Category: Analysis

What's the steel market talking about at present?

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index was flat this week, while the Future Sentiment Index slipped, according to our most recent survey data.

The LME 3-month price was broadly stable again on the morning of Feb. 16, and was last seen trading at $2,230 per metric ton (mt). On Feb. 16, LME stocks were reported at 534,925 mt, an increase of nearly 10,000 mt from last Friday. The change comes after 15,125 mt of metal was delivered into […]

What a difference a month makes. There are a few full bulls left in the room, but their numbers are dwindling. We’ll release results of our full steel market survey tomorrow afternoon. I took a sneak peak at the data on Thursday. And more people than I expected think that US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will be in the $700s per short ton (st) two months from now. Vanishingly few think prices will be above $1,000/st in mid-April.

Mill lead times for flat-rolled steel were mostly stable over the past two weeks. With several mills slow to come out of outages and upgrades, cold rolled and coated lead times have been holding up better than hot rolled.

The percentage of sheet buyers finding mills willing to negotiate spot pricing rose or remained relatively flat on the products SMU surveys, while plate slumped, according to our most recent survey data.

Flat Rolled = 60.3 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 63.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel supply declined in January, though less than expected because of a weaker-than-normal seasonal increase in shipments to start the year. At the end of January, service centers carried 60.3 shipping days of supply […]

Weak demand and pricing for graphite electrodes combined with higher costs are forcing GrafTech to implement cost-cutting procedures and reduce production across its facilities.

Sheet prices have fallen again this week on shorter lead times, higher imports, and potentially higher inventories. (We’ll see for sure when we release our service center shipment and inventory data next week.) I remember reporting almost exactly the same thing about a month ago and getting a fair amount of pushback. Not so much these days.

The US apparent steel supply moved up to 7.79 million short tons (st) in December, a rise of 2% from 7.67 million st in November, according to data from the Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US […]

The iron ore market has been largely calm, with China observing the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period, while demand in Europe and JKT has been slow to pick up. Supply has been somewhat weaker, but overall, the price has held steady. Supply from Port Hedland remained unchanged w/w despite Roy Hill having no shipments […]

What’s something going on in the market that no one is talking about? That’s a question on our survey, and was also posed to many who graced the stage at our Tampa Steel Conference. Perhaps another way to phrase that is “not talking about publicly” or connecting the dots of steel market chatter to find a uniting central issue. I thought one respondent to our survey really summed up the current moment: “Right now it is all politics.”

Steel prices stabilized in early January before they began to inflect lower midway through last month. Tags peaked at $1,045 per short ton (st) during the first week of January, even as some mills tried to push prices higher, to no avail. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices ended January at an average of $1,000/st, declining by $45/st during the month.

Based on initial license data for January, steel imports appear to have risen to a six-month high, and flat-rolled steel imports to a seven-month high.

South Korean integrated steelmaker Posco has started building a 2.5-million-metric-ton-per-year (Mt/y) electric-arc furnace (EAF) at its Gwangyang works, a key stage in the company’s transition to becoming a green steel producer.

The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

There seems to be bit of high-stakes chicken going on in the domestic sheet market. Prices have been moving lower for most of the year, and our hot-rolled (HR) coil price on Tuesday fell below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average. Crossing that threshold does not seem to have resulted in a flurry of buying activity.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) was largely unchanged in January, moving up marginally due to improved institutional conditions, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.

What are folks in the steel industry talking about? SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects this past week, including domestic steel prices, import offers, buying activity, and more. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.

2023 was the third-lowest year for steel imports in the last decade, according to an SMU analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce.

Domestic steel shipments increased in December on-year but were down from the previous month, according to the latest data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

It was another steady drip lower, down $20/st to $980/st. In other words, the kind of on-and-off declines we’ve been seeing since the start of the year.

Domestic manufacturing activity continued to draw back in January, receding for the 15th straight month, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report.

SMU’s latest survey results make it clear that the sheet market has hit an inflection point and headed lower. But while some market participants think that sheet prices might bottom within the next month or so, others expect a more protracted downturn.

Just like doing business in any part of the steel supply chain, there are risks and unknowns in trading steel. But trading companies play an important part, helping businesses navigate the risks and unknowns as they pop up.

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]

The US Midwest premium was flat week over week (w/w) at 18.8–19.4¢/lb. Again, the premium has exhibited remarkably low levels of volatility and has yet to react to news in the geopolitical or macroeconomic spaces.

Three of Japan’s major banks have agreed to lend Nippon Steel a combined $16 billion for its $14.1-billion planned acquisition of United States Steel, provided the acquisition is completed, the Japanese steelmaker said.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index edged down this week, while the Future Sentiment Index remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.