Category: Analysis

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

It’s another week of big headlines and ho-hum pricing moves – which is to say the start of 2025 is looking a lot like the end of 2024. Scrap has settled up $20 per gross ton (gt). Steel prices, however, were a soft sideways this week. Chalk it up to uneven demand and abundant supply. And while we’re not aware of any major outages, some of you tell us that you’ve lost some shipping days here and there because of the recent cold snap.

Steel prices ticked lower this week for four of the five products SMU tracks, according to our latest canvass of the sheet and plate markets. Following last week’s bump, our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, and plate indices all edged lower this week by $5-15 per short ton (st) on average. Galvalume was the only […]

Reflecting on 2024 and looking ahead to the new year, galvanized steel buyers on this month’s HARDI call expressed a mix of cautious optimism with lingering uncertainties.

Monthly shipments of heating and cooling equipment decreased from October to November, according to the latest data released from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). November shipments fell 12% month on month (m/m) to 1.69 million units (Figure 1, left). This follows typical seasonal declines, as the monthly decrease from October to November has […]

Raw steel mill production increased last week, according to the most recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market fell to a multi-month low in November, according to an analysis of Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.

The amount of steel exiting the country continued to decline through November, falling to an 11-month low, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. This is the third month in a row that steel exports have eased and the second-lowest monthly rate recorded in almost two years.

US mill secures $22 M funding for Nexcast project US-based rolling mill, Golden Aluminum, has secured $22.3 million in government funding for its next generation mini mill project. The company was awarded the funding from the US Department of Energy’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations initiative at the end of November. Golden Aluminum plans to […]

We are quickly approaching Inauguration Day. The market still has no definitive clue as to how the Trump administration will execute on its threat to apply universal tariffs to all imports. Compounding this are the threats to apply 25% duties against our USMCA partners - Canada and Mexico.

Pig iron prices declined in all regions as the EU’s 2025 import quota on Russian pig iron has begun, loosening global supply.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined in the US this week, while Canadian rig counts saw a rebound, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Domestic steel imports fell 14% from October to November to a one-year low of 2.07 million short tons (st), according to final US Commerce Department data. While steel trade has declined from early-2024 highs, November imports are slightly higher than volumes seen one year prior.

SMU lets readers respond on their thoughts about President Joe Biden blocking Nippon's deal for U.S. Steel.

Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.

Steel buyers say mills remain open to negotiation on sheet and plate spot prices this week, slightly more so than in mid-December, according to our most recent survey results.

Some world-changing events happen in an instant. Others take many twists and turns. The outcome remains unknowable at every phase. That is, until you finally arrive at the end of the roller coaster, the safety bar lifts up, and you stagger off the ride. It appears such is the case with Japan’s Nippon’s Steel Corp.’s (NSC’s) proposed $14.9-billion buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel. And the ride ain't over yet.

Steel prices didn't start the new year with a bang - but they didn't bust, either, according to SMU's first survey of 2025. On the sheet side, market participants generally predicted that prices should move higher this year on the coated trade petition and the potential for tariffs under President-elect Trump. But most buyer sources weren’t eager to load up given the uncertain timing and scope of the potential tariffs. They also cited increasing domestic capacity and modest demand.

A bleak outlook for steel demand has undermined market confidence, contributing to the drop in prices.

Prices for pig iron imports into the US continue to retreat in the face of regional weakness in demand for ferrous raw materials in South Asia and the Far East.

Domestic raw steel production is now at the lowest level seen since mid-November. This comes just two weeks after production had recovered to a three-month high.

While steel news may be starting 2025 off with a bang, Nucor’s consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil is not.

I’m not sure what to say about President Biden’s blocking Nippon Steel’s deal for U.S. Steel that hasn’t already been said. I think it’s fair to say, as U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt did, that this was ultimately all about politics and had very little to do with national security. SMU has tried to remain […]

Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices were flat in the US this week, while tags in offshore markets were mostly down.

Global steel mill output totaled 146.8 million metric tons (mt) in November, marking the third-lowest monthly rate seen in 2024 to date.

The deal was cleared by the Czech Republic’s anti-trust office which says the transaction will not distort competition.

The number of active oil and gas rigs operating in the US held steady this week for the fifth consecutive week, while Canadian activity declined further, according to the latest figures released from Baker Hughes.

We never eat chicken on New Year’s Day. My Irish-Catholic grandmother thought it was bad luck – because chickens scratch backward. And one should start the year looking forward. But it’s hard to avoid the fact that we’re carrying a lot 2024 issues (and even 2023 ones) forward into 2025. That’s not all bad. We’re starting 2025 with SMU’s hot-rolled coil price at $675/per short ton (st). That’s $370/st lower than $1045/st at the outset of 2023, according to our interactive pricing tool. I think we can safely say that a decline of that magnitude won’t happen in 2025.