Existing home sales in March rose 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million. Tight inventory and affordability have kept sales 1.2 percent below year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. “Robust gains last month in the Northeast and Midwest – a reversal from the weather-impacted declines seen in February […]
Low inventory continues to drive up home prices across the U.S. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller National Home Price NSA Index rose 6.3 percent in March, up from 6.1 percent in February. “Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012. Over that time, the price […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would remain steady at 109,565 tons per day in February to 109,594 tons per day in March. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 107,314 tons per day, a decrease over February. Our shipment forecast […]
Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. […]
Another hectic week in the flat rolled and plate steel markets. Buyers and sellers of steel are all waiting to see what calamity awaits when the clock ticks 12:01 AM on May 1. That is when the Section 232 country exclusions are set to expire, according to the deadline set by President Trump. What he […]
Is your company at risk due to the impact of the Section 232 tariffs? Industry executives responding to Steel Market Update’s April 16 flat rolled market trends questionnaire are almost evenly split on whether the Trump administration tariffs will help or hurt their businesses. Fifty-two percent say their business is not at risk, while 48 […]
According to manufacturing companies, as well as steel service centers, the steady trend for higher flat rolled steel spot prices out of the distributors is changing. For the past four months, at least 74 percent of distributors and their manufacturing customers have been reporting spot flat rolled prices as rising. The 46 percent of the […]
I was asked if plate price momentum was also at neutral as we had just adjusted our flat rolled price momentum indicator away from higher to the neutral designation. To be honest, we haven’t actually incorporated plate into having its own index and it probably needs one. Plate prices don’t always move in sync with […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers remain at optimistic levels, though buyers’ confidence appears to have seen some erosion as measured by the three-month moving averages in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index is designed to measure changes in buyers’ attitudes, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. […]
Based on responses to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends questionnaire, mill lead times remain extended, but appear to have stabilized a bit in the past month. Mill lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic mills to produce a new order taken this week, is one […]
Are steel mills willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders in the current market conditions? For the most part mills are holding firm, but there may be some initials signs of a loosening in price negotiations, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire. Every two weeks, in a proprietary […]
I try to make all of our customers feel as though they are a part of our organization and, indeed, you are. It is very important to me to get feedback from our readers, as well as from others associated with the steel industry. To get that feedback, I travel to conferences and various meetings, […]
Housing starts increased more than expected in March due to a rebound in multi-family construction. Housing starts grew 1.9 percent from February to March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319,000. Year-over-year, housing starts leapt 10.9 percent, reports the National Association of Home Builders. Single-family housing starts were weak in March at a rate […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through February 2018. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for February 2018 increased 1.4 percent, […]
For the ultimate prognosticators out there, individual tax returns were due today (April 17) by midnight. The IRS has had computer issues today and has extended the deadline to April 18 at midnight. The Metals Service Center Institute inventories and shipment article in tonight’s issue will be the last one Steel Market Update will produce. […]
On Monday, April 16 we will begin our mid-April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. Our goal is to be able to spot changes in pricing, demand, negotiations, sentiment and many other trends that ultimately affect steel prices in North America. If you receive an invitation to participate please answer the first question which will […]
As Steel Market Update analyzed the inventory data received from flat rolled steel distributors, we found the number of months of supply that steel service centers are carrying was lower at the end of March than what we reported at the end of February. With 96 percent of our data providers reporting, the number of […]
Much has been made of the downshift in automotive and its impact on steel demand, but “let me put you at ease about the market slowdown,” said auto analyst Bernard Swiecki with the Center for Automotive Research. Speaking at the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association annual meeting March 8 in Scottsdale, Ariz., Swiecki told the group the […]
Since the beginning of the New Year, manufacturing companies and steel service centers have been reporting service center spot pricing to their end customers as rising. Just a few weeks ago, 100 percent of the manufacturers responding to our mid-March flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire reported distributor prices as rising. Last week, Steel Market […]
Steel Market Update’s new analysis of sheet, plate, long and tubular product imports and their 18 subcategories is still a work in progress, but it offers a timely means to examine the effects of the Section 232 legislation on the market. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through February and […]
Our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference registrations are quickly approaching 300 executives. With 136 days still to go, we are confident we will set another record attendance. Over the past two days we have received registrations from the following companies (those with a * next to their name means there is more than one person […]
“Compared to one month ago, demand is declining, but to a more normal level,” commented one respondent to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week, expressing a common view. There has been a surge in demand in recent weeks due to the Section 232 tariff decision by President Trump. Many buyers have been buying […]
I’ve been asked my opinion as to which way steel prices will head from here. There seems to be a bit of a lull at the moment that one steel buyer attributed to the mills trying to stave off imports and not appear to be too greedy. Steel buyers are telling me that they will […]
The following report was originally published last week for our Premium level members. The SMU service center inventories months of supply index began in July 2017 and we continue to add flat rolled and plate steel distributors to our confidential data provider list. If you would like to be added to our data provider list […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, which forecasts nonresidential construction, climbed 6.1 percent in March, registering 155.0. The commercial component led March’s gain with a 9.6 percent increase—erasing February’s 5.1 percent decline. Activity in the institutional sector was milder, gaining 1.6 percent, following an 8.1 percent increase in February. Wrote Dodge Data & Analytics: “During the first […]
For those of you waiting for the PowerPoint presentation of our flat rolled steel market trends analysis, we should have it on the site either tomorrow afternoon (Monday) or on Tuesday. Brett has been on vacation and he is our master number cruncher. I want to thank Lewis Leibowitz for all of the help he […]
First, ferrous scrap prices are rising for delivery during the month of April. However, our sources are telling us that the increases are not at the $20-$30 per gross ton suggested a few days ago. The mills are playing hardball and the sense is that prices will drop in May, so dealers are taking what […]
Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers saw little change in the past two weeks as the market paused to see how the maneuvering on the trade front plays out. In general, buyers’ attitudes remain at optimistic levels but are below year-ago levels, which SMU finds concerning. We are finding a growing […]
Based on the latest SMU Flat Rolled and Plate Steel Market Trends Survey, mill lead times on flat rolled steel remain highly extended, close to the levels measured by Steel Market Update in mid-2016, as mills scramble to fill orders on strong demand. Mill lead times, which are the amount of time it takes for […]