Steel market chatter this week

If you’re looking for a quick summary, we used ChatGPT to analyze all of the responses and identify four key themes:

• Tariff volatility is disrupting expectations, with buyers split on whether pricing will rise, rebound, or continue to decline through summer.
• Demand remains soft or declining, driven by uncertainty, cautious purchasing, and buyer attempts to time falling prices.
• Inventories are sluggish, moving slower than last year for most, as buyers minimize exposure and hold off on restocking.
• Tariff uncertainty dominates sentiment, with few clear benefits, rising concerns, and little confidence that reshoring will fill gaps.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Hard to say with the recent tariff announcement. Mills are already seeing low demand.”

“Stable to higher… The tariff threat put in a higher bottom.”

“With the 50% tariff announced it seems pricing is headed back up.”

“Prior to Friday afternoon, I thought we’d see a continued collapse. Now I’m not so sure. Demand is still crappy across the board, but we all know domestics will try to raise prices this week.”

“The new announcement on tariffs has the potential to shorten the downside, I would have said down over the next month and then a rebound in the following two months.”

“Down in June and July but reversing course sometime in August.”

“Plate we fully expect to see steady pricing. Maybe a slight increase end of August we are hearing.”

“Flat to marginally down.”

“Down, but nothing major. Demand will decline as typical for the summer but as long as steel mills accept some capacity utilization reductions, all will be well.”

“Continue to slowly drop. Still no big demand on the horizon.”

“Lower – uncertainty, economy, and interest rates.”

“I expect HR prices to dwindle down to maybe $800 per ton within the next three months.”

“Will be down due to low demand for construction and automotive industries.”

“Down, low demand doesn’t support high cost.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Stable, but spot activity is getting stronger as inventories are being depleted without much restocking.”

“Demand still seems lousy for everyone. All of the ‘noise’ continues to keep the cash on the sidelines.”

“Demand is stable, but largely down since Trump was elected.”

“Stable to declining, customers are stocked up.”

“Stable but low.”

“Declining, still not seeing a tariff induced rush (but it’s early).”

“Declining, too much uncertainty in the market and the 50% tariff is likely going to make it worse.”

“Demand is declining, but mostly due to buyers trying to time the market.  Buyers are depleting inventories, knowing that the longer they wait, the better contract prices will be, and they believe spot prices still have room to go down.”

“Slowing – uncertainty, economy, and interest rates.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving slower than prior to tariff uncertainty.”

“Slower, future bookings are minimal.”

“Slower, declining following steel prices.”

“Slower, demand is low.”

“About the same.”

“Inventory is probably moving about the same as last year, but we’re purposefully keeping less material on the ground.”

“Plate inventory is moving at a steady pace.”

“Faster.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Uncertainty is rising; 62%  of buyers say they are not sure if the new tariffs will help their business, up from 51% two weeks ago. Almost 35% feel their businesses are not benefiting, compared to 40% in mid-May. The remaining 4% believe the tariffs are helping, down from 9%. Comments included:

“We have been hopeful they would help and still are that they will help us further out into the future, but so far they are hurting us.”

“Every time we get a Tweet, Post, etc. it makes people worried and cautious. We want everyone spending money!”

“Uncertainty kills the market regardless of the tariffs, which change from week to week.”

“The initial price bump was favorable, long-term projection is TBD.”

“Too volatile right now.”

“Everyone is looking for advice these days, including myself – and I am a consultant.”

“Seeing signs of reshoring.”

“I am hearing about some reshoring, but not yet seeing it or hearing about it from my customer base.”

“The reshoring headlines are there, but no one is actually coming back.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Who the heck knows?!? Ha! I would say as of this very moment, imports are not attractive.”

“Not attractive due to domestic customer requirements.”

“Plate imports are currently not attractive for numerous reasons including the newly discussed tariffs getting raised to 50%.”

“No, due to lead time and tariff unknowns.”

“Still not. Every time you think there is an opening or at least some clarity, TACO throws another wrench in the gearbox.”

“Not interested, too much risk and uncertainty.”

“Imports are still attractive in spite of tariff threats.”

“Yes, until tariffs doubled…”

“On paper yes, but with the domestic market prices falling and now a potential of 50% tariff on steel imports, who wants the risk.”

“Yes but dependent on tariffs.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Inventories are falling, shipments have been good into June, imports are expected to be less. So is demand really declining that much for the second half, or are buyers just trying to drive the market down, and what impact will that have on prices?”

“Metal manufacturers and service centers continue to enjoy stable demand, but production backlogs have been erased by and large, leading to short schedules and curtailed work weeks.”

“The slowdown of the overall market.”

“Cliffs idling Riverdale, leaving one hi carbon and alloy producer in the US.”

“Carbon pricing is going to become a factor due to instability in the market.”

“The overall environment on the West Coast is very different now – UPI is gone, CSI is pretty much just a Nucor outpost now, Imports are getting blasted and at some point the Evraz NA sale will go through.”