The Q3 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on August 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 71 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
Lightweighting vehicles with advanced high strength steel was the topic of conversation August 3 at the Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars, in Traverse City, Mich. “Steel is the clear winner in the material competition as a result of its superior value,” said panelist Dr. Jody Hall, Vice President-Automotive Market, Steel Market Development Institute […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their July report on August 3rd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May a further 0.7 points in June then declined by 0.8 points in July to 52.7 with […]
Global manufacturing was relatively flat in July. Increases in the Eurozone, North America and Japan could not offset contractions in Greece and Asia. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.0, unchanged from June and continuing its weakest reading in two years. Overall manufacturing output remained in the positive, above 50, range for the thirty-second […]
Flat rolled steel prices, and the momentum associated with steel price movement, have been stuck for quite some time as you can see by our SMU Price Momentum at the top of the table below. As a result, our benchmark hot rolled price average is $3 per ton higher than what we reported at the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) produces two series of articles focused on the buying and selling of flat rolled steel. Many of the articles can be found on our website under: Steel Buyers Basics or The Truth About Selling Steel. The following article is part of our Steel Buyers Basics series and is written by Mario […]
The Chicago Business Barometer pulled out of contraction in July with a gain of 5.3 points to register 54.7, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity. Production rose by 12 points to 61.8 accompanied by a strong gain in new orders. Both production and new orders expanded at the fastest pace since January. Employment levels, order […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 31, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 874 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 2 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs up 5 to 664 rigs, gas rigs down 7 to 209 rigs, and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
SMU previously published this article with incorrect graphics, the corrected ones are below. Our apologies for the mistake. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. In the big picture, the change (delta) in GDP is equal to the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative after a 9 week positive streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price as […]
The USW bargaining committee from Allegheny Technologies Inc. declined to bring the company’s latest contract proposal to a vote. The contract presented to the union on July 24 “shows some measurable improvements on some issues but falls far short of a fair or acceptable offer on key issues including healthcare, retirement security, and scheduling.” The […]
The United Steel Workers received an outline of a contract proposal from US Steel Corp. and found it riddled with concessions that the USW says would “erode decades of contractural improvements and benefits.” Health benefits seem to be a consistent theme in labor negotiations this year. US Steel is seeking to increase the minimum annual […]
New orders for durable goods in June increased by 3.4 percent month on month to $235.337 billion. This exceeded analysts’ expectations but the strongest component was an increase in civil aircraft orders. Orders for motor vehicles and parts retained their strength. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined by 0.2 percent. The 3MMA has been […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, according to the Conference Board with a decline from June’s 99.8 to a 10-month low of 90.9. In addition there was a downward revision to June’s result. It was a steep slide in the expectations subcomponent that pulled the composite value lower. The official news release from […]
Texas manufacturing has been in a slump for several months but is beginning to show signs of improvement. Manufacturing activity in Texas declined slightly in July according to The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Most of the indexes in the survey were in negative numbers but slowly creeping […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its manufacturing survey for the Fifth District on Tuesday showing moderate expansion in July. Shipments, new orders, and order backlogs all increased during the month. The composite index rose to 13 from 7 in June and 3 in May. The employment indices decreased to 1 while the wages […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,320,000 and the states reported 4,093,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in at Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
On Sunday we produced an article that was perhaps confusing to some of our readers. The article entitled: “Possible Strike Does Not Worry Buyers & Sellers of Steel” had an error in the graphic produced. Our survey results has 76 percent of those responding saying they are Not concerned about the possibility of a strike […]
At this point everyone wants to know if demand is growing and are inventories at a point where buyers will need to go into the market and begin buying again. The combination of growing demand and inventories that need to be replenished will be what drives flat rolled steel prices higher. Steel Market Update looks […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 24, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 876 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 19 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs up 21 to 659 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 216 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to be modestly optimistic although less so than what the index was reporting one year ago. The trend for the proprietary index has been to move sideways in what might be considered a not too hot, not too cold marketplace. SMU looks at how buyers and […]
Domestic mill lead times are one of the keys followed by Steel Market Update as we evaluate steel prices and price momentum. A market where we see extending lead times tends to allow for the collection of higher steel prices throughout the industry (steel mills and distributors). When we see lead times collapsing we tend […]
Last week, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. A portion of that change was due to the domestic steel mills continuing to be willing to negotiate flat rolled steel pricing. In this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis, those responding to our questionnaire reported all but Galvalume as being […]
The Architecture Billings Index jumped to 55.7 in June from a reading of 51.9 in May for the highest score since 2007. All design categories showed improvement except for multi-family construction which has been in a slowing trend so far in 2015. The new projects inquiry index rose to 63.4, from 61.5 the previous month. […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of June 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 5.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 0.5 percent […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast that June steel service center shipments of flat rolled steel would total 2,430,000 tons. The actual number, according to MSCI data, came in at 2,339,000 tons or 91,000 tons fewer than our forecast. The daily shipment rate for June, which is more accurate than keeping tabs on total month […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive for the ninth consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak prior. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]