With the short lead times (referenced in another article in tonight’s issue) the mills have little choice but to negotiate pricing with their customers as every order counts. Each of the flat rolled products followed by Steel Market Update are being reported, almost unanimously, that the mills are working with their customers. The graphic below […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks the initial planning of nonresidential building projects, gained 5.8 percent in September to register 133.5. Planning for institutional building led the increase with a 12.0 percent jump from August. Dodge Data & Analytics reports institutional planning has been on an erratic upward trend as state and local budgets recover […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the eighth consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
I recently had dinner with the owner of a Midwest based flat rolled steel service center. During the course of the conversation the subject of steel sales and, specifically, the development of new sales leads came up. I am sure this is a topic that many service center managers reflect upon on an almost daily […]
Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
According to Baker Hughes data from October 2, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 809 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 29 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 26 to 614 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 195 rigs, and […]
We ended the month of September recognizing that not only have steel prices been falling but the Momentum behind pricing turned negative during the month. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now pointing toward Lower prices to be seen in the coming month or longer. Sentiment, another Key Market Indicator, has been dropping as you […]
The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is more commonly known, surprised economists by dropping 5.7 points to 48.7 in September The decline follows two months of expansion and the speed of descent is a cause for concern said MNI Indicators. The production index plummeted by double digits to its lowest level since […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the eighth consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slipping on a regular basis for a number of months. This has created a market where buyers expect lower prices each time they order steel, even if there is only a week or two between orders. This tends to keep order sizes modest and develops a feeding frenzy between […]
The Consumer Confidence Index improved for the second month in September, up from 101.3 in August to 103.0. The reading was the highest since January and exceeded Bloomberg’s median forecast of 96.8 and Reuter’s forecast of 96.1. Consumers in the September survey were more positive about current condition with 28 percent calling the present situation […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
Over the course of this past week Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our flat rolled steel market analysis. Part of that analysis was focused on the domestic steel mill lead times for new orders placed last week for future delivery. We follow lead times as they are one of the early key indicators as to […]
According to the respondents to our recent flat rolled steel questionnaire concluded this past week, U.S. and Canadian steel mills continue to entertain adjusting (or negotiating) prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The percentage of respondents who reported hot rolled pricing as negotiable dropped from 97 percent to 78 percent. Cold […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
According to Baker Hughes data from September 25, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 838 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 4 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 4 to 640 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 197 rigs, and […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts a flat rolled steel market analysis which is done in the form of a survey. The survey is done through Survey Monkey online and then evaluated by SMU. Once we have crunched the numbers they are put into spread sheets and then a good portion of the data […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been dropping lately and Steel Market Update (SMU) can no longer ignore the direction of market prices at this time. We are, therefore, adjusting our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral, meaning that our expectation is for prices to move lower over the next 30 days. There are a […]
Flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the current and future (three to six months into the future) market conditions. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index (Current) is being reported as +47, down 6 points over one month ago and well below the +64 […]
The Architecture Billings Index slipped below the neutral point in August indicating a decrease in construction design planning. The August ABI score registered 49.1, down from 54.7 in July. The new projects inquiry index dropped to 61.8, down from 63.7. The slip is “not a cause for concern” according to AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker: […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports that members are forecasting a slight downturn in business conditions in the next three months. The PMA Business Conditions report is a monthly economic indicator of manufacturing, sampling opinions of 127 U.S. and Canadian metalforming companies. Average daily shipping levels are expected to decrease slightly, said metalformers, while incoming orders […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the seventh consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
We finally got our Flat Rolled Steel Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit Inventory forecast model back on track. As we mentioned last month, SMU had been operating under a much more optimistic frame of mind and this past month we pulled back on our expectations and by doing so we came very close to nailing both […]
As readers are well aware, the Fed announcement on the 17th was a nonevent as far as interest rates are concerned. This morning as we examined the currency values of the sixteen steel trading nations that we track, it was evident that traders anticipated this lack of action around the 10th to the 13th and […]
According to Baker Hughes data from September 18, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 842 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 6 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 8 to 644 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 198 rigs, and […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the fifth consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]