It took a couple of years, dozens of trade suits, a Section 301 investigation, Changes to the Country of Origin, the Section 232 tariffs and finally a pull-back in domestic pricing to dramatically reduce the amount of foreign steel tonnage coming into the U.S. market. This reduction will not be short-lived. It will continue for […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations made by […]
We saw weakness in a number of the products we index this week. We are not seeing a collapse of the market, and as we discuss in another article in tonight’s issue, there are regional and product differences. The various products are not working in concert right now. We moved our Price Momentum Indicators on […]
A surprising two out of three respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week said they are not concerned about the direction of steel prices, at least in the short term, though some question the staying-power of current demand. Steel Market Update asked: “Foreign steel imports are dropping and the domestic mills are […]
U.S. raw steel production for the week ending April 6 increased by 0.8 percent from the previous week to 1,928,000 net tons, while the mill capability utilization rate inched up by about a half percentage point to 82.8 percent. The week’s production represented a 7.9 percent increase from the same period last year, reported the […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released updated import license data on Tuesday evening, with new March license estimates up slightly to 2.76 million tons. These latest figures would be above the three-month moving average (3MMA, through final January data), but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA). When removing the semi-finished (mostly slabs) licenses from the […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley U.S. long product prices have come under downward pressure, driven primarily by persistently high inventory levels. This inventory build-up has been compounded by an increase in import levels in March relative to the prior month, and consistently wet weather in many regions of the U.S. has delayed any […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released license data for foreign steel coming into the United States. Based on the data received and reported through April 2, March imports are expected to come in slightly higher than February at 2.6-2.7 million net tons. When removing the semi-finished (mostly slabs) licenses from the data, the finished steel […]
January apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,902,993 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. This is the highest level seen since March 2018 when apparent supply was 9,935,479 tons. January apparent […]
By CRU China Analysts China released a slew of stimulus measures during the NPC and CPPCC meeting in March in order to avoid a material slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Further and more substantial cuts to VAT rates were one of those measures. This followed an earlier VAT reduction from 17 percent […]
Year over year, total rolled product imports in March were down by 11.2 percent, measured as a three-month moving average (3MMA). This early look at March’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below). Beginning in January 2018, we expanded this import analysis to include all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, […]
Raw materials prices have lacked direction in the last month. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through March of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes and tells us that iron ore and pig iron declined in […]
Editor’s note: The following comments on where ferrous scrap settled for April come from one of SMU’s sources: U.S. scrap market prices gave way to a lull in export demand, mill outages and a perceived increased flow of obsolescent scrap due to the onset of spring weather. It ignored the flooding, which has inhibited the flow […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel In the last month, the CME U.S. Midwest HR future front month price has declined over $40/ST. Latest indexes indicate spot […]
U.S. steel exports in January totaled 636,566 net tons (577,484 metric tons), up 22.6 percent from December, but down 23.4 percent from levels one year ago. Although up over the previous month, keep in mind that total exports for December 2018 were at a 16+ year low. The total January export figure is above the […]
Hot-Rolled Coil Price Volatility: Buckle Up As a Steel Market Update member company as well as those on a free trial, you are invited to join CRU and CME for a free steel webinar on hot rolled coil prices on Thursday, April 18. U.S. Midwest HR coil price volatility has increased markedly in recent months […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By Chris Houlden, CRU Research Manager, Steel CRU has a long-established and proud history of serving the market with its U.S. Midwest HR coil price or “The CRU” as it has become known. Independent market research, including that concluded very recently, has again established that The CRU is used in the determination of the vast […]
By Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore price volatility continued in the past week as Vale’s lower guidance and Rio Tinto’s damaged port caused supply fears across the market. On Tuesday, April 2, CRU has assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $88.70 /t, a $3.30 /t rise week-on-week. The supply side news has been […]
On Tuesday of this week, Steel Market Update published a hot rolled price range of $650-$720 per ton, with an average of $685 per ton. The lower end of our range dropped $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) while the upper end of our range remained the same. Our Price Momentum Indicator on hot rolled remained unchanged […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores In the U.S., plate prices rose $16 /s.ton after falling by $34 /s.ton last week. Prices here started to fall back from their high levels in February, though mills announced a $40 s/.ton price increase, which at best may only stabilize prices at this lower level unless seasonal demand […]
Ferrous scrap settled up $20 per ton in March, but demand is softening and supplies are building, leading to predictions of April scrap prices that move sideways or decrease by $5 to $10 per ton. Outages at five mills in late March and early April will dampen scrap demand, said CRU North America Analyst Ryan […]
Finished steel price momentum has been particularly difficult to gauge of late and what happens to ferrous scrap prices next month may be telling. Scrap for May appears to be under pressure. Despite relatively healthy U.S. steel demand and domestic mills cranking out flat rolled steel at nearly full capacity, scrap prices have seen declines […]
Ferrous scrap prices are poised to drop substantially in May, anywhere from $20 to $50 per gross ton, predict Steel Market Update sources, adding to the downward price momentum on finished steel. Scrap prices moved down or sideways in three of the first four months of the year. CRU North America steel analyst Ryan McKinley […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June are difficult to predict, report Steel Market Update sources, who disagree on the degree to which the lower tariffs on Turkish steel will affect demand for scrap exports from the U.S. Most expect scrap prices to settle sideways next month after declines for most of the year, but a small […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June have settled down another $30/GT, surprising a market that was expecting little or no decline this month and adding further pressure to already weak finished steel prices. Scrap prices have been on a downward trajectory since January. The drop in scrap prices this month was caused by low mill demand […]
Since hitting an eight-year low in December of just 1,893,568 tons, imports of steel into the United States have been up and down, according to Commerce Department data. Final January imports jumped to 3,478,865 net tons, up 83.7 percent over December—a nearly 1.6 million ton increase. Then in February, based on license data for the […]
Hot rolled is the weakest product and our HRC average priced dropped due to lower prices collected out of two minimills. We understand one mill is offering even lower numbers for large tonnage, but we did not include that in our numbers for this evening as we want to speak directly with the mill to […]