SMU’s latest prices are out, and hot-rolled coil is down by $55 per ton while galvanized prices are down a comparatively modest $25 per ton. That’s been the trend for a while now – that galvanized prices have been “stickier” than hot-rolled coil prices on the way down. I wrote last week in Final Thoughts […]
I was reading your Final Thoughts and appreciated most of your comments, but I have some major issues with the inaccuracy of this paragraph. “Accounting tricks like inventory write-downs can help narrow the gap between a service center’s cost for steel and what a customer is willing to pay for it. But some losses are inevitable, […]
Selling secondary steel isn’t what it used to be in a market niche that seems to be getting smaller. The secondary market has always been about relationships and matching customers’ needs to the nonprime material that becomes available. And in the current environment, there’s even more wheeling and dealing, sources told me this week. “It’s a […]
The bubble is bursting. Not just any bubble. We’re talking the bubble that is ridiculously wide spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and base prices for cold rolled and coated products. Case in point: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,480 per ton, and our cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are at $1,880 per ton – […]
Flat-rolled steel prices continue to fall, but the market participants I spoke to today were taking the news in stride. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,480 per ton ($74 per cwt), down $55 per ton from $1,535 per ton a week ago and down $475 per ton from a 2021 high – […]
The big question entering 2022 is how fast, and how far, steel prices will decline. As Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners said during our Community Chat this week, “the trajectory for 2022 will depend on the pace of destocking, the new capacity ramping up and demand.” Steel Market Update’s latest survey data offers some […]
Where will hot-rolled coil prices be at the end of the first quarter? That’s what we asked respondents to SMU’s latest survey. And the short answer is that they’ll be lower – but there is little consensus on just how much lower. We asked this: “Hot-rolled coil prices averaged $1,600 per ton at the end […]
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Tonight’s issue will be the final one for this year. We will pick up publishing our newsletters again on Tuesday, Jan. 4. The first thing I want to do tonight is to thank every one of our members for their support over this past year. In light of the […]
Welcome back to those who took an extra day or two off after the New Year. This is my first article of the year as Michael and Tim continue to absorb more of my workload. For those of you who did not view or listen in on the SMU Community Chat we hosted yesterday with […]
First the takeaway: Don’t overthink it on the way down. Prices are falling, like it or not. The good thing, demand is still good – so don’t let falling prices ruin your holidays. Now, let’s overthink it a little. We’ve seen some chunky declines in recent weeks: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell $70 per ton […]
Just as steel mill lead times are leading indicators of steel prices, steel industry lead times may prove to be leading indicators of price trends for other commodities. As my colleague Michael Cowden reported Wednesday during SMU’s Community Chat with Tom Derry of the Institute for Supply Management, mill lead times on spot orders of […]
We are quickly coming up to the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays. I hope everyone has been able to complete whatever shopping you need to do, sent out your cards and notes to your family and friends, and have ample snacks to get you through New Year’s Eve gatherings, football games, board or card games, […]
Steel prices fell hard again this week. While the absolute numbers – down $60 per ton ($3 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil – might appear shocking at first glance, one could make the case that we’re being conservative. The development shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those who lived through past ups and downs. […]
Inflation and COVID have something in common. Both are invisible to the naked eye yet will color the economic picture in 2022. And both may make their presence known next year with painful consequences. Turns out Steel Market Update readers are more fearful of the fiscal bug than the physical one. Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this […]
Flat-rolled steel inventories continue to rise at service centers, and steel buyers are not flocking to do their normal end-of-year deals with steel mills. Steel Market Update has not yet produced our final Service Center Inventories and Shipment report. But we have published our “Flash” report, which we provide to our data providers after collecting five […]
Steel prices continued to slide this week with the benchmark hot rolled number down another $40 per ton to an average of $1,730 per ton. That’s a decline so far of $225 per ton, or 11.5%, from the peak of $1,955 per ton in early September. In our questionnaire this week, SMU asked buyers where […]
I’m concerned we’ve all gotten a little too complacent with the idea that the price correction underway will continue to be gradual and that the new floor for hot rolled coil, whatever it is, will be four digits instead of the sub-$400-500 per ton floors that have characterized past downcycles. I’m not saying we’re headed […]
(Editor’s note: This is a corrected version of Final Thoughts. The original misstated a hot rolled peak of $1,995 per ton, not $1,955.) In our questionnaire this week, we asked steel buyers: Do you sense that the market is changing, and in what ways? Not surprisingly, many referenced shortening mill lead times and declining steel prices. […]
Sometimes it is the little things that provide hints as to the direction steel prices will take. During our Steel 101 workshops, I use the example of when you hear from that steel salesman on what seems like a daily basis – that’s when you know a market is about to turn (or has turned). […]
First, please note that due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the Steel Market Update newsletter will not be published on Thursday (which is Thanksgiving Day) and Sunday, Nov. 28. We will return to our normal publication schedule on Tuesday, Nov. 30. We want to wish everyone in the United States a happy, healthy Thanksgiving with family and […]
Spot prices might be wobbling. But mill balance sheets are as strong as they’ve ever been – and the cash will continue to pour in as 2022 contracts reset at substantially higher numbers. Here are two opposing trends I’m keeping an eye on: (1) whether mills will use their cash hoards to expand outside of steel […]
With 2022 right around the corner, it’s time to reflect back on an unusual and eventful year for the steel industry. Following is Steel Market Update’s Top 10 News Events of 2021: #10 – Economy Rebounds from COVID: No one could have predicted when the virus crippled commerce in the spring of 2020 that the […]
Some of our key market indicators are pointing toward higher inventories at service centers and an “expectation” of lower prices out of the domestic steel mills. There are many questions yet to be answered as to what the “new normal” will look like when it comes to flat rolled steel prices. We have not seen […]
Earnings season is (mostly) done and dusted, so I’d like to turn your attention to another season: M&A announcement season. Bankers like to get deals done before Christmas. And I think there is a decent chance that any deals in the pipeline now are announced in the next month or so. Also, while spot prices […]
Steel Market Update’s price range for plate products raised a few eyebrows this week. Allow me to point out a few facts about SMU pricing data. SMU provides a weekly range as reference points for you to review. The reference points come from steel buyers and from steel mills. However, we place the most emphasis on […]
Steel buyers are “confused” as are some traders as to what deals are being offered into the hot rolled market right now. Steel Market Update has been advised by a couple of large HRC buyers of offers below $1,600 per ton ($80.00/cwt), while at the same time we have spoken to buyers who continue to […]
The House has finally passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill after months of wrangling not only among Republicans and Democrats but also among factions within the Democratic party. “American steel built this country, and the industry is now ready to get to work on rebuilding this country. Repairing and modernizing our national transportation system is essential […]
Mill executives have been front and center over the past couple weeks during their earnings calls and the annual gathering of AISI and SMA members in Washington. Below is a sampling of some of their more notable remarks: • Just because the U.S. and EU managed to negotiate a quota to replace the controversial Section […]
It goes without saying, the steel industry is in a dynamic, volatile market and the only thing that is certain is the volatility will continue as we move into calendar year 2022. It is not just price we need to watch over the coming months. There are many moving pieces to this puzzle. The agreement […]
We’re all on the same price roller coaster, and that’s true whether we’re talking steel, plastic or wood. But we’re not all on the same car – and so your impression of the market might be vastly different if you’re in the front car instead of the back one. That’s the impression I got while speaking […]