Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked ChatGPT to analyze all of the responses and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Tariff uncertainty is clouding visibility, making buyers cautious and limiting inventory commitments.
• Demand is weak to stagnant, with little sign of sustained improvement beyond short bursts.
• Most buyers are unsure or negative on Trump’s tariffs, citing inflated prices, economic strain, and lack of clarity.
• Inventories are moving slower than last year, though leaner stocking is helping avoid excess.
• Imports remain unattractive for most, as volatile pricing and policy risks tilt favor toward domestic supply.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I expect prices to rise in the next month, but ultimately they will push too high and buyers will work to reduce in the two months following. A lot is riding on tariffs and what happens with Canada.”

“Prices will increase until the reality of weak demand hits home.”

“Up, the distribution market is guarding purchases to minimize inventories. At some point, replenishment will be necessary.”

“Rise slowly as long as the 50% tariff stays in place.”

“Up, up, and up. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. Oil, oil, oil.”

“Plate is expected to go up over the next 90 days.”

“Demand is still low and supply is still coming, resulting in pricing that should be lower, but tariff issues could be a wild card.”

“Flat to finish June, then slight increase that plateaus through Q3. Q4 is a wild card.”

“Who knows in today’s up and down, tariff-driven environment … but we expect prices to flatten.”

“Flat with small movements up and down until we have clarity with tariffs and demand (which is somewhat impacted by tariffs).”

“Flat, demand is low.”

“Stagnation on plate, the same as it has been for several months now.”

“Sideways to slightly down. Tariff panic buying will subside, auto slowdowns are right around the corner, and underlying demand is just OK.”

“We are still anticipating pricing to fall. We think this is a momentary blip up and that we’ll see indices retreat once Canada and Mexico reach deals on the steel tariffs.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Demand is stable to declining. I don’t know anyone who is outwardly bullish and/or busy right now.”

“Demand is weak and softening. Trump’s tariffs (reciprocal, and steel and aluminum) are terrible and will destroy this economy.”

“Stable to declining. Due to weak end-user demand, possibly a summer lull, and tariff uncertainty.”

“Plate demand is stable to soft in some cases.”

“Declining, uncertainty in economic policies.”

“Seasonally slow.”

“Declining, people are not aggressively buying since they are unsure of demand.”

“Demand is stable, but spot buying is showing signs of life after being dead.”

“After a burst of buying activity following Trump’s tariff increases, I saw a nice burst of purchasing activity, but the last few business days have been very quiet.”

“About the same as last year, customers buying needs only.”

“We think demand is improving slightly as customers are slowly learning how to manage their business in today’s uncertain market conditions.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving more slowly as my shipments are down over 27% this year vs. March-May 2024.”

“A little slower but not by much – after the first quarter last year we began seeing demand decline.”

“Slower, with so much uncertainty.”

“Slower, as is the market.”

“Plate inventories are steady to slower.”

“Same speed roughly.”

“Inventory is moving faster for us, but that isn’t a true indication, as we’re stocking so much less right now.”

“Faster than last year as business has picked up due to new product launches.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

More than half of the buyers responding to this question (59%) are unsure if tariffs are helping or hurting their business. Just over a third (34%) said their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs, while 7% feel the tariffs help their business.

Comments included:

“We initially felt the tariffs would be beneficial, but the uncertainty they are creating is causing issues.”

“Nobody has any confidence of what the future will look like, it is almost impossible to navigate.”

“Tariffs will destroy our economy.”

“They are killing the construction and automotive industries.”

“No, they drive uncertainty. Being a Canadian producer, prices are inflated due to the steel and aluminum tariffs.”

“The noise is just brutal. No one is out there spending money right now.”

“No, we rely on imported steel.”

“So much wait and see may actually be hindering the market.”

“If there were some kind of end-user demand, they would be helping.”

“They helped at first, but not like his last implementation.”

“Near-term impact has been positive, long-term impact TBD.”

“We have Canadian competitors who should be paying tariffs to import, but summer is our slow time of year, so we’ll see how that will play out if the 50% tariffs are still in place in a couple months.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“In some cases imports are more attractive depending on the grade. However, in most cases domestic prices are the most competitive.”

“Usually, but import offers are slowing.”

“Only the lighter-gauge material imports are more attractive.”

“They will be soon, the fear of uncertainty will stop buyers from responding.”

“They are not currently, but if prices prove to be in the high $800s, then they will be attractive again.”

“A bit of a ‘Who knows? right now with the tariff situation. Lead times sure aren’t any good, though.”

“Too hard to tell right now, lots of tons in motion waiting on news, current offers are too fluid.”

“Imports are risky and not attractive now.”

“Imports have not been attractive since 2024 because of market volatility and risk. New tariffs should eliminate any imports.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“It’s a buyer’s market but doesn’t feel like it – at least that’s what the data suggests.”

“The advantages of manufacturing in North American vs. Europe. Europe is being targeted for growth by companies in Asia and has become a highly price sensitive market. The stable steel supply combined with our skilled work force makes North America a strong option for capital investment and expansions.”

“There is definitely a disconnect between Nucor’s and Cliffs’ ‘indices’ and the actual market pricing. I feel bad for CSI on the West Coast having to battle their own internal number.”

“The economy is not that great.”

“There is a larger plan that seems to be happening, which is good, and overcapacity in Asia.”

“Are inventories low enough to combat the summer slowdown?”

“Cliffs idle of Riverdale, Ill., will have large impacts on the high carbon and alloy market, as there are limited alternate domestic producers.”

“Imports are down massively, and it still is barely slowing down the fall in the market, demand is so weak right now.”

“Brazilian steel import market.”

“Is there no interest in buying Evraz?”