Category: Features

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.

While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

The Commerce Department on Tuesday issued preliminary subsidy rates in the corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) trade case. The agency set minimal countervailing duty (CVD) rates for Brazil and Mexico, mostly high rates for Vietnam, and low rates for Canada, except for one privately held distributor. Commerce assigned that company, Nova Steel, and a handful of Vietnamese […]

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through January 31st.

Steel and aluminum have been identified as high priorities for trade

Canada fights back, a little As this article was about to be posted, Canada had not backed down to US President Trump’s 25% tariffs coming for Canadian goods at the stroke of midnight. In fact, the Government of Canada had pushed back, saying it would implement 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of US products […]

“It is not by imposing tariffs that problems are resolved, but by talking and dialoguing,” President Claudia Sheinbaum said.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

The benefits from higher tariffs are speculative and unproven. The disruptions caused by tariffs and other trade restrictions are better documented and cannot be rationally denied. For the tariffs to be good policy, the Trump argument must therefore be sure that the benefits to the US exceed the cost of these disruptions. Otherwise, we have madness masquerading as policy.

The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.

On Jan. 18, Teck Resources announced that it expects its Trail smelter in Canada to produce 190,000 to 230,000 metric tons (mt) in 2025, down 10-25% from its 256,000 mt output in 2024. The company announced that the lower output was to maximize profitability and value amid the current tightness in zinc concentrate availability relative […]

The number of active drill rigs operating in the US and Canada increased this week, according to Baker Hughes

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

Prices for the seven steelmaking raw materials SMU tracks moved in differing directions from December to January, according to our latest analysis.

Mexican steel trade association Canacero said US steel exports represent “a threat to the Mexican steel industry.” Canacero also backed retaliatory measures if President Trump enacts 25% tariffs on Mexico by Feb. 1.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Trump made a clarification in a speech on Monday. Previously, he had declared the word “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. No longer.

Raw steel mill production held relatively steady last week, according to recent figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Less-than-fair-value investigations The US Commerce Department has agreed to postpone preliminary decisions in the corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) antidumping duty (AD) investigations. Commerce said in a Federal Register filing that it will now issue initial AD margin determinations by April 3. The deadline had previously been Feb. 12. The extension comes after domestic petitioners requested earlier […]

President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.

The volume of crude steel produced around the world declined 2% month over month (m/m) in December, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel). This is the second-consecutive monthly decline in production, following November’s 3% m/m drop.

The number of active oil and gas rigs drilling in the US continued to decline last week, according to Baker Hughes, remaining at a multi-year low. Meanwhile, Canadian drilling activity marched to the beat of a different drum, rising to a near-two-year high this week.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices saw a slight decline this week, slipping to levels last observed in early November

We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.

With just 10 days to go and nearing the final countdown, we have nearly 550 registered (and counting) so far for the 36th annual Tampa Steel Conference. Join us and hundreds of industry executives at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street from Sunday, Feb. 2, through Tuesday, Feb. 4. Take a break from the snow […]

Steel mill lead times were mixed across the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

The majority of steel buyers we canvassed this week continue to report that mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.  

Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.

Weekly raw steel mill production levels have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range across the last four months, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).