HVAC equipment shipments ease in April following March rebound

Heating and cooling shipments totaled 1.90 million units in April, down 156,000 units from the previous month (Figure 1, left). April shipments are down 8% m/m but 3% above levels the same month time last year.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal fluctuations, shipments can be annualized as a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to better showcase trends. On this basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through the end of 2023. Shipments began to recover in early 2024 and have continued to do so since. The April 12MMA is up to 1.88 million units, the highest rate seen in over two years (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product

• Following the three-year high seen in March, water heater shipments fell 11% m/m in April to 842,000 units. April levels were down 3% compared to the same month last year.  
• Shipments of warm air furnaces fell 12% from March’s six-month high to 266,000 units in April. Furnace shipments were 13% higher than the same month last year, marking the 11th consecutive month with positive annual growth.
• Air conditioners and heat pump shipments eased 3% m/m in April to 796,000 units, receding from a six-month high the prior month. Shipments were 6% higher this year compared to the same month of 2024. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as evident in Figure 2.

Annual growth led by cooling equipment

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis:

• Air conditioner and heat pump shipments experienced the largest annual gain, 15% higher than year ago levels. This marks the seventh-consecutive month of positive annual growth, as well as one of the highest rates witnessed since 2021.
• Warm air furnace shipments grew by 14% year over year (y/y), the sixth month of positive annual growth and the highest rate witnessed in over three years.
• Water heater shipments saw negative annual growth for the third-consecutive month, down 2% from the previous year. This rate has steadily declined following the mid-2024 peak and turned negative back in February.

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