We hope the contract customers are paying attention to what is going on in the flat rolled steel spot markets. When the adjustment comes at the end of this quarter there will be some very shocked purchasing people. Spot flat rolled steel prices rose again this week by large double digits. Over the past two […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of March 2016 was 8,716,178 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. March apparent […]
March steel exports totaled 775,270 net tons (703,314 metric tons), down 0.5 percent over February and down 13.5 percent from March 2015. Total March figures are below both the thee month moving average (3MMA, average of January 2016 through March 2016 figures) and the twelve month moving average (12MMA, average of April 2015 through March […]
For the week ending May 7, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,748,000 net tons of raw steel, a 2.2 percent increase over the previous week and a 2.6 percent increase over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 74.7 percent, up […]
Rising stockpiles of iron ore in China have sent iron ore futures plummeting in the past week. A frenzy of speculation had pushed benchmark prices for ore to a 15 month high last month. Prices have fallen 22 percent since the peak of +$70 on April 21. This morning The Steel Index reported 62% Fe […]
On Friday, I (John Packard) was the speaker on a conference call hosted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst, Timna Tanners. This is something that I try to do a couple of times per year to help the financial community and investors in the metals and mining space to better understand the flat rolled […]
Scrap prices settled higher by $20 to $30 per gross ton delivered to the domestic steel mills, according to Steel Market Update (SMU) scrap sources. The rise in ferrous scrap prices has been one of the driving factors behind the flat rolled price increases announced by the domestic steel industry over the past few months. […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter from an executive associated with the trading industry: I enjoyed reading your article on whether ‘ 2016 will end up being another 2004 and 2008 and would like to add these observations: 1. In 2008 the economies all over the world were overheating ( not only in the […]
Licensed data for April was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on May 3rd. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of April were […]
AK Steel raised prices earlier today on all flat rolled steels by $60 per ton. The announcement is their 6th going back to early December 2015. Since December they have increased prices another $200 per ton as we have shown in the table below. Buyers and those in the financial community need to be aware […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how he saw trading over the past week: For those of you who don’t know, it’s Cinco De Mayo! So I say “Hay Caramba”. If you want to […]
Experienced steel people are beginning to look at what is happening now and comparing it against 2004 and 2008. Both of those years saw prices double (or more) as demand and supply were out of balance. A trading company executive sent SMU the following note: “Is it just me or is this feeling like 2004 […]
There have been many comments made in the press recently regarding the opinions of analysts and consultants as to how long the current flat rolled price environment will last.The Pittsburgh Post published an article by Len Boselovic entitled: “Heard off the Street: Analysts: steel price hike may not last.” This article, which quotes one of […]
Scrap negotiations are taking some time to complete as the steel mills and dealers haggle over what is an appropriate increase above what the mills paid during the month of April. Our sources are advising us that there have been a few transactions in the Midwest and in the Detroit markets. So far the Detroit […]
In an email to their customers earlier today, ArcelorMittal USA became the first mill to announce new base price minimums on flat rolled steel with the opening of their July order book. The new steel price minimums set by AM are as follows: Hot Rolled = $610 per ton ($30.50/cwt)Cold Rolled = $800 per ton […]
In case there is some confusion, flat rolled steel prices are moving higher and, with today’s announcement by ArcelorMittal it is only a matter of time before benchmark hot rolled breaches $600 per ton and cold rolled and coated breach $800 per ton (base plus extras). It has been a very difficult market to gauge […]
We received the following email from a large national service center chain: “I read with great interest your “tsunami” article on the different types of steel buyers, in the Sunday edition. Here’s another perspective I thought of after reading it: I hope that this year’s current market, which includes a high percentage of mill index […]
For the week ending April 30, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,711,000 net tons of raw steel, a 1.6 percent increase over the previous week and a 3.8 percent increase over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 73.2 percent, up […]
Double digit flat rolled steel price moves seem to be a weekly occurrence over the past few weeks. Steel mills are controlling their flat rolled steel order books and restricting spot tons. Those buyers who did not recognize things were changing back in the fall when Steel Market Update began pointing out the changes in […]
Cliffs Natural Resources first quarter earnings were stronger than expected by many analysts. The company posted net income of $117 million compared to a net loss of $762 million a year ago. Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs’ Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, “Cliffs’ first-quarter results clearly demonstrate how far we have come on our turnaround. […]
Steel buyers are beginning to brace themselves for what may well be another tumultuous month of allocations, closed order books and even higher steel prices. At this point it is a foregone conclusion with most buyers that there will be another increase. The question really is how much higher will prices go during the month […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
The American Institute for International Steel reports monthly on steel import levels. We thought our readers might enjoy looking at the data from the AIIS point of view. Here is the press release for imports in March: Falls Church, VA. April 28, 2016. Steel imports increased 12.8 percent in March and have now expanded by […]
The American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) recently reported final U.S. raw steel production estimates for the month of March 2016. The monthly estimates are different than the weekly estimates we report in our Tuesday issues; the AISI bases the monthly estimates on over 75 percent of the domestic mills reporting vs. only 50 percent […]
What makes indexing flat rolled steel prices so difficult right now is you have steel mills quoting lead times that may be in May, June or even July for the same product. A hot rolled order placed on SDI last week is actually being produced at the same time as one placed on AK Steel […]
For the week ending April 23, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,684,000 net tons of raw steel, a 0.5 percent decrease over the previous week but a 2.1 percent increase over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 72.0 percent, down […]
Steel Market Update received the following email from a large service center in the United States. This executive, who wished to remain anonymous, enjoyed the article we produced in Sunday evening’s edition of our newsletter entitled, “2016 To be a Year of Volatility?” This executive discussed the issue of supply and the possible reversal of […]
This may come as a surprise to some but, there are many who think 2016 may be one of those years where flat rolled steel price volatility, maybe even extreme volatility, could become the norm. We are now in the midst of a five month upswing in flat rolled steel prices which has taken benchmark […]
The steel indexes followed by Steel Market Update showed flat rolled steel spot prices continuing their climb higher as all products moved by double digits. Both Platts and SMU took hot rolled prices up by $15 per ton, although there is a $15 per ton spread between the two indexes. Based on the SMU index, […]