Global steel prices may have finally bottomed out, said Severstal CFO Alexey Kulichenko. Severstal sees a slow recovery in store for 2014 with steel prices similar to those in 2013. “We don’t really believe there is more room for going down, so we think on average maybe we have reached the bottom,” said Kulichenko said […]
Financial Markets When I last wrote I commented that it was likely we would head back up solidly into the 1775-1800 zone on S+P 500 before attempting any retracement. Well, today we closed 1790. We should meet some pretty good resistance here which we will likely test for a couple of weeks. With yearend approaching, […]
Iron Ore Resilient is the word best used to describe this market with Iron Ore still $136.6/MT on the index. A third ISM number out of China above 50, this time for October, has some traders quite buoyed by the growth potential there. Growth out of China is as clear as mud as always, but […]
Metalforming companies expect improved business activity for the next three months after expressing pessimism in October. The November 2013 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report showed an uptick in the number of survey respondents who anticipate improvement in business conditions as well as improvement in new orders. Average daily shipping levels were above levels […]
November 12, 2013, Falls Church, VA – The American Institute for International Steel announces the selection of Richard Chriss as its new Executive Director, replacing David Phelps, who is retiring. David served as the Institute’s Executive Director and later President for the past 17 years. Mr. Chriss will assume his new position on November 18, […]
Net job creation in October was 204,000; August and September were revised up by 45,000 and 15,000 respectively. In October 169,000 jobs were created in services and 35,000 in goods producing industries. The private sector added 212,000 jobs as government shed 8,000. Of the goods producing, 19,000 were in manufacturing and 11,000 in construction (Table […]
In the last issue of SMU, the Final Thoughts article had information from the financial community with a Bloomberg graphic pointing out the difference between U.S. benchmark hot rolled coil prices and those from the rest of the world. The premise being the $190 spread recognized by the financial community was unsustainable. The net result […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and […]
As expected a couple of mills have announced hot rolled coil price increases today, with more expected to follow in the coming days. These hikes have been anticipated by most in the physical market but appear to have caught a few in the paper market off guard as bids quickly entered the market at extremely […]
TSI Iron Ore: Market Remains Firm Iron ore prices have continued to be strong as Rebar futures have bounced off recent months lows last week and spot steel in China continues to go higher. Over the past couple of weeks iron ore prices have pushed up around $5/ton down the curve with Q1 trading around […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of 73 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey preamble was as follows. “The October 2013 […]
Latin American steel mill Ternium reported net sales of 2.14 billion on shipments of 2.3 million tons of steel and 930 thousand tons of iron ore. Steel shipments were up 4 percent from second quarter and 2 percent from third quarter 2012. Iron ore shipments were down 24 percent from second quarter but up 106 […]
Global manufacturing picked up in October with production, new orders and international trade volumes all improving. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 in October from 51.8 in September. Expansion was seen all regions of the PMI composite except France, India and Greece which were still in the negative growth range below a […]
ISM steel buyers reported shipping levels are higher than three months ago and about the same or higher compared to 12 months ago. Inventory decreased slightly in October with most (46.2 percent) saying they have tons on hand to cover 0-1 months; 38.5 percent said they have enough for 1-2 months. Tons on hand are […]
Review of Manufacturing. October 31st 2013 Each month the Steel Market Update publishes a table of what we believe to be the most significant indicators of the state of the steel market and current results in the long and flat rolled sectors. We will be discussing one section of this table in detail each month, […]
The increased uncertainty over future hot rolled coil pricing has elevated interest in HRC futures. Based on CME Group data there were 8,033 hot rolled futures contracts during the month of October for a total of 160,660 net tons. This represents a 51 percent increase over the 5,301 contracts (106,020 tons) during October 2012. During […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index indicated steady business conditions for New York manufacturers in October. The general business index fell 5 points to 1.5 but remained in growth status. The new orders index rose 5 points while shipping fell 3 points, suggesting modest increases for both indexes for the month. The prices paid index remained […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised economists with a PMI reading of 56.4 in October—the highest level in 2013. Expectations were for the index to fall to 55 this month but instead the PMI increased 0.2 percentage points from September’s reading of 56.2. The indexes for new orders, production, inventories and employment all indicated growth. Of […]
In my last ditty, I mentioned we were likely headed to the 1775-1800 area on the S&P 500. Well yesterday we reached 1775. However, the Fed statement from their October meeting yesterday had just enough language changes from the September meeting that some felt nervous and got out of some of their positions and the […]
Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) reported a net loss of 520 million pesos ($40.3 million) in the third quarter of 2013, as compared to a net loss of $26.6 million in third quarter 2012. Sales were 9.475 million pesos ($735.2 million) on shipment of 886,524 tonnes of steel product, down from sales of $751.1 million […]
The Chicago Business Barometer surged 10.2 points to 65.9 in October—it’s highest reading since March 2011 and its biggest monthly gain in 30 years. Double digit growth was seen in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. The October government shutdown seemed to have little effect on Chicago area businesses. New orders shot up to their […]
Consumer Confidence is a Strong Leading Indicator of Future Steel Demand As expected because of the shenanigans in Washington, consumer confidence declined strongly in October, particularly as regards consumer’s future expectations. The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence decreased to 71.2 from 80.2 in September. The three month moving average, (3MMA) fell from 81.0 […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September came in slightly above trend at $233.411 billion, (Fig 1). This monthly data is very spiky mainly due to erratic orders for civil aircraft. However it is one of the earliest indicators for US manufactured goods and though we are not involved in aviation the overall trend […]
TSI Iron Ore: Market Soften As Rebar Slides Iron ore prices have been fairly volatile over the past week as conflicting data and information coming out of China as moved the needle in opposite directions. The upshot to all of this intraday volatility is that prices remain fairly unchanged on a week-on-week basis. With rebar […]
The recent strength in the physical market has sent futures prices up over the past month. This week, however, prices have begun to soften as most market participants feel the market has reached a top. Talk of revived imports coming in as well as some domestic mills offering deals a bit below published prices has […]
Net job creation in September was 148,000 of which 122,000 was service providing and 22,000 goods producing. Of the service providing 22,000 was in government. Of the goods producing, 2,000 were in manufacturing and 20,000 in construction (Table 1). Expectations had been for a gain of 180,000. Digging into the September numbers reveals weak growth […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased yet again for September, reaching its second highest level in 2013, just behind February. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects reported on Wednesday that the […]
A decline in business activity is forecast for the next three months by metalforming companies participating in the October Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Survey participants also expect incoming orders to decline over the next three months. The forecast was similar to September’s predictions but PMA President William E. Gaskin indicated the pessimism […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United States […]