My “final thoughts” provide me an opportunity to give my opinions on a wide range of topics. Some are directly steel related and some are not. The question we are all asking ourselves today is what will a Biden administration mean for business? Here are some thoughts I picked up from my reading over the […]
U.S. auto sales closed October at a strong pace with year-over-year growth supporting the industry’s robust recovery. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for October was near 16.4 million, said Cox Automotive, and marked the second consecutive month of annual increase. Year-to-date sales are down less than 10 percent compared to 2019. Said Brian Finkelmeyer, Cox […]
Growing up I was a bit of a history nerd and my original intention was to be a political science major when I entered Hamline University where I went to college. Over time I morphed into a bit of a political nerd, so elections are exciting times for me. They may not be for many […]
Residential construction spending continues to lead nonresidential by a wide gap, said the Associated General Contractors of America. Total construction spending in September increased 0.3 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.41 trillion. Private and public nonresidential spending fell 1.6 percent from August and 4.4 percent from a year ago. In […]
Construction is slowing, but still has positive growth driven by state and local building and infrastructure expenditures. Privately funded work is contracting. In September, construction expenditures reached an all-time high and on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis were only slightly lower than April 2020. Steel Market Update analyzes the Commerce Department’s Construction Put in […]
For those of us who live in the United States, today should be one where we recognize we have expressed our opinions about politics and politicians with our vote. We recognize the strength of our democracy is rooted in the belief that we are all Americans no matter our political ilk. To believe otherwise only […]
Industry sentiment has rebounded to levels exceeding those seen prior to the pandemic, and steel executives polled by Steel Market Update this week have a fairly optimistic outlook on their future as well despite concerns about a second wave of COVID-19. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their company’s chances for […]
When I look at the results of our flat rolled survey, sometimes I have to scratch my head. In the survey we just completed last week, we asked at what point hot rolled prices would peak. Sixty-two percent of our respondents believe prices will peak at $700 or lower. To them I ask, what is […]
Lead times for spot orders of steel continue to extend with hot rolled delivery now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around eight and a half weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely […]
Signaling that the mills remain busy, lead times for delivery of spot orders continue to lengthen with hot rolled now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around nine weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are […]
Mills continue to control negotiations over hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel orders as they seek to collect higher prices in a market characterized by extended lead times and tight supplies. About 86 percent of the hot rolled steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said the mills are […]
Mills continue to hold the upper hand in negotiations over hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel orders as they work to collect higher prices in a tight market with extended lead times. Buyers report the mills will only negotiate on big tonnages to be delivered in 2021. About 86 percent of the steel buyers […]
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread damage to the nonresidential construction industry, says a new survey from the Associated General Contractors of America. More firms are reporting project delays or cancellations and construction employment levels are falling across U.S. metro areas. “The survey results make it clear that the months-long pandemic is undermining demand for […]
Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Election Day – Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020. If you have a mail-in ballot, it is now too late to put in the mail. You will need to personally drop the ballot off at a collection box. If you can vote early, I would highly recommend it (I voted last week in […]
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index indicated strong growth in housing prices in August. The national composite rose 5.7% year-over-year, up from 4.8% in July. The 20-city composite (excluding missing Detroit data) posted a 5.2% annual gain compared to 4.1% the previous month. The month-over-month analysis showed a 1.1% increase for […]
Residential housing construction remains in high demand as consumers take advantage of favorable interest rates. Sales of new single-family homes in September slipped 3.5 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, but were 32 percent higher than a year ago. Sales in the Northeast fell 28.9 percent from September and sales […]
We had a good conference call with HARDI wholesalers this morning. The dealers who service the mechanical contractors with galvanized sheet and coils continue to be busy. They are surprised at the steepness of the cost curve, and they are beginning to be wary of paying too high a price. One reason they are wary is […]
The agriculture market in the Midwest is on course for a profitable year despite the historic pandemic and a historic storm earlier this summer. Farmers are in the fields more than halfway done with a successful harvest. Grain prices are decent and, combined with government subsidies, “it sounds like net farm income is going to […]
Nine days to go… I don’t know about you but my cell phone is being lit up with political calls/texts from both parties – including states I don’t live in. November 4th can’t get here fast enough… Steel Dynamics reported that their mills (all products) operated at 85 percent and their sheet mills achieved a […]
Existing home sales soared in September, up 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.5 million. Compared to September 2019, sales were up nearly 21 percent, reported the National Association of Realtors. “Home sales traditionally taper off toward the end of the year, but in September they surged beyond what we normally see […]
COVID-19 cases appear to be surging again, and we asked steel buyers to advise if they were seeing any changes to their business due to the new cases. Most reported no impact from the virus, but there were concerns about what government might do if cases continue to rise. No one wants another shutdown of […]
Housing starts continued to grow in September supported by strong interest in single-family home construction. Housing starts climbed 1.9 percent from August and 11.1 percent from a year ago to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000, reported the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family starts leapt 8.5 […]
I made a boo-boo when disclosing the date for Dr. Schultz doing one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. The webinar will be on OCTOBER 28TH, not this Wednesday as was originally advertised. My apologies to those who were looking forward to listening to Dr. Schultz this week. I have information about the webinar a […]
Given all the contentious election rhetoric and concerns over the spread of COVID, industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, remains surprisingly upbeat. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index saw a 12-point jump since the beginning of October, reaching its highest reading since May 2018. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their […]
About 72 percent of the service center and OEM executives polled by Steel Market Update this week said they expect the economy in 2021 to be better than 2020. The other 28 percent was evenly split between those who expect more of the same and those who see next year being even worse. No surprise, […]
Steel Market Update’s service center inventories data for September shows supplies on hand at very low levels. At the same time, the percentage of inventory on order is at very high levels. That suggests, say some observers, that some service centers may have waited too long to replenish their inventories, then did some panic buying […]
Have you ever attended a wedding and thought to yourself as you looked at the lovely young bride and her much older groom: “How is this going to work?” The marriage of U.S. Steel and Big River Steel is raising some of the same doubts. U.S. Steel announced today that is has exercised its option […]
Lead times for hot rolled steel now average longer than six weeks, and coated steel orders longer than eight weeks, as the mills remain busy in a market adjusting to business in a pandemic. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times indicate the mills have more orders to process and are less […]
Flat Rolled = 45 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 51.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat roll inventories fell significantly month on month as shipments increased and mill lead times extended. The SMU service center inventories data for September shows that service centers carried 45 shipping days of supply of flat […]
Welcome to the year that never ends…and the worst part is just beginning. First, the good news. According to the manufacturing and service center executives who made up 82 percent of the respondents to this week’s survey, the steel economy is going to be much improved in 2021 versus what we have seen this year. About […]