Consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month

The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and the labor market, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years, and below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead, according to The Conference Board.

Gloomy outlook

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators, at The Conference Board.

“Of the index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral,” Guichard continued.

She said that consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, “with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low.”

“Meanwhile,” she added, “consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”

Purchasing plans

On a six-month moving average basis, plans to buy homes and cars declined, The Conference Board found.

Still, intentions to buy big-ticket items, like appliances and electronics, ticked up, which may be due to people seeking to buy before tariffs kick in.

The survey found average 12-month inflation expectations rose again — from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March — as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.

_{Note: The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The index is based on 1985 = 100. The composite value of consumer confidence combines the view of the present situation and expectations for the next six months.}