While some automakers think the chip shortage may be mostly behind them, others continue to struggle with supply-chain and labor issues – the latter stemming from a surge in COVID cases linked to the Omicron variant. Here is where things stand with three of the largest automakers in North America. Chrysler Stellantis – the European parent […]
U.S. construction spending increased in November amid strong gains in single-family homebuilding, but outlays on public projects were weak. Construction spending rose 0.4% after a similar advance in October, the Commerce Department reported. The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending shows spending on private construction projects rose 0.6% in November. Outlays on residential construction were […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, saw its highest readings ever in September 2021. Not coincidentally, so did steel prices. In the four months since then, steel prices have softened by some 20%. Industry sentiment has also softened, but to a lesser extent – and it remains well above year-ago levels. SMU surveys buyers […]
Lead times on spot orders from domestic steel mills continue to decline, with no sign yet of how soon they might level out. Declining lead times are a leading indicator of declining steel prices. The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, while cold rolled and galvanized are […]
After a year in which steel mills could basically name their price, 2022 is shaping up to be a buyer’s market – at least for the foreseeable future. Nearly all (96%) of the service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s survey this week reported that the mills are willing to negotiate prices […]
Where will hot-rolled coil prices be at the end of the first quarter? That’s what we asked respondents to SMU’s latest survey. And the short answer is that they’ll be lower – but there is little consensus on just how much lower. We asked this: “Hot-rolled coil prices averaged $1,600 per ton at the end […]
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Tonight’s issue will be the final one for this year. We will pick up publishing our newsletters again on Tuesday, Jan. 4. The first thing I want to do tonight is to thank every one of our members for their support over this past year. In light of the […]
Welcome back to those who took an extra day or two off after the New Year. This is my first article of the year as Michael and Tim continue to absorb more of my workload. For those of you who did not view or listen in on the SMU Community Chat we hosted yesterday with […]
There’s surprisingly little consensus among market participants about where steel prices will be next year, even though 2022 is just around the corner. That’s a big departure from the last 12 months, when respondents to Steel Market Update surveys were roughly in agreement on where prices would be in the future – or at the very least […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has not reacted much to declining steel prices. Perhaps because prices remain well above historical averages even after big declines – more than 18% when it comes to hot-rolled coil – over the past three months. Indeed, 2021 was a record year for many companies, leaving […]
In line with the declining steel prices, lead times for spot orders from the mills continue to shorten with the average for hot rolled now below five weeks and cold rolled and galvanized now below eight weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. Lead times for all products […]
Existing-home sales expanded for the third straight month in November, reported the National Association of Realtors. Of the four major U.S. regions, only the Northeast didn’t register a month-on-month gain, holding flat versus October. The Midwest ticked up 0.7%, the South grew by 2.9%, while the West rose by 2.3% in November when compared to […]
As the upward slope of the green bars in the charts below clearly illustrate, the bargaining position in steel price negotiations has been steadily shifting in favor of steel buyers for the past three months. Since September 2020, it had been a seller’s market, with steel in short supply. Until lately, the mills have had […]
First the takeaway: Don’t overthink it on the way down. Prices are falling, like it or not. The good thing, demand is still good – so don’t let falling prices ruin your holidays. Now, let’s overthink it a little. We’ve seen some chunky declines in recent weeks: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell $70 per ton […]
Just as steel mill lead times are leading indicators of steel prices, steel industry lead times may prove to be leading indicators of price trends for other commodities. As my colleague Michael Cowden reported Wednesday during SMU’s Community Chat with Tom Derry of the Institute for Supply Management, mill lead times on spot orders of […]
Automakers are beginning to report improvements in semiconductor and supply-chain-related downtime, with General Motors Co. the latest to report production gains due to better inflows of the microchips. At one point, the Detroit, Mich.-based GM had nearly idled every North American assembly plant in September. Widespread outages or production cuts were seen from mid-summer and well […]
Housing starts accelerated in November due to strong demand for new construction of single-family and multifamily housing, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Overall housing starts increased 11.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.68 million units. The November reading – indicating […]
We are quickly coming up to the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays. I hope everyone has been able to complete whatever shopping you need to do, sent out your cards and notes to your family and friends, and have ample snacks to get you through New Year’s Eve gatherings, football games, board or card games, […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators, as analyzed by Steel Market Update, continued their shift to a neutral position over the past month with positive indicators eroding further, slipping for the sixth successive month. What began as a typical summer slowdown, worsened by a surge in Delta cases and a less-than-ideal job market, has been compounded by […]
Despite steady improvements across supply chains, the North American auto industry hasn’t seen the last of the semiconductor and related parts shortages. Although most automakers are steadily improving and, in some cases, back to regular production, some downtime continues to be reported. Toyota alone is slashing another 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles from its January production […]
The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) together with two of its chapters, the Dallas-based TEXO chapter and the statewide AGC of Texas chapter, filed suit earlier this week in federal court to block the Biden administration’s effort to impose a COVID-19 vaccine mandate on federal contractors and subcontractors. According to the suit, the groups […]
Flat Rolled = 57.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 60.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories rose again in November, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of November, service centers carried 57.1 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, compared to 56.7 shipping days […]
Steel prices fell hard again this week. While the absolute numbers – down $60 per ton ($3 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil – might appear shocking at first glance, one could make the case that we’re being conservative. The development shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those who lived through past ups and downs. […]
U.S. heating and cooling equipment shipments slipped 1.9% in October to 2.05 million units, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). October levels are down 1.5% from those seen one year prior. Recall that 2020 monthly shipment levels were somewhat erratic; shipments in the second quarter were significantly impacted by the […]
Inflation and COVID have something in common. Both are invisible to the naked eye yet will color the economic picture in 2022. And both may make their presence known next year with painful consequences. Turns out Steel Market Update readers are more fearful of the fiscal bug than the physical one. Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this […]
With 2022 just around the corner, steel buyers are looking back at one of the most profitable years in their history – thanks to all-time-high steel prices seen in 2021. That explains some of the staying power of lofty readings in Steel Market Update’s Sentiment Index. SMU surveys buyers every two weeks and asks how they view […]
Flat-rolled steel inventories continue to rise at service centers, and steel buyers are not flocking to do their normal end-of-year deals with steel mills. Steel Market Update has not yet produced our final Service Center Inventories and Shipment report. But we have published our “Flash” report, which we provide to our data providers after collecting five […]
Lead times for steel sheet and plate continued to decline over the past two weeks, shortening by an average of more than a week. The move correlates with a sharp downtrend in steel prices. Steel Market Update’s latest check of the market shows the average lead time for hot rolled orders nearing five weeks. Cold rolled […]
The pendulum has passed bottom and finally begun to swing the other way in price negotiations. Steel mills no longer hold a dominant bargaining position over spot buyers. That shift is consistent with the shortening lead times and declining prices reported by Steel Market Update. SMU asks buyers every two weeks whether mills are willing […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. North American auto assemblies pushed higher in November, expanding for the second straight month as they recover from the lowest monthly total year-to-date in September. November’s production total was up 4.1% sequentially, […]