My final thoughts are going to be short this evening. The word that keep going through my head today as I spoke with buyers and sellers of steel was “worry.” The number of people who worry about what is going to happen next seems to be growing by leap years on a daily basis. I […]
Economists participating last week in the CMD Webinar: Is Construction Gaining or Waning were generally optimistic about the economy and forecast for construction growth. Although some sectors of construction peaked last year, growth is continuing in almost all areas, although at a slower pace. During the webinar, chief economists Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose 0.6 percent in April to 116.5 from a revised March reading of 115.8. Planning for commercial construction increased 0.8 percent and institutional planning rose 0.4 percent. Institutional planning, although volatile on a month-to-month basis, continues to recover and is now seven percent above year ago levels. The pace for commercial […]
A quick note to those who will be attending the Chicago Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner on Thursday of this week. I will be there as well. If you want to get a moment to chat send me an email or text. My email is John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. While communicating with a service center executive late on […]
SMU canvasses buyers and sellers of steel to see how they feel about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing (Current) market conditions as well as what they perceive those conditions will be three to six months into the future (Future). All of our participants are involved in the flat rolled steel […]
Domestic mill lead times: the amount of time it takes to receive flat rolled steel on an order placed this week, continue to be extended and are averaging at least one week longer than one year ago according to those participating in this week’s SMU flat rolled market trends analysis. Earlier this week we began […]
Steel Market Update asks our flat rolled steel market trends analysis participants to comment on the status of negotiations between their company and their steel mill suppliers. We want to know how stringent are the mills being when it comes to collecting the announced or original quoted steel price and are they able to collect […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 18th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
I had a long conversation with a service center this afternoon regarding the steepness of the rise in flat rolled prices out of the domestic mills. This buyer was frustrated with the pace of the increases and the unnecessary (in his opinion) tension the increases have caused between their company and their customers. During the […]
The Associated General Contractors of America, on May 1, released their March analysis of construction spending. Construction spending in March 2016 was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.138 trillion. SMU looked back at past March analyses and found an upward trend in spending for the month. In March 2014 construction spending totaled $943 […]
U.S. automakers reported strong sales in April. WardsAuto expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate to reach 17.6 million units, surpassing last month’s rate of 16.6 million and 2015’s rate of 16.7 million. Volume sales for the month are expected to reach 1.51 million units exceeding the previous record for the month set in 2005. Sales […]
The move by ArcelorMittal USA today was anticipated and the price levels noted in their increase email to their customers are in line with expectations. I expect the rest of the mills will follow along within $10-$20 per ton of the levels suggested by AMUSA. Some of the mills may wait for scrap prices to […]
Last year in conjunction with Steel Success Strategies I had a lunch with a number of steel buyers, executives and two derivatives traders (one being Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC). We all gave our opinions as to where we thought benchmark hot rolled coil would be by early June 2016 when we will return […]
Last week Steel Market Update reported our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index as being at record highs. Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are very optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful not only in the current market but three to six months out into the future as well. When looking at Sentiment from […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 17th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index indicated home prices continued to rise over the past 12 months but at a slower growth rate. The 20-City Composite gain was 5.4 percent year over year in February, down from 5.7 percent in January. The composite gained just 0.7 percent on month over month base after seasonal […]
I am going to start my Final Thoughts today with a question. I am working on an article as part of my The Truth About Selling Steel series and I want to learn more from buyers and sellers of steel as to what the term “Value-Added” means? We hear this term used a lot in […]
This evening I was talking with a large steel buyer about the fundamentals of the steel market and how long can prices continue to go higher. I told him that I had spoken with another large steel buyer earlier today who told me they could not understand how the fundamentals have changed in China. They […]
According to our latest flat rolled steel market survey which was conducted last week, steel mill lead times have continued to move out on every single one of the flat rolled products. The extended mill lead times are one of the primary reasons behind the increases in flat rolled steel prices, pressure on deliveries, allocations […]
The graphic used in this article visually tells the story. Flat rolled steel prices have become much less negotiable according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey this past week. Lead times are extended and steel mills are using the words “allocation” and “controlled order entry” to their advantage. The net result […]
My focus over the next few days is going to be on demand and how demand will impact the flat rolled steel markets over the next couple of months. I began the process by looking at the Steel Dynamics earnings conference call transcript for hints as to how SDI sees the market progressing through 2nd […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to feel very good about their company’s prospects both in the existing market as well as looking out three to six months into the future. Steel Market Update (SMU) is of the opinion buyer optimism is connected to rising steel prices around the world which improves the […]
Steel buyers need to be aware that there has been a jump in iron ore spot pricing in China over the past 48 hours. The Steel Index (TSI) reported 62% Fe fines into the port of Tianjin, China at $64.3/dmt (dry metric ton) up 4 percent from the previous day. This same item is up […]
Both auto and light truck sales in the US dropped abruptly in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units, down from 17.5 million in February, Figure 1. Auto sales fell by 11 percent, while light truck sales rose 3 percent. Year-to-date sales are 3 percent higher than for the first […]
Housing starts plummeted in March, according to Commerce Department data. Housing starts fell 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000, well below economist projections. Housing permit authorizations also declined in March by 7.7 percent, indicating a cooling of momentum during the housing construction market’s busiest season. Single family housing starts were at […]
We should see the pace of the price increases slow down as most mills are getting the announced minimum price levels from their spot buyers ($25.00-$26.00/cwt HR, $35.00/cwt cold rolled and coated). The market needs a couple of weeks to absorb the increases and push them down to the end users and resale spot customers. […]
Every month Steel Market Update plugs in the MSCI shipment and inventory data for flat rolled steel and we run it through our model to determine if service centers are carrying too much inventory and by how much. We then forecast where we believe shipments and inventories will go over the next few months. From […]
Below is the latest release issued by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through November 2015. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for February 2016 decreased 8.5 percent to […]
This week’s newsletters may seem a little “muted” compared to the past, this is due to my right hand man – Brett Linton – being on vacation. Brett is the one responsible for keeping track of all of the data points and graphics in both the newsletter and website. He is also responsible for crunching […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 15th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]