Contributor: Michael Cowden

Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices remain in the holding pattern they've been in since mid-December, according to SMU pricing archives.

I’d have been surprised if anyone told me just last week that the January scrap market might move lower. What we saw on Friday were offers. Not settlements. And no doubt there are still some twists and turns in store before we can say for sure which way scrap will go.

Cleveland-Cliffs didn’t wait long to roll out the first price increase of the year - $1,150 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s up $50 per ton from the steelmaker’s last published price. Will anyone follow? I’ve heard some mills are meeting this week but that any announcement might not come until next week. We'll see.

Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma Steel Group Inc. guided toward lower earnings in its fiscal 2024 third quarter, citing the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and lower steel prices last fall.

New Reibus CEO Temy Mancusi-Ungaro and company President Chris Shipp will join SMU for the inaugural Community Chat of 2024 on Wednesday, Jan. 10, at 11 am ET. You can register here.

SMU doesn’t do forecasts. We leave that to our colleagues at CRU. But we’re pretty good at surveys, and we’ve got a great group of readers. That’s why we decided to ask you what’s in store for 2024. The results are below, along with some insightful comments in italics.

Sheet prices were mixed in SMU’s first assessment of the market in the New Year.

Steel Market Update plans to take some time off for Christmas and the New Year holiday.

A White House official said the planned $14.1-billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel deserved a closer look. President Joe Biden "believes the purchase of this iconic American-owned company by a foreign entity—even one from a close ally—appears to deserve serious scrutiny in terms of its potential impact on national security and supply chain reliability."

Metalformers remain optimistic about business prospects for the first quarter of 2024 despite some concerns about what Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might mean for domestic supply chains.

Global steel production rose in November compared to a year earlier with output in China roughly flat and significant gains elsewhere, according to the latest figures from the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

I was asked to do an interview for a cable news channel in Ohio about Nippon Steel’s planned acquisition of U.S. Steel for more than $14 billion.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were unchanged week over week (WoW) following a string of mostly upward moves dating back to late September.

Nippon Steel will acquire U.S. Steel in a deal valued at $14.9 billion, or $55 per share, the two companies announced on Monday morning. The Japanese steelmaker will keep U.S. Steel's iconic logo and its Pittsburgh headquarters, the companies said.

As 2023 draws to a close, I wanted to look back on some of the key events and themes of the year. But I’m going to hold off on that idea because we were – as of Sunday afternoon - still waiting on news about arguably the biggest event of the year, the potential sale of U.S. Steel.

Thursday felt eerily quiet after a frenzy of steel and financial market news on Wednesday.

U.S. Steel on Thursday afternoon said it expected lower earnings in the fourth quarter compared to the third. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker predicted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of approximately $250 million, or $0.20-$0.25 per diluted share.

U.S. Steel has resumed normal production of cold-rolled coil (CRC) at its Irvin Plant, part of the steelmaker’s Mon Valley Works in western Pennsylvania.

U.S. Steel has received multiple bids valuing the company at more than $40 per share, CNBC reported on Wednesday.

Steel is up again this week. Scrap is up by a lot this month: $85 per gross ton for busheling, by our calculations.

Sheet prices increased again this week on the heels of higher costs for scrap, pig iron, and iron ore.

U.S. Steel will continue to operate the hot strip mill and finishing lines at its Granite City Works in southern Illinois.

Bank of America SVP Ira Kreft will be the featured speaker on SMU’s Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Dec. 13, at 11 am ET. You can register here.

We have seen a wave of service center transactions announced since the beginning of the month.

A large Detroit-area scrap buyer entered the market on Wednesday at significantly higher prices than a month earlier.

I want to thank the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) for the opportunity to speak at their annual conference in Phoenix. I enjoyed the proceedings and participating in a panel for HARDI’s sheet metal/air handling council. I can’t recap all that we discussed in a few hundred words. But I’d like to share […]

Sheet prices shot higher again this week on the heels of another round of mill price increases as well as on reports of production and supply chain issues at certain domestic producers.

Bank of America SVP Ira Kreft will be the featured speaker on SMU’s Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Dec. 13, at 11 am ET. We’ll discuss M&A in the steel and metals industries. Is there still room for consolidation in flat-rolled steel?

Bids for U.S. Steel are due on Friday, according to sources familiar with the matter. Friday is also allegedly when a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) between Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker expires.

I want to address a few things in this 'Final thoughts': the latest SMU survey results, the plate market, and the potential sale of U.S. Steel.