Steel Prices

SMU price ranges: HR falls below $900/st as market seeks floor

Written by David Schollaert & Michael Cowden

February 20, 2024

US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen below $900 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since early November.

SMU’s HR price stands at $875/st on average, down $65/st from a week ago and down $170/st from the beginning of the year.

We haven’t recorded such a steep week-over-week (w/w) decline since June 2022, when prices rapidly retreated following a spike earlier in the year stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

There is no obvious external shock that sparked the decline this time. Instead, it appears to be a collection of smaller issues – higher service center inventories, weaker-than-expected scrap prices, increased import competition, and a normalization of US prices with world prices.

Cold-rolled (CR) and coated prices held up somewhat better but still fell. SMU’s CR price stands at $1,185/st on average, down $10/st from a week ago. Galvanized base prices are at $1,180/st, down $25/st from last week. And Galvalume prices are at $1,215/st, down $15/st from a week ago.

The result: Spreads between HR and CR/coated base prices are more than $300/st on average – much higher than the $200/st spread the market has become accustomed to in recent years. Several sources said they expect that spread to narrow as prices for tandem products follow HR lower on a lag.

Plate, meanwhile, stands at $1,320/st on average, down $10/st from last week.

SMU’s price momentum indicators for all sheet and plate products continue to point lower.

Hot-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $820–930/st, with an average of $875/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range was down $80 per st vs. one week ago, while the top end of our range was down $50/st w/w. Our overall average is $65/st lower from last week. Our price momentum indicator for HRC remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Hot rolled lead times: 3–8 weeks

Cold-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $1,120–1,250/st, with an average of $1,185/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was flat vs. the prior week, while the top end of our range was down $20/st. Our overall average is down $10/st from last week. Our price momentum indicator for CRC remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Cold rolled lead times: 6–9 weeks

Galvanized coil

The SMU price range is $1,110–1,250/st, with an average of $1,180/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was down $30/st vs. the prior week, while the top end of our range was $20/st lower w/w. Our overall average is $25/st lower than the week prior. Our price momentum indicator for galvanized remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,207–1,347/st with an average of $1,277/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized lead times: 5–10 weeks

Galvalume coil

The SMU price range is $1,160–1,270/st, with an average of $1,215/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was flat w/w, while the top end of our range was down 30/st from the prior week. Our overall average was down $15/st when compared to the previous week. Our price momentum indicator for Galvalume remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, grade 80 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,454–1,564/st with an average of $1,509/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume lead times: 7–8 weeks

Plate

The SMU price range is $1,260–1,380/st, with an average of $1,320/st FOB mill. The lower end of our range was down $20/st vs. the week prior, while the top end of our range was flat w/w. Our overall average is down $10/st vs. one week ago. Our price momentum indicator for plate remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Plate lead times: 4-7 weeks

SMU note: Above is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is also available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

Read more from David Schollaert

Michael Cowden

Michael Cowden is managing editor for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He has since 2014 specialized in flat-rolled steel but has previously reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube as well as aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago - where he was involved in launching AMM's daily hot-rolled coil index, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

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