Every year the metals industry in the Chicago area produces a fund-raiser for the Boy Scouts of America. As the years have gone by, the dinner has become one of the premium networking opportunities for those associated in the steel and non-ferrous metals industries. We have heard this year’s event, which will be held at […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment came close to expectations in March with a net gain of 192,000 jobs. In addition January and February were revised up by 15,000 and 22,000 respectively. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 178,000 after declining for three straight months (Figure 1). The growth […]
The following is a press release of TranSystems: The TranSystems Transportation Activity Index report for March was released this week, and we saw a flat trend between February and March, but a strong surge over March of last year. The composite reading across all transportation modes came in again at 59.2, flat against February of […]
Steel Market Update received the following “Letter to the Editor” from the West Coast: Here is my view of the flat rolled market. Just my opinion of the state of the industry. You may or may not agree but these are points I think customers should carefully consider: We are seeing a long term shift […]
The recent upturn in the physical market has continued to fuel the upswing in steel futures prices as nearby periods have surged this past week. The May and June HRC contracts have traded to highs of $660/ton while second half periods have traded up to $643. The nearby prices have improved over $40 during the […]
The month of March proved to be an interesting month for the flat rolled steel industry and related commodities associated with the industry, both within North America and around the world. The biggest news was the move by the domestic mills to raise flat rolled steel prices. ArcelorMittal led the way on March 17th when […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a five month low in March registering 52.4, down from 53.2 in February. The index has indicated expansion for sixteen months with March’s reading above its average for the period. All components of the Global Manufacturing PMI remained in growth territory for the month with expansion slowing […]
The Institute of Supply Management report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The March PMI registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from February’s reading of 53.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 10th consecutive month. The […]
The March Chicago Business Barometer slid to its lowest level since August, down 3.9 points to 55.9. The Barometer averaged 58.4 during the first quarter of 2014 indicating recovery but was down from the 2.5 year high of 63.3 in Q4 2013. First quarter results were likely impacted by the harsh weather during the quarter. […]
New residential sales of single-family homes dropped in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 according to estimates by the Commerce Department. Sales were 3.3 percent below the revised January rate of 455,000 and 1.1 percent below the February 2013 estimate of 445,000. Inventory was still tight at 189,000, a 5.2 month supply. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, a decrease of one as the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index has been put on hold until late April to enable […]
Barge shipping is beginning to accelerate as winter ice melts on US waterways. The MID-SHIP Report says navigation has resumed on the Illinois River and the middle section of the Upper Mississippi, north to Clinton, Iowa. The Upper Mississippi is still ice covered and chunks of ice on both rivers are slowing barge transit. The […]
With the expected steel price hikes finally coming to fruition the futures market has reacted strongly as offers were lifted and bids take a step up. After months of a down trending physical market sentiment has taken a clear turn to bullishness. The nearby months (March and April) traded to lows around $615 last week […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) today lauded the decision by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to side with the U.S. on a challenge to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements, tungsten and molybdenum. Rare earths and other products are used in smartphones, automobiles, the defense industry, and wind turbines and are mined […]
Durable goods orders increased in February continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession (Figure 1). However the three month moving average (3MMA) declined as November’s above trend result was dropped from the calculation (Figure 2). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA has progressively declined from 7.9 percent in November […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third estimate of real GDP today, (March 27th) for Q4 2013. The third is normally the final estimate though there sometimes are revisions further back in time. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, this was an upward revision […]
Details on steel trade data out of China were released earlier this week on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled steel imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in February were 61,240,000 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 29.6 percent from the previous month but an increase of 8.5 percent from […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.0 in March driven by an increase of 7.0 in the expectations component and a decline of 0.6 in the consumer’s view of the present situation. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations components increased which caused the 3MMA of the composite to […]
Steel industry leaders met with members of the Congressional Steel Caucus this morning (March 25, 2014) to discuss the need for policy reform on trade, energy, environment and infrastructure in order to keep US industries competitive. SMU has reprinted the short version of the American Iron and Steel Institute press release below. The full testimonies […]
The following article on hot rolled futures (HRC), #1 busheling futures (BUS) as well as information regarding the iron ore spot pricing and futures trading in China is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk workshop series. Our new: Managing Price Risk 2: […]
Demand for architectural design services inched up in February registering 50.7 on the American Institute of Architects (AIA) Architecture Billings Index, up just slightly from 50.4 in January. The new projects inquiry index fell to 56.8 from 58.5 the previous month. Increase in design activity for multi-family residential and commercial nudged growth in February. “The […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The Industrial Production (IP) index was reported as 101.63 for February, this was the fourth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of the index expanded by 0.62 month on […]
The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose slightly to 5.61 from 4.48 in February, below economist expectations of 6.0 to 7.0. New orders increased to 3.13 after contracting to -0.21 last month. Shipments rose to 3.97, up from 2.13 in February. Inventories increased during the month evidenced by an index reading of 7.06 compared to […]
Canadian manufacturing sales took its largest jump since February 2013, rising 1.5 percent to $50.4 billion. (Note all dollar amounts are Canadian: 1 Canadian dollar = $.90 US dollar.) Sales were up in 45 percent of the manufacturing sectors in January with primary metal sales leading the gains. Sales for primary metals jumped 8 percent […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported February results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. See below for the official description […]
After a shake in confidence last month, metalforming companies are once again optimistic that business conditions will improve in the next three months, albeit only slightly. Metal companies surveyed in the March 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, however, are anticipating new orders to fall slightly during that same period. Current average daily […]
Haixen Steel, a mill in Shanxi province of China, suspended operations on five blast furnaces after defaulting on a bank loans due on March 7. Haixen is not a top tier Chinese steel mill nor is the default and shutdown a surprise to most. It is a mill heavy in debt and on the Chinese […]
The following article on the financial, hot rolled coil futures, busheling scrap futures and iron ore markets is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk 1 and 2 instructor. Financial Markets: Today was not a good one, a repeat of last week when the market retraced on the back […]
Canada was the highest volume exporter of all carbon and low alloy steel products to the US in both the last 12 and 3 month periods through January with 4,956,812 and 1,172,616 tons respectively (Figure 1). Mexico came in 4th in 12 months after Brazil and Korea but was bumped into 5th place by Russia […]
Housing starts and new home prices both improved in early 2014. Canadian new home prices rose 0.3 percent in January following a 0.1 percent drop in December. The increase in the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was the largest since May 2012. Prices soared 1.3 percent in the Calgary metropolitan area due to higher material […]