A new regulation from the U.S. Department of Commerce allows currency manipulation by foreign governments to be considered a subsidy subject to countervailing duties. “This Currency Rule is an important step in ensuring that unfair trade practices are properly remedied,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “While successive administrations have balked at countervailing foreign currency […]
John Packard is traveling… Steel Market Update changed its Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral today. Not that steel prices couldn’t start inching upward once again in the coming weeks. It’s just that the direction is unclear and we need to wait and watch for the next trend to reveal itself. Lead times aren’t […]
The question I am getting right now is, “Where is price momentum headed?” Good question. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher prices over the next 30 days. However, we are not blind, and we have seen prices stall here at the beginning of the year. The way I am looking at […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Friday’s vote in the Senate to end the impeachment trial of President Trump without calling witnesses or receiving additional evidence seals the fate of the impeachment effort. The Senate will hear closing arguments and debate the issues Monday […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends that occurred in December continued into January. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data SMU has reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for […]
It’s Super Bowl Sunday! I will try to keep my comments short so we can all enjoy the game and worry about the steel markets in the morning. On Thursday and Friday of this past week I was in Ponte Vedra, Fla., as I was speaking to the Steel Manufacturers Association. The SMA are the […]
The recent rise in flat rolled mill spot prices have, in Steel Market Update’s opinion based on our survey analysis, been supported by a rise in service center spot prices to their end customers. However, the analysis of last week’s flat rolled and plate steel market trends survey indicates that support for higher prices has […]
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement was signed into law by President Trump on Wednesday. The signing clears the way for Canada to begin the ratification process that is likely to be concluded in March. The president called the agreement the “largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved.” “Everybody said this was a deal that could […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The presidential proclamation announcing new tariffs on “derivative” steel and aluminum articles was published in the Jan. 29 Federal Register (85 Fed. Reg. 5281). There are two Annexes that detail the products covered by the new tariffs: 1. “Aluminum […]
John Packard is traveling… The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak in China a global public health emergency earlier today. Six patients in the United States have been confirmed as infected by the potentially deadly virus…so far. Makes those seasonal sniffles you’re feeling even more disconcerting, doesn’t it? And what does it mean for […]
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that tariffs on imports of autos and parts are still on the table, refuting claims that the deadline has passed to impose such measures under Section 232. After Commerce delivered its report on the national security implications of imports of foreign autos to the administration, the president had 180 days […]
The Department of Commerce announced the affirmative final determinations in the antidumping duty and countervailing duty investigations of imports of fabricated structural steel from Canada (AD only), China and Mexico, and a negative final determination in the CVD investigation of FSS from Canada. Canada and Mexico have been assigned antidumping rates of 6.7 percent and […]
Tap, tap, tap… the sound of fingers drumming on a stack of blank purchase orders. Today I spoke with a group of key steel buyers and many of them are sitting and waiting. They are waiting because they have no tons to place, they are waiting because service center resale prices have not caught up […]
Steel buyers sentiment continued to improve through mid-January with Steel Market Update’s Current Sentiment Index registering +63, its highest reading since November 2018. Sentiment has been on the rise since October when it hit a low of +26, its most pessimistic reading since June 2013. (Historical low was in March 2009 when it hit -85.) […]
The benchmark price for hot rolled steel dipped by about $20 last week to an average price of $590 per ton, according to Steel Market Update data. Despite the small decline, most of the steel buyers responding to SMU’s latest market trends questionnaire believe prices still have upward momentum. Let’s look at the data for […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Friday, President Trump issued another proclamation on steel and aluminum. This time, the proclamation imposes tariffs on selected “derivative” products made from steel and aluminum. I was reminded of the movie “The Monster that Devoured Cleveland,” which […]
On Thursday I provided some of the feedback I was getting from those involved in both the sales and purchasing of flat rolled steel into the North American markets. The comments continued to flow in and here are a couple more that I found interesting: The general manager of a service center provided these insights […]
Lead times for hot rolled and cold rolled steel have flattened out, seeing little change in the past month, as measured by Steel Market Update. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mill. Lead times in general are about a […]
Negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers on new spot orders appear to have loosened slightly on hot rolled and cold rolled, but not to levels we saw in late 3rd quarter 2019. In the hot rolled segment, the majority of buyers (58 percent) said the mills are now more willing to negotiate prices on HR, […]
U.S. manufacturers have requested a total of 93,933 exclusions from steel tariffs and 13,249 exclusions from aluminum tariffs since the Trump administration imposed Section 232 in 2018. To get an exemption, an applicant must make the case that the metal they require is not available domestically in a sufficient quality or quantity. While Commerce has […]
I have been spending time looking at market momentum, lead times (real, not from our survey), who is buying and who is not (and why), and what the market should be concentrating on over the next couple of months (not just today). I am going to start with comments I got from a couple of […]
As we worked through pricing data this week, it was evident that much of the spot buying has occurred over the past couple of months. In our HARDI steel conference call this morning, those on the call who reported their inventory levels told the group they were either carrying inventories that were higher than normal […]
Looking back on 2019, it’s difficult to assess the success of Trump’s tariffs. A case for their effectiveness can be made either way. Judging by one measure, imports, it certainly appears the tariffs did their job. The American Iron and Steel Institute estimates that total steel imports declined by approximately 17.9 percent in 2019 to […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Challenges to the Section 232 steel tariffs are intensifying lately. The cases raise issues going to the heart of the Section 232 import restrictions. Here is a summary of the court cases to watch: AIIS—challenging the constitutionality of […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of December: Flat Rolled = 62.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate Steels = 60.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat rolled steel inventories increased 5.7 percent month on month while shipments fell 10.1 percent, according to adjusted […]
On Monday, we will begin our mid-January flat rolled and plate steel market trends questionnaire, and by the end of the week we will publish our analysis. Our Premium level members will be able to review our analysis, which will be presented in a PowerPoint presentation on Friday. Those who participate in this week’s questionnaire […]
The Senate voted its approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in a sweeping 89-10 bipartisan vote on Thursday. The trade agreement now goes to President Trump for signature. The Canadian parliament is expected to follow suit, allowing the USMCA to be implemented later this year. The final agreement adds language addressing the internet, digital services and […]
In a concession to the Chinese as part of the phase one trade agreement signed Wednesday by President Trump and China’s Vice Premier Liu He, the U.S. will cut Section 301 duties on $120 billion in Chinese goods in half, from 15 percent to 7.5 percent, effective Feb. 14. China has agreed to increase its […]
The other day I mentioned I am open to suggestions regarding subjects to be discussed or possible speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. One of the suggestions I got was that we consider having a steel buyer’s panel. I like the idea and it has already been incorporated into the agenda. I have […]
The Alliance for American Manufacturing is more than a little skeptical that the China Phase One trade agreement will have value for American workers, calling it “completely inadequate” in a letter to President Trump. “The agreement does not level the playing field for American workers in the U.S. or global market,” wrote AAM President Scott […]