No one was surprised when major U.S. steel mills announced a $30 per ton price hike on flat rolled and plate this week. The price hikes were widely expected. But a majority (58 percent) of respondents to SMU’s latest flat roll market trends questionnaire will be surprised if the higher prices stick. Some predict the […]
Despite the ongoing delay in Washington, six of 10 respondents to SMU’s latest flat roll market trends questionnaire believe the Trump administration will eventually put new restrictions on foreign steel imports based on Section 232 national security concerns. Even more, 74 percent, believe the slowdown in the Section 232 decision is opening the door to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast provided last month showed that the deficit in inventories being held by flat rolled distributors would shrink. We have worked with the MSCI carbon flat rolled shipment and inventory data and our model indicates the deficit did indeed shrink and is very close to […]
Tomorrow is the full eclipse of the sun in many areas of the country. Where I live in southern Florida, the sun will be 81 percent covered. About four hours drive north of here will be in the high 90 percent range. If you are lucky enough to be in an area where a total […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is releasing our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index for mid-August. The Index measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment, as well as three to six months into the future. Overall, our Indexes remains optimistic. However, […]
Flat rolled lead times, the amount of time it takes for the steel mills to produce an order if placed today, have flattened out and are essentially unchanged over the past few months, according to data collected by Steel Market Update from manufacturers and steel service centers earlier this week. On Monday, Steel Market Update […]
Steel buyers and sellers reported mills slightly more open to steel price discussions, based on responses this week from Steel Market Update’s flat rolled market trends questionnaire, possibly reflecting the seasonal slowdown in sales activity. What makes the results collected on mills willingness to negotiate pricing especially interesting is the domestic steel mills began announcing […]
June’s rebound in housing starts was short-lived, according to data from the Department of Commerce on Wednesday. Housing starts dipped in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,155,000, 4.8 percent lower than the June estimate and 5.6 percent below the July 2016 rate. Construction of single-family homes was relatively steady, slipping just 0.5 […]
The “woodie” automobile, popular in the 1940s and ’50s, may be on its way back, but in a seriously different mode. Japanese researchers are developing the latest challenge to automotive steel, a super-strength, lightweight product that uses wood as a raw material. Cellulose nanofiber, made from wood pulp, is mixed into plastics forming a product […]
I asked trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz recently to look into the requests for reviews of the antidumping and countervailing duties on CORE (corrosion resistant steel) and cold rolled. The U.S. Department of Commerce published notices on July 3, 2017, asking any of the countries/companies affected if they wished to have a one-year review of the […]
As was mentioned earlier in tonight’s newsletter, our 2017 SMU Steel Summit Conference will be a sell-out this year and the question really is what day this week will we close registrations? I am both surprised and humbled by the response we have gotten to this year’s event. Our team works very hard to put […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through June 2017. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for June 2017 increased 0.3 percent […]
I was advised late on Friday afternoon that we should expect a Nucor price increase early next week. With scrap prices firming $10 to $30 per ton our expectation is for the increase to be $25-$30 per ton. Then the question will be will the industry support another increase after tepid (at best) support for […]
Even though the Trump administration has postponed a decision on Section 232, the possibility of trade action that will further restrict steel imports is still influencing the market, according to comments from service centers, manufacturers and trading companies gathered in last week’s Steel Market Update Flat Roll Market Trends questionnaire. Two-thirds of all steel buyers […]
Rumor vs. Fact – I was speaking with Tim Triplett (our Executive Editor who recently joined SMU after a 19 year stint at Metal Center News) and we were talking about the “rumor” of a potential price hike by Nucor. Tim raised the question, as members of the media, is it appropriate for us to […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are fairly optimistic about their chances for success in the current market, though the various metrics Steel Market Update uses to gauge future demand are sending mixed signals. One likely cause is the uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s now-delayed Section 232 investigation. According to the latest SMU […]
We have been incredibly busy this week as we work toward getting all of the pieces of the SMU Steel Summit Conference puzzle to fit together as seamlessly as possible. There are a number of firsts for this conference, but I am going to wait until the conference starts for many of them to be […]
The lack of a committed market direction by service centers, coupled with strong imports and inventories that SMU believes are balanced to slightly bloated at the distributors, has prompted us to move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. In an interesting development, twice as many manufacturing companies reported that flat rolled steel […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July was released on Friday with a gain in jobs that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The May result was revised down by 7,000 and June was revised up by 9,000 positions. Using a three-month moving average (3MMA), the July result was 195,000 jobs, which was pulled down […]
I adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. I did this after spending time analyzing the results from last week’s flat rolled steel market trends survey, looking at what was being recorded by some of the other indexes, noting that Congress and the president are on holiday for a few weeks and there […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
The following article is from responses left to a question we had in our early August flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. We inquired about how buyers and sellers of steel felt regarding steel prices with Section 232 somewhat sidelined for awhile. Results were mixed. Nearly half of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to represent buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel as being optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. As a single data point collected by Steel Market Update as part of […]
Flat rolled lead times have seen little change in the past month. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets based on responses to a comprehensive questionnaire. When looking at lead times, the analysis is restricted to responses from manufacturers and distributors, who accounted for 84 […]
Over the course of this week, Steel Market Update has been canvassing active participants in the flat rolled steel markets as we try to capture any changes in market trends. The more than 100 respondents we had this week provided us a snapshot on how steel mills are handling price negotiations. As a group, respondents […]
Total construction expenditures are expanding slowly, but the contraction of infrastructure expenditures is accelerating, according to June data for construction put in place (CPIP) released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Aug. 1. Total construction still shows positive growth, but slowed to 1.3 percent year/year in the latest three months of data. Privately funded […]
It has been another busy week here at Steel Market Update. We are hearing from steel buyers that Nucor is considering raising flat rolled prices by $25 per ton within the next few working days. The increase would follow an increase in ferrous scrap prices for August delivery. We have also heard that at least […]
Automotive sales dropped sharply for most manufacturers in July. Edmunds and WardsAuto estimate total sales for the month to be 1.42 million units. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for July is expected to be 16.9 million, according to WardsAuto. “July is historically a strong month, but with disappointing sales and inventories still building, something needs […]
I apologize in advance if it seems like I have an overly narrow focus (conference, conference, conference – Steel 101 workshop). Our conference is but a few weeks away and there are literally hundreds of things that need to get done (and get done correctly) before we even travel to Atlanta. I have been in […]