SMU Survey: Mills less negotiable on sheet prices, buyers say

SMU polls thousands of buyers every other week asking if domestic mills are negotiable on new spot order pricing. In our latest survey, 59% of respondents said that mills were willing to talk price to secure orders, 30 percentage points lower than our previous survey (Figure 1).

Recall that back in February and March, mills had held a firmer stance on prices when tariff headlines pushed the market higher. That power shifted back to buyers across April and May, when negotiation rates rose to some of the highest levels recorded this year. Recent tariff headlines have again prompted mills to take a firmer stance, but market conditions may challenge that position.

Negotiation rates by product

Negotiation rates eased for all four of the sheet products we track but climbed higher on plate (Figure 2). Current rates are as follows:

• Hot rolled: 59% of buyers said mills are negotiable on price, down 35 percentage points from late May’s five-month high.
• Cold rolled: 42%, down 41 points.
• Galvanized: 64%, down 25 points.
• Galvalume: 61%, down 31 points.
• Plate: 92%, rising nine points to the highest level seen this year.

Steel buyer remarks:

“Mills are feeling bullish and pulled deals off the table that were in play last week. They are two months too early.”

“We are still hearing about mills willing to negotiate on pricing, which I think is pretty telling.”

“[Not negotiable on hot rolled], seems like they’re waiting to drive prices up.”

“Think there is a little room as lead times are still short. We were quoted hot roll today with a June ship date.”

“They had been [negotiable on hot rolled], not sure what this week brings.”

“Negotiable on plate with tons.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.