The housing industry continued to be a boost to the economy in July. Housing starts jumped 22.6 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,496,000 from the revised June rate of 1,220,000. Compared to a year ago, housing starts were up 23.4 percent. “Demand is being supported by low interest rates and […]
Flat Rolled = 55.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers pared down flat-rolled steel supply in July to 55.5 shipping days of supply, according to preliminary data, down from 62.5 in June’s adjusted data. Inventories represented 2.52 months of supply in July, down from 2.84 in […]
Seventy percent of the steel buyers polled by SMU last week said they believe prices are near the bottom of the current market. SMU pegs the current benchmark price for hot rolled at around $440 per ton, slightly lower than the consensus view of $460 per ton because SMU learned of some low-$400’s deals late […]
June heating and cooling equipment shipments totaled 2.28 million units, up 6.8 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the highest monthly shipment level in SMU’s 12+ year limited history, surpassing the previous monthly high in June 2018 at 2.27 […]
As I look at today’s hot rolled average of $440 per ton (-$10 from last week) I feel it’s my duty to provide some context to our number. SMU captured transactions placed late last week at, or slightly below, $400 per ton for spot hot rolled. Since Monday of this week we were capturing higher […]
Our friends at ITR Economics warn us to be wary of economic misreporting, especially when the media is so full of dramatic headlines about the state of the pandemic. It’s easy for reporters to misinterpret the data, which is confusing to nearly everyone. ITR continues to predict U.S. GDP will move into a recovery mode […]
The service center and manufacturer executives who read Steel Market Update have been telling us for some time that they believe steel prices are near the bottom and poised to turn around soon. Our latest check of the market, with flat rolled steel prices up anywhere from $15 to $25 per ton, suggests the market […]
Four days to go… This will be our 10th SMU Steel Summit Conference. Over those 10 years the SMU team (and now CRU team) has built the most successful steel conference outside of mainland China. This year’s conference will be either the second or third most attended event we have had since the beginning. I don’t think we […]
Industry sentiment has taken a pessimistic turn over the past four weeks as COVID-19 continues to outsmart government and health officials, who can’t seem to unite on a strategy that will stem the spread of the coronavirus. Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes had been improving since hitting bottom in early April, but dipped […]
With Congress at an impasse over the next round of federal stimulus spending, roughly two out of three steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update believe it’s time to dial it back and not overreact. The other one-third feel the government should double down on spending to support an economy still struggling with the effects […]
The Dodge Momentum Index posted its first gain in 2020, moving 3.4 percent higher to 124.7. The index has declined 18 percent since December 2019 due to business shutdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. April was a particularly difficult month for construction planning. “The pullback has largely come from institutional planning, rather than commercial plans,” […]
The construction industry reported 20,000 new jobs in July, but almost all were in new housing construction, says the Associated General Contractors of America. “It is gratifying that the construction industry continued to add jobs in July, but last month’s gains were entirely in residential building and specialty trades,” said AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson. […]
Last week we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends analyses. Some of the information gathered was shared in Thursday’s and again in tonight’s issue (see above). However, we share in our newsletter only a small fraction of the information that is being collected. Our data providers and Premium members can […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel from the mills were at their shortest in the week of April 30 as orders dried up due to the coronavirus. Since then lead times have extended by about half a week, but saw only minor fluctuations in June and July. Currently, lead times for hot […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel are stretching out as demand improves and the mills get busier. Lead times for hot rolled and plate steels have extended past four weeks, while lead times for cold rolled and coated are now longer than six weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer […]
Steel buyers maintain their strong position in price negotiations with steel makers as demand slowly recovers from the coronavirus. The vast majority of those responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week report that the mills are willing to compromise on price to win orders. Nearly all the hot rolled buyers (91 percent) said the […]
Negotiations between buyers and the mills appear to be tightening as steelmakers attempt to firm up prices in response to improving demand. Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week shows significantly more mills holding the line in price talks on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel orders compared to earlier in August. About […]
Auto sales are beginning to recover momentum after the pandemic-related shutdowns of the second quarter. The market hit bottom in April, but sales began picking up once mandatory shutdowns eased. Auto manufacturers have been successful in ramping up production and are working to increase inventory. Ward’s Intelligence and ALG Inc. estimate that the seasonally adjusted […]
Is that the sun rising, or a speeding train…? 17 Days to Go for Start of 2020 SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference. The number of executives from manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies, toll processors, banks, trucking companies, scrap companies, paint companies and suppliers to the industry is now in the mid-600’s heading toward 700 […]
Construction spending fell for the fourth straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.36 trillion in June, according to an analysis of data by the Associated General Contractors of America. Public construction dipped 0.7 percent in June led by a 2.7 percent decline in educational construction and a 1.7 percent drop in highway […]
In three months through June, total construction expenditures had negative growth for the first time since November 2011. SMU Comment: Data in this report is not adjusted for seasonality. We remove this effect by considering only year-over-year data. Total construction contracted by 0.6 percent in June as a result of a 2.6 percent contraction in […]
Construction is slowing but still has positive growth driven by state and local building and infrastructure expenditures. Privately funded work is contracting. In August, construction expenditures were at an all-time high. Steel Market Update analyzes the Construction Put In Place (CPIP) data to provide a detailed description of activity that accounts for about 45 percent […]
Steel Market Update is celebrating our 12th birthday. I started the SMU publication officially in August 2008. Prior to that I had been giving it away to my former customers and friends within the industry. I knew at the time that the industry needed a publication coming from an industry perspective as opposed to a journalism […]
As if a pandemic wasn’t enough, now I have to muddle through a tropical storm (it was a hurricane but lost some of its punch overnight on Saturday). Fortunately, Florida residents consider tropical storms as nothing more than a nuisance. I have my fingers crossed that we don’t pick up a hurricane until after our […]
Two out of three steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update believe the coronavirus has permanently changed the way they do business. Sixty-five percent of the respondents to SMU’s questionnaire last week expect less travel and more working from home to become common practice, among other changes. Following are some of their comments: “There will […]
Construction employment decreased in 225 out of 358 metro areas, or 62 percent, between June 2019 and last month despite widespread increases from May to June, according to an analysis of new government data by the Associated General Contractors of America. The AGC urged government officials to enact liability reform, boost infrastructure investments and extend […]
I have been buried with the project of resurrecting our premiere event over the last few months. Out of the ashes of the pandemic rises the new virtual SMU Steel Summit Conference. As with any endeavor Steel Market Update tackles, this task has had some unusual challenges. As the project has gathered steam, we have found that […]
Home prices grew at a little slower rate in May, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. The National Home Price NSA Index posted an annual gain of 4.5 percent in May, down slightly from 4.6 percent in April. Data from the Detroit metro is unavailable for March, April and May due to COVID-19 […]
Watch the market closely. I am hearing rumors that at least one EAF mill is trying to get flat rolled numbers up. Right now, most (not all) data providers were not supportive of higher numbers. I am hearing integrated mills are not booking a lot of spot business, and thus are able to get slightly […]
Industry sentiment had been trending positive since bottoming out in the first week of April—until this week. Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes slid back from levels earlier in the month on continued uncertainty over the coronavirus and its effects on the economy and steel demand. SMU asks steel buyers how they view their […]