Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Nearly every buyer we polled expects prices to continue rising in the short term.
• The majority report demand is improving, while a small remainder consider it stable.
• Most say inventories are moving faster today than they were a year ago, supported by limited mill availability and extended lead times.
• The attractiveness of imported material is growing for many due to both price and availability.
• Most remain unsure whether Trump’s tariff policies are benefiting their businesses, and views were mixed on whether manufacturing reshoring is taking place.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Crazy to say, but I think it keeps climbing higher. I don’t see a reprieve until 2027 deliveries. Wild.”

“Upward due to tight capacity and lengthy lead times.”

“I expect hot-rolled pricing to continue to move up but at a slower pace than what it has been, provided there are no significant changes in the market on either the demand or supply side.”

“I expect prices to continue to increase slowly until they reach $1,200 for HRC. Not sure what happens once they get there.”

“Due to limited availability and long lead times, we don’t see mills dropping their prices at all. If anything, we see mills more likely to increase their prices.”

“Plate will go up.”

“Pricing will increase unless quota volumes are increased to meet demand.”

“Seems the mills are doing a good job of keeping prices up. I think prices will trend gradually up.”

“Continue to rise slowly.”

“Up for a couple of months, then likely dropping slowly.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is improving, which only puts more gasoline on the fire.”

“Demand seems to be increasing due to other service centers seemingly having so little to sell.”

“Plate demand is improving with projects.”

“Improving, but still not to 100% capacity.”

“Demand is improving due to tariffs and quotas even though overall demand is stable.”

“Demand is stable but appears to be improving because inventories are so low.”

“Stable to up slightly.”

“Demand has been stable, nothing stellar but keeping us busy.”

“Stable enough for the mills to keep lead times extended.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving much faster, it seems to be out the door the second it finally arrives from the mill.”

“Faster, it seems, due to increased sales. Most orders are hot due to limited availability/outages at other service centers.”

“Faster, mostly due to working ‘hand-to-mouth’ out of the mill with late orders.”

“Inventory is probably moving faster, but we’re honestly trying to keep less in stock too. A tough balancing act.”

“Inventory is moving faster this year because inventories are so short.”

“Faster due to tariffs and buying up front to meet supply requirements.”

“Plate inventory is moving much better.”

“Slightly faster.”

“It is almost identical to last year.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

On this topic, 40% are unsure how the policies will impact their business. Almost 33% feel their businesses are benefiting from tariffs, while 27% believe the tariffs are not helping them.

Comments included:

“I’m not sure, I have not seen any benefit yet. The tariffs are just giving mills the ability to jack prices up.”

“Yes, inventory values are increasing and imports are not being disruptive to the market.”

“Yes, it was Trump’s tariffs that started this run-up in prices and profits are increasing due to rising prices.”

“No, driving steel pricing up for our company.”

“No, the unnecessary noise is bad for us all. I too think USMCA shouldn’t have any steel tariffs.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

This question was equally split. A third of respondents answered it is too early to tell, a third reported they are not seeing any signs of reshoring, and a third said they have seen some evidence.

Comments included:

“The headlines are of course there, but we haven’t seen anything actually helping us.”

“I see inquiries and company references, but nothing confirmed.”

“I go back and forth on this one. Sometimes I think the increased demand may, to some extent, be from some reshoring. Otherwise, I’m not hearing too much about reshoring.”

“Too early to say. More announcements than actual demand at this point.”

“Yes, quota levels are pushing up North American demand.”

“Yes, parts of the automotive supply chain have become much more localized over the past 18 months.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are definitely there, both in pricing and lead time. Everyone I know has imports coming in.”

“Yes, they are more attractive on a pricing front and also more of a need at this point in time vs. starting the year.”

“Attractive, domestic tons unavailable.”

“As far as I can tell, the price of Asian hot rolled is more attractively priced, but buying material from overseas with a four month or so lead time certainly carries some risks, including the fact that some customers can’t/won’t use imported steel.”

“Yes, but quotas are limiting the volume that can be purchased.”

“Yes on light-gauge painted.”

“Starting to look more attractive…”

“For HRC, they are not attractive due to customers requiring domestic. For structural shapes, foreign is very attractive due to lead times.”

“They are not currently, at least for HDG and other coated products, but that could shift over the next 30-60 days.”

“Plate imports are few and far between and not attractive.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“I’m not saying that there’s much to buy but… the risk of buying too much inventory at these inflated prices.”

“Additional capacity coming online over the next two years and how will the market incorporate this volume increase.”

“Will we ever see the artist formerly known as AHMSA sell steel again?!?”

“The upcoming union negotiations with U.S. Steel and Cleveland Cliffs. Will it just be panic or a complete mess for steel buyers?”