Is it me, or has the world become much more complicated recently? The NBA has suspended games indefinitely. The NCAA “March Madness” basketball tournament will be played in empty stadiums. Princess Cruises just announced they are cancelling cruises for the next 60 days. Europeans will not be allowed to fly to the United States for […]
The world is changing in nanoseconds before our eyes. Did anyone think the whole country of Italy would be restricted/quarantined a few weeks back? Yesterday, Saudi Arabia decided to go to war with Russia over the price of oil, and voila the price drops 30 percent in one day. The U.S. has hardly begun testing […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has moved up and down within a small, three-point range since the beginning of the year. Both Current and Future Sentiment registered a very slight uptick in the past few weeks and remain in optimistic territory well above the average of +47 to +51 in 2019. […]
Average mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel saw little change this past week. In fact, according to Steel Market Update’s surveys of the market, lead times have moved up or down by just a day or two, depending on the product, since the beginning of the year. Lead times for steel delivery […]
Price negotiations have tightened up noticeably as the mills seek to collect the $40 price increase they announced last week. Significantly more of the service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are holding the line on prices, especially for hot rolled and galvanized. In the hot […]
Last week’s price hike by the mills did little to change the outlook of most steel buyers. The majority (52 percent) of those responding to Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week still believe prices will remain the same, despite the latest $40 increase announced by the mills on Feb. 27. Another […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As I write today, the politics of trade are becoming clearer. I’ve often been asked to predict where things are going and how politics will affect the markets. Here goes. This election year, trade is more controversial than […]
We get all kinds of reactions to articles we publish. However, I was a bit surprised when one of our readers sent a note regarding our coverage of IHS Markit’s forecast of the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy. The note said, “Article on coronavirus was despicable. Let’s just start a panic.” Usually, […]
Earlier this week the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled against an appeal by the American Institute for International Steel challenging the constitutionality of the Section 232 tariffs. The court affirmed a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade, which upheld the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported steel. “While disappointed, we […]
Over the past two days Tim Triplett and I have been participating in the FMA Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas. The mood of the steel buyers I met with was moderately negative when it came to the ability of the steel mills to collect the price increases announced. One very large service center buyer […]
U.S. Steel continues to make interesting moves having now purchased the balance of the ownership in USS/Posco (UPI), 49.9 percent of Big River Steel with an option to purchase the balance, the $1 billion+ capital investment in the endless casting, rolling and cogeneration at Mon Valley Works and the $750 billion investment in Gary Works. […]
The American Institute for International Steel suffered another setback in its constitutional challenge of the Trump administration’s use of Section 232 tariffs to restrict steel and aluminum imports on the basis of national security. In a ruling on Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals rejected the claim by AIIS that the “non-delegation doctrine” makes it […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As a participant of long standing in the saga of international trade cases, I can say that this week was particularly interesting. First, the U.S. International Trade Commission did something unusual—last Tuesday, it made a final negative determination […]
John Packard is traveling… The mills announced another $40 increase in flat rolled prices this week in the hopes of reversing the recent downturn in steel prices. Instead of an increase, ArcelorMittal released minimum base prices of $620 for hot rolled and $820 for cold rolled and coated. Steel Market Update puts the current benchmark […]
Steel Market Update raised its Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral yesterday from Lower in anticipation of a price hike believed imminent from the mills. As expected, Nucor and U.S. Steel both announced increases today of $40 per net ton on all new spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel, effective […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission rejected antidumping and countervailing duties for fabricated structural steel from Canada, China and Mexico. The USITC found that the U.S. industry is not materially injured or threatened by imports of the products from the three countries after a Commerce investigation determined that China and Mexico were subsidizing the products and […]
Steel Market Update is revising our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled to Neutral from Lower. Sometimes you need a bit of a prod in order to see things clearly. We’ve had many conversations and reviews of the spot pricing data and came to the conclusion the timing of our move to Lower was incorrect. […]
On Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, one of the most important people in the development of my career in the steel industry and in my personal life passed away—Earl Goode. Earl the Pearl. I met Earl Goode for the first time 38 years ago in Marietta, Ga. It was a beautiful spring day in May 1982. […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends in December and January translated to a jump in the present situation in February. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we summarize 36 data streams that describe […]
We have adjusted our plate price momentum indicator from neutral to lower. Prices have been dropping over the past couple of weeks, and steel buyers are very negative on the markets right now (see some of the comments in an article above). I have to tell you I am really struggling with all of the […]
Based on the results from the flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis Steel Market Update conducted this past week, along with new steel price discussions SMU had with steel buyers late last week, we have decided to move our flat rolled (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume) price Momentum Indicators to Lower […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has remained relatively steady at a fairly optimistic level since the beginning of the year. But both Current and Future Sentiment have registered a very slight decline in the past few weeks. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered +56 this week, down from +63 at this time […]
Earlier today I moved our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. I explained my reasoning in an article in tonight’s issue. What happens should one of the steel mills announce a price increase within the next couple of weeks? With scrap poised to move higher, and lead times being decent at most of the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
Price negotiations with the mills have continued to loosen up as it’s rapidly becoming a buyer’s market. The vast majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are open to price negotiations on nearly all products to win the orders. In the hot rolled segment, […]
Writen by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update On Tuesday I received a question about the SMU Price Momentum Indicator, which is currently pointing toward Neutral pricing over the next 30 days. Yesterday (Wednesday) I received the following note from one of our readers after reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update: […]
It is rare that market direction is clear and uncontested. There have been a few times during my 42-year steel career when it was obvious prices were going to be higher tomorrow than they are today. It was during one of those times in history that I began writing a note to my steel buying […]
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 48.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers scaled back their flat rolled steel inventories at the end of January to 52.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, down from 62.9 in December, according to the SMU Service Center Inventories Report. This […]
Economists are fond of saying, “when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.” Where goes the world’s largest economy, smaller economies follow. Likewise, China, the world’s second largest economy, has come down with a particularly nasty bug that is threatening the health of global commerce. By now most are familiar […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: First, I want to recap the World Trade Organization crisis. The Trump administration has put a big obstacle in the way of WTO dispute settlement by refusing to permit new members of the “supreme court” of the WTO […]