Contributor: Michael Cowden

We've used the word "unprecedented" a lot over the last four years to describe steel price volatility. Over the last two months – despite earlier predictions of a price surge - we've seen unprecedented stability.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. continued to lose money in the first quarter, with the steelmaker blaming the loss in part on the idling of its tinplate facility in Weirton, W.Va.

I was in Las Vegas last week for ISRI’s annual convention. I like Vegas. I’ve had some fun there over the years. (I was married there nearly 20 years ago. We're still together.) And last week was no exception. So let’s start with the big news from Sin City. When the recycled materials industry meets for the big event next year, it will be under the banner of "ReMA" – not "ISRI".

Workers at Volkswagen's assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., have voted overwhelmingly to join the United Autoworkers (UAW) union. More than 3,600 ballots were cast, with 73% of Chattanooga workers voting to join the UAW and only 27% voting against unionization, per the UAW.

The steel market appears to be finding a new, higher normal with the shocks of the pandemic and the Ukraine in the rearview mirror. The good news: a more profitable and consolidated post-Covid US steel industry has been able to invest in operations. That includes efforts to decarbonize. The bad news: That “new normal” could be tested. Because it’s not just domestic sheet prices that have been volatile. Geopolitics are too.

I’m writing these Final thoughts from the 2024 ISRI Convention and Exposition in Las Vegas. I wasn’t the only one with the good idea to attend. Approximately 6,625 others did – a new record for the event. So, a big congratulations to ISRI.

Last week was a newsy one for the US sheet market. Nucor’s announcement that it would publish a weekly HR spot price was the talk of the town – whether that was in chatter among colleagues, at the Boy Scouts of America Metals Industry dinner, or in SMU’s latest market survey. Some think that it could Nucor's spot HR price could bring stability to notoriously volatile US sheet prices, according to SMU's latest steel market survey. Others think it’s too early to gauge its impact. And still others said they were leery of any attempt by producers to control prices.

Ken Simonson, chief economist for The Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 17, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here.

Nucor made waves in the sheet market when it announced on Friday that it would begin publishing a weekly hot-rolled (HR) coil price. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker arguably made even bigger waves on Monday when it posted its first weekly HR number: $830 per short ton. That’s $70/st lower than the $900/st HR price Cliffs announced in late March. It’s also lower than prices in the mid-$800s that other mills were (less publicly) seeking.

Nucor said its spot hot-rolled (HR) coil price this week will be $830 per short ton (st).

Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 10, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. You can register here. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck will be available only for SMU members.

Sheet prices continue to inch higher. That’s a welcome development for many. But it’s also a far cry from the price surge many predicted about a month ago. Remember the theory that supported a spring surge: Sheet prices would soar on a combination of mill outages, stable-to-strong demand, restocking, mill price increases, and (potentially) trade action against Mexico as well.

Nucor plans to publish a weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil beginning on Monday, April 8, according to a press release and letters to customers. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said its published HR price would be derived from “both quantitative and qualitative data” in the letter to customers on Thursday, April 4.

You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.

Nucor intends to keep plate prices unchanged with the open of its May order book, according to a letter to customers dated Thursday, March 28. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the announcement would be effective with new orders received on Friday, March 29.

SMU latest' steel market survey paints the picture of sheet market that has hit bottom and begun to rebound. Lead times are extending again after stabilizing earlier this month. Mills are far less willing to negotiate lower sheet prices - even if there are still deals to be had on plate, according to the steel buyers we canvassed.

SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).

Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 3, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free. You can register here. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck are available only SMU members.

I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.

SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.

Join SMU’s next Community Chat webinar with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. The webinar will be on Wednesday, March 20, at 11 a.m. ET. It’s free for all to attend. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.

Reaction to the price announcements last week by domestic mills varied just a little depending on who you were speaking to. I heard rumblings before the announcements that a price hike of $100 per short ton (st) was coming. After the announcements were made, I had some questions as to whether they were increases at all.

ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price for hot-rolled (HR) coil of $825 per ton. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker said the new floor price was effective immediately in a letter to its commercial team dated Friday, March 8.

A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?

Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs on Thursday announced target minimum base prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil. Both said the moves were effective immediately.

Sheet and plate prices this week continued the downward trend they’ve been on for most of 2024. Some market sources predicted that a wave of spring maintenance outages would help to stabilize lead times and prices in the weeks ahead – especially should service center inventories, high at the beginning of the year, come down meaningfully.

A clear consensus has emerged among respondents to SMU’s latest steel market survey that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will bottom this month or in April. Seventy-five percent of respondents to our latest survey think that prices will find a floor before May as the chart below shows:

I want to give a big shoutout to the good folks at the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) for inviting me to their annual conference this week in Clearwater, Fla. I also want to give a special thanks to the FMA for awarding SMU founder John Packard with a lifetime achievement award – on that also gave me a chance to catch up with my old boss in person.

Worthington Steel President and CEO Geoff Gilmore will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, March 6, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording is available only to SMU subscribers. You can register here.

What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.