SMU Market Chatter: Uncertainty reigns this Independence Day

I’m no doctor, but I would suggest a dual diagnosis of extreme tariff fatigue and summer doldrums.

You be the judge, though. Below are some of the comments we received this week, straight out of the mouths of North American steel buyers.

How is demand for your products?

“Weak and slowing.”

“Slower than seasonally normal.”

“Doubling of the 25% tariffs is debilitating.”

“No one is out there aggressively spending CapEx dollars, and that is bad for our core business.”

“Very busy after Trump announced the latest round of 232 tariffs, progressively quieter after that announcement.”

“Flattened last week after a month of increases. But we see demand increases being signaled by several customers.”

Are you an active buyer or on the sidelines, and why?

“Active for back-to-back contracts only. No speculation.”

“Active, but only what we need. We have been reducing inventory with sales declining.”

“Active, only to replenish stock sold.”

“Sidelines – Mill and index pricing are not competitive. And we already pre-bought through the third quarter.”

“Sidelines – The exception is tin mill products.”

“Sidelines – We might be in the minority here. But we think prices are about to fall again.”

When do you think sheet prices will peak, and why?

“Already peaked – Demand is very weak. Especially heading into the summer months.”

“Already peaked – Demand is weak, inventories are high, and lead times are short.”

“Already peaked – Uncertainty is keeping predictability and confidence at bay.”

“Already peaked – Hard to believe that pricing will go up in the summertime, which is the slowest time of the year.”

“Already peaked – I think trade deals with Mexico and/or Canada get announced, and this market returns to falling back down. Demand is just too crappy everywhere.”

“July – May have already peaked, but demand is low going into summer doldrums.”

“July – Demand is soft. Price increases are counterintuitive.”

“July – Just does not seem like buyers will let it get much higher.”

“July – Simply based on the cost of imported steel, I expect domestic steel prices to rise a little further.”

“August – Prices will increase if no changes in Section 232 tariffs and if true demand starts to increase.”

“August – Still see prices inching upwards until tariff clarity, or Middle East escalation.”

“September – Demand has been suppressed thus far. The back half of the year should recover.”

“September – They will hit a plateau in late Q3 for a while.”

“October or later – Cycles will remain short. But I believe pricing will peak in late September/early October on the back of a moderate scrap/input cost increases and an auto uptick.”

“October or later – Based on demand and supply, I don’t feel we will have much of a peak with prices staying fairly flat until we have economic/tariff clarity.”

“October or later – The full effect of the tariffs and doubling of the 25% has not yet been reflected in the market.”

“October or later – Trump’s going to get it rolling.”

How will your company perform this month compared to your forecast?

“June was better than expected.”

“We will meet in June, but July-August is definitely worrisome.”

“This is our seasonally slow time of year. But we’ve reduced forecast coming into each month this quarter, and we still missed by 5-10% each month.“

“Tariff merry-go-round has everyone being over-cautious and conservative on buying.”

“It sure seems we’re trending toward lesser sales.“

“Demand is solid. But pricing remains under pressure.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

“Pricing in the US is higher. Does not make sense to reshore.”

“I’m hearing more and more about it, but not yet seeing it in my customer base.”

“Limited instances, but reshoring is happening – just not sure it’s enough to move the needle.”

“Yes, but only on a small scale.”

“Yes, autos, appliance, pipe & tube in particular.”

“It takes a lot of time, and Trump’s uncertainty factor and interest rates still need to go down.”

“A little. But many products have no plants to re-open. They have to be built, which takes years, not months.“

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business? Why or why not?

“I’m not sure. At times yes, other times no.”

“I’m not sure. Too much up and down. Nobody knows what is tariffed and what isn’t.”

“No. Causing uncertainty in market, contributing to slow demand.”

“No. Too much chaos.”

“No. Too unstable.”

“No. The continuous changes are causing too much uncertainty and reducing end-product demand.”

“No. Any semblance of consumer confidence is gone.”

“No. Pushing steel pricing up when demand is low, affecting margins.”

“No. There is a level of reliance on import availability.”

“No. They are hurting our business and driving up costs for manufacturers.”

“Yes. Helped in the short term, jury is still out on the long term. But early future indicators appear to be positive.”

“No. Hurting it and the general economy, which will just start to truly be felt in the next 30-45 days as consumers get sticker shock!”

“I’m not sure. Cannot be sure of anything with Trump.”

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Thank you to all who took part in this week’s survey! If you don’t already participate but find value in our survey results and Market Chatter articles, others will find value in hearing your thoughts as well! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com for more information about being included in our market questionnaires and sharing your thoughts with the SMU community.