Housing starts plummeted 11.2 percent in December to a more than two-year low, signaling continued slowing in the housing market. Single-family starts fell 6.7 percent from November, while multifamily starts plunged 22 percent. “Looking back, the December drop in housing production correlated with the peak increase in mortgage rates and corresponding decline in builder sentiment,” […]
The rate of price growth for homes in the United States continued its slowing trend in December. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index grew 4.7 percent year-over-year in December compared to a gain of 5.1 percent in November. The 20-City composite posted a 4.2 percent year-over-year gain compared to 4.6 percent […]
Flat rolled steel service centers are beginning to believe a change in spot pricing is necessary. We saw a precipitous decline in the percentage of distributors who were lowering their spot pricing to their customers compared to a couple of weeks ago. One of the proprietary indices created by Steel Market Update is our Service […]
Industry sentiment remains well below levels of a year ago, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. While still at a healthy level and solidly within the optimistic range, sentiment is clearly being tempered by the many market uncertainties. Now that it appears steel prices have hit bottom and may be on […]
The Bureau of Industry and Security today denied the exclusion exemptions for two mills: California Steel Industries and Evraz. At this point, we are expecting the NLMK USA and JSW USA exclusion requests to be denied as well. However, a trade attorney (not Lewis) suggested that we not move too fast with any proclamations. There […]
It’s Oscar night. I will try to keep my final thoughts brief. President Trump has delayed the increase in the Section 301 tariffs against China. The deadline was March 2, 2019. No new deadline has been set. However, President Xi of China will meet with President Trump in Florida in the later part of March. […]
This morning, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled from Neutral to Higher. Our Price Momentum Indicator was last adjusted on Jan. 28, 2019, when we moved from Lower to Neutral as the domestic steel mills, led by Nucor, began announcing price increases. It is normal for SMU to adjust our […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel continue to inch out as market momentum shifts toward strengthening steel prices. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mills. The busier the mills, the less likely they are to […]
With steel prices in transition following last month’s price increase announcement from the major mills, the tone of negotiations between producers and buyers appears mixed. The majority of buyers report the mills are still willing to talk price on all products but plate, but fewer in the high-demand categories of hot rolled and galvanized. Most […]
Existing home sales fell for the third month in January for the lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since November 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales dipped 1.2 percent from December to a SAAR of 4.94 million homes last month. Compared to a year ago, sales were down 8.5 percent. “Existing home sales […]
A few weeks back I was having a conversation with the head of commercial for one of the domestic steel mills. The conversation centered around the influence Steel Market Update was having on their order book. In particular, the discussion focused on the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. I was told when our indicator moves to […]
The domestic steel mills have been able to put a floor on flat rolled steel prices since Nucor announced their $40 per ton price increase on Jan. 28, 2019. Now that they have a firm floor, the mills are slowly moving prices higher. In the process, they are very slowly shifting momentum. Steel Market Update […]
I am chomping on the bit as today we managed to book a nationally known and widely recognized speaker who will (I hope) hold everyone in their seats until the end of our SMU Steel Summit Conference. When booking your travel to Atlanta for our conference, you will want to arrive as early Monday morning […]
It’s time to start thinking (and planning) for what you, your family and your company are going to do should the United States and China fail to reach a trade agreement. The Trump administration has threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion worth of products produced by Chinese factories. So far, President Trump […]
Earlier this week I was at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference as I was asked to be the master of ceremonies, and I also moderated the two main panels on Wednesday morning. Both panels dealt with trade issues with the primary focus being on the Section 232 tariffs on steel. The Port of Tampa […]
Steel Market Update asked: Will the newly announced flat rolled price increase “stick” and be collected? Maybe not, said most respondents to SMU’s market trends questionnaire last week, but it will at least stop the slide. Looking at the data, very few expect the mills to collect the full $40 per ton increase they announced […]
I am in Tampa, Fla., where I will be the master of ceremonies and the moderator of two panels regarding trade and trade policy at the 30th Port of Tampa Steel Conference. Originally, I was only going to moderate one panel, but weather in the Northeast has fouled up air travel and the original moderator’s […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen little change since the beginning of the year as the market seeks a sense of direction. While still well within the “optimistic” range, the index has been on a downward trajectory for months. SMU is consistantly seeing both our Current Sentiment Index as well as our […]
Flat rolled steel distributors have been slowly backing away from offering spot prices to their end customers at lower numbers than what was seen a couple of weeks ago. At the same time, these same service centers are reporting difficulties getting those same end user customers to pay higher prices, despite the price increase announcements […]
Construction is pulling ahead of manufacturing as a job creator, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In January, 296,000 jobs were created in the private sector and 8,000 in government. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work […]
I continue to get mixed messages regarding the strength of the flat rolled steel market, and specifically lead times and pricing. I have heard from a number of steel buyers of longer lead times on galvanized at a couple of mills. The strength does not yet seem to be universal. Neither is the weakness. For […]
Now in the second month of the new year, shortly after the mills announced a $40 price increase, price negotiations appear to be tightening up a very small bit. Buyers generally report that the mills are still willing to talk price on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and to a lesser degree Galvalume. On the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have extended slightly in the past few weeks, lending support to those who believe the market is near the bottom. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mills. The busier […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose 4.7 percent in January to 157.7 from a revised reading of 150.6 in December. The bounce back reversed December’s decline and put it in line with the average index reading for the second half of 2018. Institutional projects gained traction in January driven by public funding for schools and transportation […]
There is a considerable amount of information/debate happening in Washington, D.C., Canada, Mexico, China and Europe regarding tariffs either in place or being threatened by the Trump administration. We included a press release in tonight’s issue that was sent out by Wilbur Ross of the U.S. Department of Commerce earlier this week. U.S. Trade Representative […]
One constant I am hearing during my phone and email conversations is that January was a good month for shipments and February has started out strong. The construction community is pleasantly surprised, and I really have not heard anyone say business is bad in any market segment. One of the mills pointed out that much […]
Auto sales dipped in January as cold weather and the government shutdown chilled consumer demand. Automotive News estimated the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate at 16.9 million, down from 17.72 million in December and 17.22 million in January 2018. Light trucks and SUVs continued to carry sales, inching up 0.3 percent while sales of cars […]
Total heating and cooling equipment shipments in December rose 3.0 percent compared to one year ago, according to data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) on Friday. Excluding the 5.1 percent slip last September, total monthly equipment shipments on a year-over-year basis have increased every month since November 2016. Residential and commercial […]
It’s Super Bowl Sunday and I expect everyone’s focus is on the game and not on business. Mine, and my team’s, will be as well. Here’s hoping for a great game and that the best team wins (without any help from the referees). Because of the game, and the desire for not only your family […]
Key Market Indicators in January, indicators of the present situation, remained strong, but trends deteriorated to the weakest level in two years. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of and provide forward guidance for the steel market. Due to the government shutdown, 13 of the 36 indicators were […]