By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Steel Monitor It now seems clear that Joe Biden will become U.S. president in January. However, it is likely that the Republicans will maintain their Senate majority. This will significantly limit Biden’s ability to implement his economic policy agenda. In this insight, we […]
Steel Market Update’s service center inventories data for September shows supplies on hand at very low levels. At the same time, the percentage of inventory on order is at very high levels. That suggests, say some observers, that some service centers may have waited too long to replenish their inventories, then did some panic buying […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The dollar has been extremely volatile over the past two quarters. Underlying this is macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect such uncertainty and volatility to continue into Q4, but trade-weighted dollar and dollar-euro to be range bound around a stable trend. […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) was unchanged m/m in October at 225.6 following large price increases the prior month. Supply in many markets became more available as prices rose, and this helped prevent additional upside pressure. For November, market sentiment is that prices […]
By CRU Analysts Ben Carstein and Lize Wan On Oct. 9, it was reported that Chinese state-owned power plants and steel mills had received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian metallurgical and thermal coal with immediate effect. In this article, we review the announcement and its potential implications. Has the Announcement Been […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary The U.S. economy saw an impressive overall rebound through Q3, following severe Covid-19 disruption in Q2. We estimate that U.S. industrial production contracted 7.5% y/y in Q3, following a decline of 14.4% y/y in Q2. However, the momentum of the recovery is slowing as fiscal stimulus and the effects […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Iron ore prices have fallen by $8 /dmt in the past month as seaborne supply has been robust, even during the start of the new quarter, which is typically a weak supply period. As a result, arrivals to China have remained strong and […]
By CRU Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The spike in sheet purchasing activity pushed prices up $200 /s.ton over the last two months and mill lead times for HR coil over six weeks. Steel Market Update, which is owned by CRU, also reported CR and HDG coil lead times in the […]
By CRU Multi-Commodity Analysts Zanna Aleksahhina and Will Young Over the summer and into Q3 2020 commodity prices staged a remarkable recovery from Q2 lows and in October many prices are comfortably above where they started the year. Given that the major economies are still struggling to control the spread of Covid-19, underlying demand is […]
Flat Rolled = 45 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 51.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat roll inventories fell significantly month on month as shipments increased and mill lead times extended. The SMU service center inventories data for September shows that service centers carried 45 shipping days of supply of flat […]
Welcome to the year that never ends…and the worst part is just beginning. First, the good news. According to the manufacturing and service center executives who made up 82 percent of the respondents to this week’s survey, the steel economy is going to be much improved in 2021 versus what we have seen this year. About […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Iron ore prices have remained steady in the past week as a price increase last Thursday was met by similar falls in the past few days. Steel prices in China have risen after the holidays on an optimistic demand view, but iron ore […]
By CRU Analyst Anh Nghiem, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Optimism from the steel market led to good buying interest of iron ore from Chinese steel mills last week. There was also post-holidays restocking demand as iron ore inventory at Chinese steel mills fell by 13% w/w last week. However, there was an announcement […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
We are now 23 days from the close of the 2020 presidential election. I think all of us, no matter how we use our vote, are hoping for a quick decision and then an orderly move to either the second term of President Trump or the new Biden administration. If you have not already voted, […]
This week’s foreign vs domestic hot rolled steel price comparison shows that U.S-producers are moving closer to losing their price advantage over foreign imports, according to SMU and CRU indices released this week. The price differentials between domestic HRC compared to foreign imports had widened through mid-August to reach record highs, but have since declined […]
By CRU China CEO John Johnson and CRU Senior Consultant Ashley Wang from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor On Sept. 22, in a statement to the United Nations General Assembly, President Xi Jinping announced to world leaders that China “aims to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”. The part of this statement concerning CO2 was brief […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell from CRU’s Long Products Monitor Global long product prices increased in many markets this month as strengthening demand combined with higher costs and for some products in particular. Strength was not uniform however; prices were weaker in Southeast Asia and China, the latter due to weaker sentiment following lower […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook In less than a year Cleveland-Cliffs has transformed themselves from a Great Lakes-based iron ore miner to the largest fully integrated flat rolled steel producer in the USA. Cliffs has done this by acquiring AK Steel earlier this year and now they […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham and CRU Research Analyst Eric Lucking, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service At CRU, we forecast the exchange rates for all the countries where our relevant commodities are produced. Our short and medium-term view is reviewed each quarter. This is anchored to our long-term forecast, which uses a […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service China has banned steel scrap imports for the past year as part of its solid waste management policies that affect imports on a wide range of metal scrap and plastic waste. Recently, policymakers announced that a review on these policies will be sped […]
All the integrated steel mills in the United States will soon be controlled by U.S. companies. Cleveland-Cliffs is buying ArcelorMittal USA assets…well, most of the U.S. assets. They did not acquire the ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert steel mill located just outside of Mobile, Ala., and they did not purchase the Dofasco plant located in Hamilton, Ontario, […]
From the CRU weekly Steel Monitor: Most Chinese product prices were either unchanged or marginally lower this week, except for HR coil, that has fallen RMB220 /t ($32 /t) over three weeks. Although this keeps Chinese prices at a relatively high level, it has created caution and may now indicate a limit to how far rallies in […]
Following on a big jump in ferrous scrap in September, scrap prices are expected to move higher for obsolete grades and sideways or higher for prime grades in October, lending further support to rising finished steel prices. “Domestic steel capacity utilization and prices are rising, but the large price increase last month has not resulted […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. David has over 20 years of financial market trading experience and has been active in the ferrous futures space for eight years. David earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with concentrations in economics, statistics and analytical finance. […]
This week’s comparison of foreign and domestic hot rolled prices shows that the large price advantage held by U.S-producers over foreign imports is rapidly loosing steam, according to the latest SMU and CRU indices. The price differentials between domestic HRC compared to foreign imports had widened over the last few months to reach record highs […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary and found in CRU’s Zinc Monitor US steel mills have reportedly been taking more refined zinc over the past few weeks and the outlook for Q4 is looking slightly more positive according to market contacts. There have been suggestions that the uptick in spot demand from mills could be […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Economist Anissa Chabib The U.S. economy has seen a faster than expected resumption of economic activity since the “stay at home” orders ended in May. Most notable has been the improvement in the labor market. The number of people who lost their jobs in March and April was […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service A combination of increased seasonal demand, low service center inventories, unplanned outages, spike in scrap prices and government restrictions on Brazilian slab imports have added fuel to the usual seasonal uptick and turned it into a surge. After reaching a bottom in mid-August, […]
Flat Rolled = 48.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 56.9 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers’ flat rolled steel supply reached its lowest point of the year in August, as shipments increased and intake remained nearly flat month on month. In August, service centers carried 48.6 shipping days of supply of flat […]