• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    February 22, 2024

    Final thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden

    I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six.

    Obviously a lot depends on whether we’re talking 50 st or 50,000 st. I’ve even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.

    Michael Cowden

    Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

    Read more from Michael Cowden

    Latest in Analysis

    Mills seek more scrap after lower prices fail to attract tons

    Several mills that bought October scrap early last week are still asking for additional supplies, scrap market participants said. The reason: the mills' initial prices did not attract enough of the raw material, they said. A trading source based in northern Ohio said three mills have contacted his firm seeking offers for additional tons. He said the mills asked for offers even if prices were higher than their original buys last week.

    The words "Aluminum Market Update" in white against a dark blue background

    AMU: Edward Meir’s week in review and thoughts for the week of Oct. 12, 2026

    Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.

    Leibowitz: US steel prices skyrocket above world prices. Which are right?

    Steel markets in the United States now feature supply shortages. Spot tons are well-nigh unavailable, and even contract tons are scarce. Based on the available statistics, the US market for flat-rolled products is seriously constrained. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and manufacturing output remains vigorous. But the available supply is tight. The reason is fairly obvious. US domestic supply has increased a bit. Meanwhile, imports have fallen significantly.