The TAA legislation passed by the Senate and House last week contained a measure short-titled “American Trade Enforcement Effectiveness Act.” The act provides for improvements to antidumping and countervailing duty laws, including how material injury is defined. The Act is comprised of amendments are made to the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 USC 1677). SMU […]
A steel buyer is required to make buying decisions – often worth millions of dollars – on current market conditions and expectations of future market conditions. How does anyone do that well in an environment of uncertainty and constant change? One way to get an advantage is to be a “Learning Machine”. Here’s what Charlie […]
According to Baker Hughes data from June 26, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 859 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 2 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 3 to 628 rigs, gas rigs up 5 to 228 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs […]
Today (June 25, 2015), the House passed HR 1295 which includes extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, as well as the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and improved AD/CVD laws that will benefit the steel industry. The measure passed by a vote of 286-138. Today’s vote follows […]
The Department of Commerce said Wednesday that it will proceed on AD/CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea, and Taiwan. A petition to investigate the products was filed on June 3, 2015 by US Steel, Nucor, ArcelorMittal USA, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics, and California Steel Industries. The products covered […]
The Architecture Billings Index rose to 51.9 in May from 47.8 in April. The Index, which reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, showed an increase in demand for new schools, hospitals, cultural facilities and municipal buildings last month. The ABI, published monthly by the American Institute […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]
Before the ink had dried on last month’s service center flat rolled inventory “Apparent Excess/Deficit” report and forecast we knew our forecast was being a bit too optimistic. This was pointed out to us in an email from a large service center who has been following our Apparent Excess since the beginning. “I read with […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States was positive for the fifth consecutive week indicating that prices have been rising. This follows a 39 week negative streak (falling prices). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods orders fell 1.8 percent or $4.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $228.9 billion in May, according the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders have decreased in three of the last four months, including a 1.5 percent decrease in April, and continue to be below the 2010-to-date trendline since late in 2014. […]
The big picture is as follows: from the 2015 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission May 28, 2015 (heavily abridged by SMU). “At current levels of the real exchange rate, the U.S. dollar is assessed to be moderately overvalued. As a result, the current account deficit […]
Steel Market Update has been asked a number of times to define, or help our readers to understand, what is “injury” when it comes to the domestic steel industry. Last week we heard from trade attorney Larry Friedman at the Association of Steel Distributors Meeting in Chicago that injury was losing sales, the lowering of […]
Union workers at Hamilton and Lake Erie works have asked the Superior Court to order US Steel Canada to release the identity of potential bidders for the CCAA protected assets. The information on the 39 companies that have shown interest in buying all or part of USSC is crucial to the interests of workers said […]
Can Greece remain in the EU without a new bailout? The question has been hotly debated with many EU policymakers willing to kick financially struggling Greece out while others fear that it would set a precedent that might weaken the European Union. At issue is a €1.54 billion ($1.73 billion) bailout that Greece owes the […]
SMU Sentiment Index Jumps Since our last flat rolled steel market analysis and evaluation of how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both three to six months from now (Future) as well as in today’s economic environment (Current), we have had a second price increase and a dumping […]
Steel Market Update reported in the Tuesday issue of our newsletter that negotiations have started between the USW (United Steelworkers Union) and ArcelorMittal. The issue was raised at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner where SMU publisher, John Packard, spoke last night. We have been anticipating that the posturing by the union and AM, […]
There has been some confusion over the customs bill that was passed by the House last week. The bill, HR 644 – Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, was not part of the TAA/TPA package (HR 1314). Passage of the House bill will send it to committee where it will be reconciled with […]
Lead times moved out slightly on three of the four flat rolled products: hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized. The only product which essentially remained the same was Galvalume. Hot rolled lead times averaged 4 weeks, according to the results of this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). This is up from 3.66 weeks […]
As with lead times, our survey respondents are reporting steel mills as slowly regressing and moving away from negotiating flat rolled steel prices. Although we are seeing movement, the percentage of respondents reporting the mills as still willing to negotiate hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume continues to be more than 50 percent. Hot […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 per barrel in August and by January 23rd was down to $44.80. By June 15th, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) the price of WTI had recovered to […]
The steel industry has been preparing for a trade suit for well over a year. Those who buy steel, manufacturers, fabricators and steel service centers have had ample time to prepare for what many had been predicting as inevitable, a light flat rolled coated steel anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) suit. As we speak […]
Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia area improved in June, according to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all improved from their readings in May. The headline diffusion index for current activity increased to 15.2 in June from […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States was positive for the fourth consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.102 for May, down by 0.18 from April and down from the all-time high of 106.309 in November last year. The three month moving average, (3MMA) in May was 105.40, down by 0.23 from April. January […]
Metalforming companies are expecting little change in business conditions in the next three months according to the June 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Just 23 percent of members surveyed (down from 24 percent in May) think economic activity will improve in the next three months; 60 percent expect no change. New orders […]
A joint statement by eight steel trade associations calls for immediate action in addressing steel overcapacity and the increase in subsidized exports from China. The statement below has been issued by the following organizations: AISI, SMA, CSPA, SSINA, CPTI, Canacero, Alacero, Eurofer and the Turkish Steel Producers Assn and Brazilian Steel Institute. “There is a […]
The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) “fast track” was passed by the House in a 219-211 vote on Friday. The Trade Adjustment Act (TAA), however, suffered a crushing defeat in a 126 to 302 vote. TAA would extend a program providing assistance to workers who lose their jobs as a consequence of trade deals and add […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline index surprised economists by falling five points to -1.98 points in June. The consensus was for an increase of 6 points in the general business index, according to Bloomberg, and is the second negative reading in three months. The new orders index for New York manufacturers fell six points […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through May. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]