For better or worse, depending on your income and situation, it looks like President Trump and the Republicans will win a big political victory with passage of their historic tax overhaul this week. No doubt, there will be a shakeout period during which the many complicated details of the measure will be scrutinized, and their […]
It’s a real possibility the United States may withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. Despite pleas from Republican and Democratic senators, agriculture industry leaders, automotive executives, the United Steelworkers, trucking associations and many others, President Trump, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appear undeterred in their march to tear up […]
Happy Holidays to everyone. I know I have told you on a number of occasions that I am now no longer at my desk, but rather slowly moving out to sea for an extended period of rest. Well, as much rest as a workaholic can possibly get. The rest of the SMU team is busy […]
Service centers continue to hold flat rolled inventories steady at 2.89 months of supply at the end of November, according to the proprietary Steel Market Update Service Center Inventories Index (SSII). This is now the third consecutive month we have found flat rolled steel distributors’ inventories close to the three months of supply level. Contrast […]
Both flat rolled and plate steel distributors saw only a very modest drop in inventories as of the end of July. Inventories continue to be “balanced” at 2.7 months of supply on flat rolled and 2.1 months of supply on plate, according to Steel Market Update’s proprietary inventory data. Flat Rolled Spread Tightens Although our […]
The World Trade Organization finished its 11th ministerial conference on Wednesday without making significant progress on multilateral issues. Nearly 4,000 ministers, trade officials and delegates from the 164 members of the WTO attended the 11th ministerial conference, along with observers and the global press. The meetings opened on Sunday with members chafing from criticism by […]
You may or may not be aware that we updated our Steel Market Update website over the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. We updated software that controls a number of the functions of our website in order to speed up the site and to make sure that it is up-to-date over the next few years of use. […]
Washing machine manufacturers Samsung and LG won a partial victory in the Section 201 safeguard investigation initiated by Whirlpool and GE. Whirlpool is asking for quotas and a 50 percent digressive tariff on imports of all large residential washers (LRWs) in 2018. Beginning in 2019, the rate would be reduced to 49 percent and then […]
I have been working on our new service center months of supply report and I hope to have it to the distributors who provide the data tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 13). I will then publish for our Executive newsletter readers on Thursday evening. I continue to entertain adding more service centers to the mix as we […]
Domestic mills are in the driver’s seat and steel prices have nowhere to go but up, agreed most respondents to Steel Market Update’s flat roll market trends questionnaire this week. SMU contacts steel buyers twice each month to monitor their views on market conditions. Asked for their opinion on the current direction of steel prices, […]
The Section 232 investigation into steel imports fails to meet approval by the Defense Department, according to Inside U.S. Trade sources. After reviewing a draft report earlier this year, the Defense Department determined that trade restrictions proposed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross would “unnecessarily vex U.S. allies.” A source told Inside U.S. Trade that the […]
Withdrawal from NAFTA is looking more likely, said Democratic and Republican senators who met separately with President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer last week. Six Republicans who attended a meeting at the White House on Tuesday said it is likely the president will trigger the withdrawal process after the sixth round of talks […]
Preliminary antidumping duties were determined Thursday by the Department of Commerce on circular welded non-alloy steel pipe imports from South Korea. An antidumping margin of 38.16 percent was assigned to CWP manufactured by Hyundai Steel Co. and 23.17 percent duties on imports from Aju Besteel Co., Nexteel, and SeAH Steel Corp. Husteel received an antidumping […]
I have been pointing to the circumvention ruling as one of those “Black Swan” events that could come back to haunt the way importers do business. The section of the ruling that could potentially have the most teeth is the definition of what constitutes “significant transformation,” which allows substrate from one country to be converted […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers ticked up a bit in the past two weeks, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The same pattern started to appear at this time last year, leading into a strong first quarter. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ […]
The Commerce Department’s Vietnam circumvention ruling on Tuesday represents a departure in the U.S. government’s interpretation of what constitutes adding “minor or insignificant” value to a product. This is a key issue in determining whether importation of a product from a country not directly subject to a trade remedy amounts to a “circumvention” of existing […]
Mill lead times have seen little change in the past month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire, despite the price hikes announced by the mills two weeks ago. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that domestic steel mills are tightening up negotiations a bit on spot pricing, especially on cold rolled and coated products, as would be expected following the price increases announced two weeks ago. But the majority report that mills are still generally open to price discussions as the year comes […]
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned against protectionism at a meeting of business leaders in China on Wednesday, offering a thinly veiled criticism of the Trump trade agenda. “We are at a pivot point in the world right now, where we decide whether we work together in an open and confident way and succeed or whether […]
As a result of this week’s preliminary circumvention ruling, Vietnamese traders here in the United States must pay the Chinese duties on the substrate used to produce cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant) steels if they are unable to prove the substrate used was from another country. Here’s the actual ruling: “The Department of Commerce […]
Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Higher from Neutral earlier today. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We last adjusted Momentum on Oct. 18, 2017, when we moved from “Lower” to “Neutral.” We are hearing from buyers and sellers of […]
In preliminary rulings today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) and certain cold-rolled flat products imported from Vietnam, produced from substrate originating in China, are circumventing existing antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) orders. As a result, Commerce will instruct Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to begin collecting cash deposits on the […]
The Senate passed a tax bill on Dec. 2 and is now in the process of reconciling it with the legislation passed by the House last month. Steel Manufacturers Association President Philip Bell said in a statement on Saturday, “It is our hope that after reconciliation the final legislation will result in significant economic growth […]
WTO members showed restraint in imposing trade restrictive measures last year, according to the organization’s most recent annual overview report on trade-related developments. Members implemented 108 new trade-restrictive measures during the reporting period July 2016 through June 2017, an average of 9 measures per month compared to 15 per month in the previous annual report. […]
Late this afternoon, the U.S. Department of Commerce released their positive determination that Vietnam and China circumvented existing antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on cold rolled and corrosion resistant (galvanized/Galvalume) steels. This is a significant ruling and will create issues for some trading companies and steel buyers as the ruling goes back to November […]
Steel Market Update’s steel market indicators show improved trends in the November data. In our examination of data released in November, our view of the present situation is that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. The total of […]
I am sitting in the airport in Fort Lauderdale waiting on my flight to Las Vegas. I am on my way to attend the HARDI annual conference. If you are planning on and would like to meet with me during the conference, you can email or text me. My email address is John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and my […]
The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity agreed on a framework Thursday for collectively solving the world’s steel overcapacity problem. The 33 members worked together to develop specific policy recommendations using six agreed-upon principles to formulate solutions for bringing steel capacity in line with demand and reducing trade distortions. Notable is a new sharing of […]
I have been out of the office all day, so I apologize if my Final Thoughts this evening are less than inspiring… Our website designers have been busy working to resolve some of the bugs that arose when we updated our website over the weekend. The login issues have been resolved. We know there is […]
The U.S. Commerce Department has self-initiated an antidumping and countervailing investigation of imports of common alloy aluminum sheet from China. Normally, AD/CVD investigations are initiated by petitioners within the industry who allege dumping or subsidization of a product by one or more countries. Commerce may self-initiate an investigation whenever the Secretary determines a need exists […]