Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool Orac to analyze all of the responses and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Tariff uncertainty is freezing decisions, with buyers hesitant to act amid unclear policy impacts.
• Demand remains weak and cautious, with most buying only what’s needed.
• Prices are driven by external forces, like tariffs and raw material costs, not fundamentals.
• Reshoring and import shifts are mostly talk, with little real impact on demand so far.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Prices will trend higher due to fewer imports, higher raw material costs and more clarity on tariffs and demand.”

“Based on the tariffs on Brazilian pig iron/metallics, I expect prices to trend up over the next three months.”

“Plate will remain flat to slightly up.”

“I think they will be stable to up slightly as all the trade deals are completed.”

“Stay steady until possibly Q4.”

“Small up and down movements week over week. Overall steel demand is not strong.”

“Firm due to government manipulation and controlled shutdowns.”

“Flat unless tariffs are lifted, then prices will drop.”

“I really do not see prices changing much. Buyers believe they should go down, but tariffs on steel remain in place and demand is okay.”

“We are still expecting prices to slide on poor demand, buuuttttt the issues with input costs could obviously flip that narrative.”

“Moderately downward as fear in the market continues to fade.”

“Decline, demand is so weak nobody is making any major purchases since forecasting is almost impossible in the current environment.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is improving from the holiday, but just back to what it was before the holiday.”

“Stable, waiting on consumer confidence to improve.”

“Stable, the tariff impact on pricing is still to be implemented.”

“Stable to declining in many cases.”

“Stable, customer inventory is declining, and we expect new orders in September.”

“Declining, futures are incorrectly pricing in contango when we will be lucky to be flat.”

“Declining due to instability of economic policy.”

“Declining due to interest rates too high and tariff fatigue.”

“Flat to down due to tariff and demand uncertainty.”

“Stable to down. Nothing horrible, but nothing to write home about.”

“Stable, but below our 2025 forecast.”

“Stable, customers are buying on needs only.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, summer shutdowns.”

“Slower due to less demand.”

“Plate inventory is moving slower.”

“Inventory is moving at about the same clip, but we are admittedly keeping much less in stock (on purpose).”

“About the same.”

“Faster as we are carrying less inventory.”

“It feels like faster, just because we started to slow down in this period last year with the upcoming election.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Exactly half of the buyers responding to this question say their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs, a slightly higher rate than in prior surveys. The vast remainder (43%) are unsure how the policies will impact their business, down from 51% in mid-July. Just 7% believe tariffs are helping their business, in line with recent surveys. Comments included:

“The unease and general unknowns have forced all capital back to the sidelines. What a bummer.”

“No, uncertainty is resulting in projects being put on hold.”

“Crushed demand and optimism in the market.”

“Not yet, other than the rushes to buy in order to beat the tariffs.”

“Tariffs are a tax on the American people and will raise prices and slow our economy.”

“The uncertainty they are contributing to (there are other factors impacting uncertainty) is causing customers to stay on the sidelines.”

“They are actually keeping prices elevated, but also keeping buyers unwilling to commit.”

“Hoping they are helpful in the long run.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Responses were split on this question, with 38% responding ‘No’ and an equal percentage saying it is too early to tell. The remaining 24% reported seeing signs of reshoring. Comments included:

“Conversations are starting.”

“Yes, in the automotive business.”

“I’m hearing announcements about many companies building factories here in the US, but I’m not yet seeing any increased demand.”

“A lot of customers are exploring the possibility.”

“Small amounts, but more expected.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Tariffs are keeping imports unattractive.”

“No, prices are not competitive enough to risk the long lead time.”

“They are not due to prices and lead times.”

“Not yet, tariffs determine everything these days.”

“No, fear of retribution by government.”

“Not attractive, and most of our customers require domestic.”

“Imports are dead.”

“Hit or miss, imports can be had but challenging to navigate.”

“Depends on the item and the tariffs associated with the country.”

“Only on light gauge materials.”

“They remain similar to domestic prices due to tariffs.”

“For us in the southeast, imports are more attractive.”

“Imports are okay, better than domestic prices.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Imports are down massively, and mills still need orders. Nobody is buying steel and there is plenty of supply from distributors to cover near term needs. Demand is that bad.”

“Is demand really that bad?”

“I’d love for more explanation of the tariffs or other protectionist measures that foreign companies put on American goods so we Americans aren’t so resentful about Trump’s tariffs.”

“It seems like a lot of smaller fab shops and service centers are going out of business. I wonder if that’ll become a bigger issue (and/or if we’ll see it with bigger companies too).”

“Scrap pricing in Turkey.”

“Why does Cliffs keep selling at extremely low prices to high-volume buyers when they are supposed to be helping to stabilize the market.”

“Cliffs needs a cash infusion.”

“What is the future of Cliffs….”