Tag: CRU

CRU research manager Stephen Williamson shares his views of this week's aluminum market.

July 2023- Facetime: Steel market analyst JOSH SPOORES talks with Modern Metals about CRU steel prices Q: Josh, you have been involved in the steel industry for quite a while. Can you give MM’s readers a quick summary of your experience?  A: I joined the industry in 2005 and worked at a mill, service center, my own research company and then have been at CRU since 2012. I started learning the industry at Majestic Steel USA. They bought and sold in the spot market and carry a huge amount of inventory in anticipation of sales. Working there taught me an incredible amount about procurement strategy as well as how to develop a unique brand of market analysis. It’s this real-world analysis that matters—immersing yourself in data points and information, but, at the same time, making sure to eliminate any excess noise.

The spread between US and offshore hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continues to narrow as domestic tags have declined further, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.

US Midwest premium has continued to trend lower. Slack end-use demand is the main driver as the CME backwardation holds for dates further out in 2023. Lower freight and weak LME prices lower the replacement costs of aluminum and thus lower the floor for the premium.

Iron ore prices remained elevated in July, averaging $112 /dmt for the month, unchanged from June.

The spread between US and offshore hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices has narrowed to its lowest level since mid-February, when domestic prices were still trending upwards, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.

There are about 20 days to go until SMU’s 2023 Steel Summit Conference, and there’s still plenty of time to register – just click here! More than 1,200 people have registered to attend so far, which means we’re on track to exceed last year’s record. Steel Summit is Monday-Wednesday, Aug. 21-23, in Atlanta at the Georgia International Convention Center […]

There is a lot going on at SMU right now. We’re going to be rolling out a new website over the next few days. We’ve also got more than 1,200 people registered to attend Steel Summit this year, putting us on pace to potentially break last year’s attendance record of nearly 1,300. The event is […]

China recently became the world’s largest exporter of cars. Experience from the steel industry suggests this is not a trend that will reverse.

China recently became the world’s largest exporter of cars. Experience from the steel industry suggests this is not a trend that will reverse, though it might reduce. Changes in auto supply chains and metals demand outside China are likely. China Is Now the World’s Largest Car Exporter China recently became the world’s largest exporter of […]

The LME aluminum three-month price is moving higher again, closing the week on the morning of July 28 at $2,215 per tonne. The previous day, the price dropped sharply at the close and briefly moved below $2,200/t. The next day the price was seen increasing again, suggesting support at $2,200/t has once again been regained. 

The LME aluminum three-month price is moving higher again, closing the week on the morning of July 28 at $2,215 per tonne. The previous day, the price dropped sharply at the close and briefly moved below $2,200/t. The next day the price was seen increasing again, suggesting support at $2,200/t has once again been regained.  […]

Over the last month, the iron ore price has shown more weakness as fewer participants in the market maintain a positive outlook based on more stimulus measures in China. Simultaneously, on the supply side, Australia followed seasonal trends with a marginal y/y increase. Recovered Brazilian volumes have also begun to weigh on the market. Supply […]

Over the last month, the iron ore price has shown more weakness as fewer participants in the market maintain a positive outlook based on more stimulus measures in China. Simultaneously, on the supply side, Australia followed seasonal trends with a marginal y/y increase. Recovered Brazilian volumes have also begun to weigh on the market. Supply […]

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of […]

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of the policy resulting in its continuation, it is clear that it has had a positive impact on parts of the industry. However, there are also a handful of knock-on effects that have become apparent.

We've reached approximately 1,100 registrations for SMU's 2023 Steel Summit Conference, which is only 31 days away. There's still plenty of time to register, just click here.

The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product declined this past week, as prices abroad moved up while domestic tags declined, according to SMU's latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.

The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product declined this past week, as prices abroad moved up while domestic tags declined, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. HRC tags stateside declined $20 per ton vs. the prior week, slipping to their lowest level since mid-February. Domestic prices are now down $290 […]

By CRU senior analyst, Ryan McKinley Oversupply in most markets of the world is easing. The key trend we are following (and expecting to occur) is further output cuts in China, which should keep many markets more stable than they have been recently. In China, sheet oversupply will not ease in the coming week given […]

With demand trending lower throughout out the first half of 2023, the aluminum industry is searching for something to be optimistic about. Recent economic news is leaning positive, with inflation slowing across multiple measures including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and manufacturing final goods’ pricing. Personal consumption expenditure has slowed from its peak but sustained […]

June 1 was the most recent low for CME Midwest HRC futures. At that time, the curve was approximately flat around $800 per short ton (st). Since then, the August future has rallied $188/st, settling today at $983/st, while the September future has rallied $160/st, settling today at $953/st. The chart below compares the curve […]

The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product has changed little over the past few weeks, as both prices abroad and stateside have inched up in tandem recently, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. HRC tags stateside are still down $280 per ton since peaking at $1,160 per ton back in […]

It’s the time of year when I’m going to be banging the drum about Steel Summit – even in the lede to Final Thoughts 🙂 We’ll get to the latest steel market trends in a moment. But first I want to highlight that hotels are still available near the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta, where […]

The LME aluminum 3-month price is moving down again after the 4th of July holiday and was last trading near $2,130 per metric ton (as of the writing of this article on July 7). The fact that the price resumed sharp declines and is not challenging the next resistance at $2,200 per metric ton shows […]

The United States and Indian governments have agreed to terminate six disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Benefits from the settlement include opening the US to more shipments of steel and aluminum made in India, according to New Delhi. “As a part of the agreement, the US has agreed to grant market access to […]

With the US aluminum industry at a critical juncture, a new report is highlighting ways the Biden administration can use the Global Arrangement for Sustainable Steel and Aluminum (GASSA) to help the struggling domestic industry. Recall CRU’s aluminum analysts have previously shared with SMU the nightmare US aluminum smelters have been facing when it comes […]

US-EU talks on a global arrangement on carbon emissions are back in the news, and the latest is that Europe might have sunk a potential deal with the States, according to reporting from The Financial Times. If no deal is reached, Section 232 tariffs of 25% on steel from the EU could be reinstated. That […]

France’s labor inspectorate has told Luxembourg-headquartered ArcelorMittal to temporarily close the hot end of its Fos-sur-Mer steel works because insufficient protection measures are exposing employees to high levels of toxic products and dust. The order will lead to the shutdown of the entire site, local media reported. The plant has been the subject of several […]

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains at a premium to offshore product, even as recent price declines have brought domestic hot band to its lowest mark since mid-February, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. HRC tags stateside are down $285 per ton since peaking at $1,160 per ton back in mid-April, and are […]