Mexico, Canada, Australia … (Europe, Russia, Turkey?) … which will be the next countries to negotiate directly with President Trump, who appears to be less interested in building steel jobs than getting trade concessions (or personal acknowledgement) out of many of our allies. With President Trump, you need to review his Twitter account should you […]
Eight out of 10 respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week (just prior to President Trump’s announcement confirming the 25 percent tariff on steel imports) believe tariffs on foreign steel will weaken the steel and manufacturing base in the United States. Following are some reader comments, nearly all opposed to the Trump […]
Imports’ shares of the major steel product markets are all on the decline, reveals a new report on imports from Steel Market Update. The report examines the import share of sheet, plate, long and tubular products and 18 subcategories of these product groups. We think the introduction of this analysis is timely as a way […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through January 2018. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for January 2018 increased 7.7 percent […]
OK, the Section 232 announcement has been made. Canada and Mexico are in the clear (for the moment) and the president’s attention is now on North Korea and other issues not related to the economy. My advice, don’t panic (unless you haven’t bought any steel over the past few months, in which case you are […]
Steel inventories are increasing as the inventory-to-shipment ratio is decreasing—a very healthy trend for the supply chain. To efficiently manage inventory, companies generally want to keep the ratio low. A rise in the inventory-to-shipment ratio indicates that shipments are falling or the operation is keeping too much inventory on hand. Each month, the Census Bureau […]
President Trump’s controversial decision to impose a steep tariff on steel imports has clearly unsettled the market and taken a toll on the attitude of many steel buyers. Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers declined significantly in the last two weeks, according to the latest Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment […]
Mill lead times on flat rolled steel orders continue to extend as supplies tighten and buyers scramble to replenish inventories ahead of the next price increase. One of the key indicators tracked by Steel Market Update, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels they are seeing from their customers. About […]
With foreign steel offers largely on hold as the market awaits President Trump’s final decision on steel tariffs, domestic steel mills are in a strong bargaining position and are taking full advantage of it. Nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week say the mills are unwilling […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly forecast of nonresidential construction, increased just 0.5 percent in February. The marginal increase was due to an 8.2 percent rise in the institutional component that was offset by a 4.8 percent contraction in the commercial component. Dodge says that although the commercial component has declined for two months straight, […]
I am in Scottsdale, Ariz., attending the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) annual meeting. I was asked to speak on a panel with Nucor Executive Vice President for Flat Rolled Ladd Hall and Don McNeeley, President of Chicago Tube and Iron. The timing of the conference couldn’t have been better for the fabricators, toll processors […]
Steel Market Update forecast that flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would rise from 87,805 tons per day in December to 109,083 tons per day in January. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 105,109 tons per day. Our shipment forecast accuracy continues to be high, off […]
I’ve lived through all kinds of trade cases, Section 201’s, voluntary restraint agreements – you name it. The U.S. government is not good for the steel industry and is not good for consumers of steel products. Gary Cohn is leaving the White House, apparently a signal that the 25 percent steel tariffs are coming your […]
Oscar Night, so I will keep my comments short and sweet…maybe. I was told by one of our readers over the weekend that it would cost U.S. Steel $100 million to re-start Granite City. They wanted to know if that was correct? I did some checking with a number of analysts and was told that […]
Automotive sales declined for all three Detroit automakers in February. Ford and General Motors reported that year-over-year sales declined 6.9 percent and FCA U.S. was down 1.0 percent. In contrast, Toyota sales jumped 4.5 percent year-over-year, and Mazda and Volkswagen made gains of 12.7 and 6.0 percent, respectively. BMW-Mini also saw sales increase in February […]
Key market indicators, and the trends they reveal, are the best they have ever been in Steel Market Update’s analysis. Data released in February shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only six negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. Trends improved with 32 of the indicators heading […]
As much as the mills are gloating about President Trump’s decision to lay a 25 percent tariff on foreign steel, remember one thing – not one of them asked for it. When it was handed to them, they took it. They did not fight to protect those products that they don’t like to make (or […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been on the rise since October. Judging by steel demand, that trend is likely to continue. About 41 percent of all the respondents to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire reported improving demand for their products. Another 53 percent said demand remained the same. Only 6 percent felt […]
Home prices jumped 6.3 percent in December, according to the latest data from the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. The 10-city composite increase was 6.0 percent, unchanged from November. The 20-city composite posted a 6.3 percent year-over-year gain, compared to 6.4 percent the previous month. On a month-over-month basis, home […]
Sales of new single-family homes dropped in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, according to the latest Department of Commerce data. January sales were 7.8 percent below December and 1 percent below the January 2017 rate. During the last three months, the average sales rate was 644,000. The median sales price was […]
The next few months are going to be a wild ride (in my opinion). There appears to be a cascading “Gray Swan” event in process prompted by Section 232 and expectations associated with 232, which now are for Trump to announce a 24 percent tariff on all steel products and let the chips fall where […]
In 2017, the domestic steel market contracted by 0.5 percent, but domestic shipments were up while imports were down. Table 1 shows 11 years of history of total steel supply to the U.S. market broken down into shipments from domestic mills and imports, excluding semi-finished. The hot rolled steel market totaled 106.4 million tons in […]
President Trump has made no official announcement about his plans for Section 232, leaving the steel market to speculate on last week’s Commerce Department recommendations. The majority of respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire are guessing he will come up with his own solution to combat unfair imports. The Commerce recommendations […]
Mill lead times on flat rolled steel orders continue to stretch as buyers replenish inventories in the first quarter. One of the key indicators tracked by Steel Market Update, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels they are seeing from their customers. About 9 percent of respondents to this week’s […]
Steel prices have been on the rise for the past four months, so it’s no surprise that steel buyers are reporting mills less willing to negotiate. More than 60 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire say mills are holding firm in price negotiations. About 10 percent say they still find […]
Diana and I will be traveling on Monday and Tuesday on business and will not be available in our offices and will have limited use of our cell phones. If you have an issue, please contact Brett Linton at 706-216-2140 or send emails to info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. I will be canvassing the market on Monday afternoon and […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers showed a slight dip this month, due in part to the uncertainty over possible government trade action against imports. Viewed as a three-month moving average, however, industry optimism remains near record highs, according to the latest Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index measures […]
The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted its highest January score since 2007. Considered a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI registered 54.7 last month, up from 52.8 in December. Scores above 50 indicate growth in billings. “Healthy conditions continue across all sectors and regions except the Northeast, where firm […]
Existing home sales fell for the second consecutive month in January, dropping 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Compared to a year ago sales are down 4.8 percent, the steepest decline since 5.5 percent in August 2014. Inventory rose 4.1 percent […]
January service center intake rose 12 percent month over month but was flat compared to the seasonal norms and was down 2.7 percent compared to January 2017 intake. Daily shipments in January were 31.1 percent higher than in December and were 4.3 percent higher than January 2017. According to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of […]