The consumer confidence index decreased by 1.6 in April driven by a decline of 4.2 in the present situation component and an increase of 0.1 in expectations. Job availability was the main drag, a surprising result since economists expect the April net job creation report to be strong when reported by the Bureau of Labor […]
Home prices are continuing to rise but at a slower pace according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices. The S&P Dow Jones Indices are released monthly and compare annual rate gain for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The current indice, released at the end of April, shows the rate of gain in February at 13.1 […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end […]
The following is an analysis of trading over the past week in the financial markets, especially in the hot rolled coil derivatives (futures) and busheling scrap futures markets. This article was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor for the Steel Market Update Managing Price Risk series including our newest addition: […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
This seems to be a week of disappointing economic indicators. The Architecture Billings Index turned negative this month after climbing up from a reading of 48.6 in December. The March reading was just 48.8, down from 50.7 in February and 50.4 in January. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future […]
Details on steel trade data out of China were released earlier this week regarding iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore during March were 73,960,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 20.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 14.6 percent from March […]
Business conditions will remain steady for the next three months said metalforming companies in the April 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Of those surveyed, 36 percent predict economic activity will improve while 56 percent say it will remain unchanged. Almost no change was expected for incoming orders in the April survey, with […]
Chinese statistical data is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. However at SMU we believe that in spite of these concerns what we have is […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
The hot rolled futures market over the past week has consolidated gains on the nearby months. May and June have traded to a high of $685 and $680, reflecting optimism in continued short term strength in the physical market. The back end of the curve is not experiencing as strong buying interest, as the Q3 […]
US Steel Gary Works is not alone as the mill limps along on two of its blast furnaces operating at reduced capacities due to a lack of raw materials. According to a US Steel spokesperson nothing has changed over the past five or six days as the mill waits for further shipments coming from Northern […]
More than half of steel buyers in the March Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey are expecting incoming orders to rise in the next three months. The percentage rose from 27.3 in February to 53.3 in March with the rest expecting the order trend to remain the same. Backlogs are expected to remain […]
Business activity was flat for New York manufacturers in April according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The main index for general business conditions fell four points to 1.3. New orders declined slightly in April while the shipments index showed little change. The unfilled orders index was negative at […]
The Broad Index value of the US Dollar has been gradually increasing for 18 months (Figure 1) which tends of raise imports to the US and depress exports. The broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading […]
The following article is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level members would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel free to contact our offices: […]
The following article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our instructor for our Managing Price Risk and Managing Price Risk 2: Strategies & Execution workshops. Financial Markets: Well we are a fairly precarious point in the S+P 500 and DOW. You might recall that we were headed to 1900 to test […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave their quarterly global steel outlook on April 8. BofAML predicts demand for finished steel in China will grow 4.4 percent in 2014. Chinese crude steel production is expected to increase 4.6 to 815 million tons. The outlook is for a trend of slowing but positive growth. Despite mill closings […]
Seaborne freight rates are in a valley trough right now according to the April 9 MID-SHIP Report. Freight prices dropped dramatically in all segments of the Baltic market as oversupply of ships caught up with diminished demand, exacerbated by extreme winter weather this year. Other pressure to rates included China turning away shipments of US […]
Every year the metals industry in the Chicago area produces a fund-raiser for the Boy Scouts of America. As the years have gone by, the dinner has become one of the premium networking opportunities for those associated in the steel and non-ferrous metals industries. We have heard this year’s event, which will be held at […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment came close to expectations in March with a net gain of 192,000 jobs. In addition January and February were revised up by 15,000 and 22,000 respectively. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 178,000 after declining for three straight months (Figure 1). The growth […]
The following is a press release of TranSystems: The TranSystems Transportation Activity Index report for March was released this week, and we saw a flat trend between February and March, but a strong surge over March of last year. The composite reading across all transportation modes came in again at 59.2, flat against February of […]
Steel Market Update received the following “Letter to the Editor” from the West Coast: Here is my view of the flat rolled market. Just my opinion of the state of the industry. You may or may not agree but these are points I think customers should carefully consider: We are seeing a long term shift […]
The recent upturn in the physical market has continued to fuel the upswing in steel futures prices as nearby periods have surged this past week. The May and June HRC contracts have traded to highs of $660/ton while second half periods have traded up to $643. The nearby prices have improved over $40 during the […]
The month of March proved to be an interesting month for the flat rolled steel industry and related commodities associated with the industry, both within North America and around the world. The biggest news was the move by the domestic mills to raise flat rolled steel prices. ArcelorMittal led the way on March 17th when […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a five month low in March registering 52.4, down from 53.2 in February. The index has indicated expansion for sixteen months with March’s reading above its average for the period. All components of the Global Manufacturing PMI remained in growth territory for the month with expansion slowing […]
The Institute of Supply Management report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The March PMI registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from February’s reading of 53.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the 10th consecutive month. The […]
The March Chicago Business Barometer slid to its lowest level since August, down 3.9 points to 55.9. The Barometer averaged 58.4 during the first quarter of 2014 indicating recovery but was down from the 2.5 year high of 63.3 in Q4 2013. First quarter results were likely impacted by the harsh weather during the quarter. […]
New residential sales of single-family homes dropped in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 according to estimates by the Commerce Department. Sales were 3.3 percent below the revised January rate of 455,000 and 1.1 percent below the February 2013 estimate of 445,000. Inventory was still tight at 189,000, a 5.2 month supply. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, a decrease of one as the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index has been put on hold until late April to enable […]