SMU Data and Models

SMU survey: Mills remain open to negotiate prices, most buyers say

Written by Brett Linton

October 10, 2024

The majority of steel buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price on new orders, according to our latest market survey. Negotiation rates have consistently been in the 70-80% range for over two months, relatively strong in comparison to levels seen across the past year

SMU polls hundreds of steel market executives every other week asking if domestic mills are willing to negotiate lower spot pricing on new orders. As shown in Figure 1, 78% of all buyers we surveyed this week reported that mills were flexible on price. This is now the highest negotiation rate recorded since late July, having ticked higher each of the last four weeks.  

Negotiation rates by product

As seen in Figure 2, negotiation rates differ across our various sheet and plate products, ranging from 63-92%. Negotiation rates were highest for coated and hot-rolled products. The biggest movers from our prior survey were plate and hot rolled. Negotiation rates by product are:

  • Hot rolled: 79%, up 16 percentage points from Sept. 25. This is the highest rate recorded since July.
  • Cold rolled: 73%, down two percentage points.
  • Galvanized: 88%, up five percentage points.
  • Galvalume: 92%, unchanged and the highest rate seen since July.
  • Plate: 63%, down 20 percentage points and the lowest since February.

Here’s what some survey respondents had to say:

“[Hot rolled] depends on the mill, more tons can achieve some type of quantity discount, but less discount available than previous weeks.”

“I think eventually [galvanized] prices trend up with less import being booked, but still seems to be the one product mills are willing to chase.”

“It is going to take a lot of steel to rebuild and repair what has been damaged by hurricane Helene and Milton. [Plate] prices are not going down anytime soon. I would not be surprised to see an $80-$100/ton increase on discrete plate.”

“Depends on the [plate] tonnage.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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