Hectic day here at SMU as our server was down (actually the entire server farm) for a couple of hours right at our peak publishing time. You may have noticed our website either moving very slow or not being able to access the site at all between 4 PM ET and 6 PM. Everything is […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. We now have two […]
In summary, the March CPIP data released on May 1st, yielded mixed results. Private expenditures recorded overall growth with the exception of manufacturing, transportation and religious structures. However, State & Local and Infrastructure spending continued to contract. Data in this report is not seasonally adjusted or corrected for inflation. At SMU we analyze the CPIP […]
Despite incentives, U.S. automotive sales dipped in April with almost all brands showing declines year-ove- year. Of the Big Three Detroit manufacturers, Ford had the worst results, down 7.2 percent to 214,695 for the month. FCA USA posted sales of 177,441, down 6.6 percent and GM had sales of 244,406, down 5.8 percent. Slower sales […]
The domestic steel mills did not cancel scrap orders for April delivery that had not yet arrived. This is a sign that the steel mills believe prices will be sideways to slightly higher for May delivery than what they negotiated for April. All is quiet as the steel mills and their scrap suppliers jockey for […]
For a number of weeks now (?) Steel Market Update has had our Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward Neutral as opposed to Higher or Lower. Over the past couple of weeks flat rolled prices have been coming off their highs and yet SMU continues to keep our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral. What gives? Why […]
I have received a number of comments on the LinkedIn posts that I have put out there over the weekend. I shared our “Black Swan” article on my personal LinkedIn account as well as our Steel Market Update LinkedIn group account. I also received a question about the “average margin for a service center” that […]
The industry is abuzz with all kinds of speculation as to how the Section 232 investigation will impact traders and steel buyers. Another Section 232 was announced and should have been signed by President Trump today covering aluminum. I was texting with one of the steel mills this morning about their access to aluminum for […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative this week after being in positive territory for the previous eight weeks. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
Both manufacturing companies and service centers are reporting distributor spot prices as being in a state of transition. The percentage of manufacturing companies reporting service centers as raising spot flat rolled steel prices has dropped from 50 percent at the beginning of April to 19 percent. At the same time 19 percent of the manufacturing […]
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reached a 32 month high in February. The Index reported a 5.8 percent annual increase in prices, up from 5.6 percent in January. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.9 percent, compared to 5.7 percent the previous month. Seattle, Portland and Dallas reported the highest […]
New home sales reached an 8-month high as the spring season brought out new buyers. Sales of new single-family homes rose 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 in March. The rate is 15.6 percent above the March 2016 estimate, according to the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban […]
Steel Market Update has been working on trying to get a better understanding of the pipe and tube business. We had a conversation with Barry Zekelman, Chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, the largest privately held pipe and tube manufacturer in the country. Our initial conversation was about foreign steel imports and how they were […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. Over the course of the week we invited 670 individuals representing approximately 650 companies to participate in our survey. The breakout of the participants was a little different than what we have been seeing over the course of a number […]
US vehicle sales averaged 17.3 million units, SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) per month in the first quarter, down from 18.1 million in Q4 2016. March sales were much lower than expected with an annualized rate of 16.63 million units, down 0.3 percent year on year. Light-truck sales fell from 11 million annualized units in […]
Since Thursday, when President Donald Trump signed his executive order calling for an analysis of the steel industry from a “national security” perspective, I have been swamped with emails and phone calls questioning what is going on and what do I think about the chances of something happening that will impact the amount of foreign […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues at very optimistic levels for those involved in the flat rolled steel industry in the United States and Canada. At the same time, our index is no longer making new high’s either as a single data point or on our three-month moving average (3MMA). SMU […]
Over the course of the last four days Steel Market Update (SMU) has been conducting our mid-April flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We finished earlier this afternoon and we are providing the results of some of our findings to our readers this evening. Lead times, which is the length of time it takes to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel associated with manufacturing companies and service centers are reporting the steel mills as being more willing to negotiate flat rolled steel spot prices. Based on the responses from those taking our survey, 59 percent reported the domestic steel mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled prices, 76 percent […]
The following service center inventories data is based on the assumption that the MSCI data as presented is accurate on carbon flat rolled. From the MSCI data we apply a proprietary formula/model from which we can determine if flat rolled distributors are in an over-inventoried (excess) or under-inventories (deficit) situation. The importance of understanding the […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the eighth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Steel Market Update has been proactively writing about our expectations for Executive Orders and their impact on foreign steel imports. It is clear that the steel lobby has the ear of the president and this has to be quite frustrating to the same companies he is trying to convince to come back to the United […]
Below is the latest data release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through February 2017. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for February 2017 increased 5.5 […]
Housing starts fell 6.8 percent in March, dropping further than expected. The rate was the biggest decline in three years but still 9.2 percent higher than the rate in March 2016. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of […]
We managed to squeeze in an extra day off for our crew due to the Easter Holiday. So, if you were looking for a newsletter on Sunday evening – sorry, we skipped a day. But, we are making up for it today with an issue that if you printed it you could use as a […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the seventh consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
First, a reminder that Friday is Good Friday and Sunday is Easter Sunday. Our office will be open for part of Good Friday since I have been traveling extensively and I have a need to catch up. Sunday is a holiday and we will not publish an issue on Sunday evening. The next time we […]
We had a number of companies share foreign import numbers with us as we traveled about the market reaching out to buyers regarding their domestic purchases and the offers coming out of the domestic steel mills. On cold rolled we heard Russia offers delivered to Houston at $33.25/cwt, Turkey at $35.35/cwt and Vietnam $35.15/cwt. I […]
On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 0.9 percent in March to register 144.4. The March reading is the sixth consecutive monthly increase and has been driven mostly by new projects in institutional building. The index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential buildings in planning and leads construction spending for buildings by a […]