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    CRU: Trump’s sweeping tariffs could derail the US met coal industry

    Written by Banmeet Khurmi


    The US government’s ‘Liberation Day tariffs’ intend to reshore industrial production and rebalance lopsided trade balances. This could lead to US metallurgical coal exporters (many already high-cost swing producers) being priced out of the market.

    Most US coal production and employment occurs within Donald Trump’s political heartlands. Any short-term upside to domestic steel production from tariffs cannot match the sheer scale of US metallurgical coal that could become unprofitable to export.

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.