The US economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 with gross domestic production declining at a 1.4% annualized pace. The drop was a sharp reversal from an annual growth rate of 6.9% from October through December, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The initial estimate for Q1 was the […]
Total mill shipments of steel products fell for the second straight month in February to 7.655 million tons, a 6.1% decline from January’s 8.153 million tons. Apparent supply also fell in February, down 12.1% versus the prior month, falling repeatedly and unable to maintain the momentum seen during the final quarter of 2021. This analysis is based […]
North American auto assemblies grew by 18.1% in March, expanding for the third straight month despite ongoing supply hurdles. Though North American production has improved since last December, March’s recovery was just 1% higher year on year. And it’s still 13.5% below the pre-pandemic period of March 2019. At the onset of 2022, the global auto […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. chairman, president and CEO Lourenco Goncalves blasted low US tariffs on Russian pig iron given sharply higher ones on steel. The pig iron tariff – $1.11 per metric ton, or $1 per short ton – is too little to stop companies, notably electric-arc furnace (EAF) sheet mills, from importing raw material from Russia, […]
US apparent steel supply levels slipped 11% from January to February, down 997,000 net tons to 8.37 million tons, according to the latest US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Recall that just last September, the market saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years (9.92 million tons). […]
President Biden on Friday signed two pieces of trade legislation that sailed through Congress: the “Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act” (HR 6968), which prohibits imports of oil, gas and other energy products from Russia, and “Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act” (HR 7108), which imposes higher “Column 2” tariffs on imports […]
By CRU Senior Coal Analyst Dmitry Popov, and Senior Analyst Banmeet Khurmi, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, April 7 Among the latest sanctions against Russia, the EU is planning to introduce a full import ban of Russian coal from August 2022. In this Insight, we look at the EU’s reliance on Russia for thermal […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
US steel exports increased 5% in February to 727,000 net tons, following a 6% rise in January, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. The 12-month moving average through February has now reached a 3-year high. February exports are 7% higher than levels seen one year ago. As shown in the graph below, […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has continued to rock commodity and financial markets. We expect the fallout from the invasion to reduce world growth this year and next, through three main channels: Energy prices. Russia is a major producer and exporter of […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, April 5. Iron ore has risen again in the past week as lockdowns in China have fuelled hopes of new stimulus measures, resulting in an overall bullish sentiment last week, ahead of the Chinese Qingming holiday (Sunday–Tuesday). Iron ore has now returned to […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since the onslaught of the war in Ukraine last month, the aluminum market has been fixated on the timing and severity of economic sanctions on the Russian aluminum sector. This attention is warranted given the importance of Russian primary aluminum in global trade. As discussed in prior columns, Russia […]
The US economy closed out 2021 by expanding at an annual pace of 6.9% from October through December, a slight downgrade from previous estimates, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This agency’s third and final review showed the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) up 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the […]
Too much went on last week to limit this week’s column to a single issue. The Ukraine war touches everything these days, including almost all recent developments on the trade front. It was a week that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, was “not entirely uneventful.” First, the NATO summit meeting took on issues that have divided Europe […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, March 21 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through the world economy. What does war mean for the world economy? We outlined three scenarios in terms of severity of impact from the war itself, but most crucially from sanctions and the response to those […]
The U.S.-UK agreement to ease Section 232 tariffs was lauded by some industry groups and union representatives for promoting fair trade. But others questioned whether certain unusual provisions in the deal might cause trouble. And still others said the deal didn’t do enough to remove tariffs from a close U.S. ally. Recall that on Tuesday the United States […]
The United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to a deal to ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The contours of the agreement match what Steel Market Update reported earlier in the day on Tuesday, March 22. “Today’s historic deal is a testament to that ambitious goal and will benefit America’s steel […]
The Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) are expected to announce an agreement with the United Kingdom to ease Section 232 tariffs on its steel exports, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal, slated to go into effect on June 1, is expected to be announced at approximately […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, March 22 In the past week, the iron ore price has been influenced by two notable shocks, a supply shock from lost CIS volumes, which has been occurring since the invasion, and a demand shock from China after lockdowns created bearish sentiments. Improving […]
The war in Ukraine continues to impact the volatility in steel markets around the world. Here in the United States, we have seen steel buyers coming off the sidelines as they look to protect themselves against the possibility of being short steel. This despite flat-rolled steel inventories being at 2.72 months’ supply at the end […]
North American auto assemblies grew by 8.0% in February, expanding for the second straight month despite ongoing supply hurdles. Though last month’s production was 2.2% higher year on year, it was 21.1% below the same pre-pandemic period in 2020. Despite February’s production gains, the industry was met with strong supply-related headwinds. The ongoing supply-chain and […]
By CRU Analyst Diego Giangreco, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, March 16 Brazilian distributor sheet prices fell month on month in March due to weak demand, while mills increased their prices in February or stopped giving discounts to match the trends in the international markets. Before the invasion of Ukraine, we were expecting a downward trend in […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins, part of CRU’s steel series, March 14. The EU announced it will “prohibit the import of key goods in the iron and steel sector from the Russian Federation.” We do not yet have details of what goods these are, but we can look at trade flows between the two […]
U.S. apparent steel supply levels slipped 1% from December to January, down 120,000 net tons to 9.36 million tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Recall that just last September, the market saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years (9.92 million tons). Apparent […]
U.S. steel exports rose 6% in January to 691,000 net tons, a partial recovery following December’s 10% drop, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce data. While the last few months have seen declining export levels, the 12-month moving average through January has reached a 34-month high. January exports are 3% higher than levels […]
Total mill shipments of steel products fell in January to 8.153 million tons, a 9.4% decline from December’s 8.995 million tons, 2021’s strongest monthly performance. Apparent supply also fell in January, down 7.6% versus the prior month, and unable to keep the upward trajectory seen during the final quarter of 2021. This analysis is based on steel […]
By CRU Research Analyst Christopher Dix and Analysts Diego Giangreco and Tiago Vespoli, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, March 10 Pig iron prices have increased following disruption to CIS supply. The global pig iron market is short of supply as Russian exports are difficult to replace. Black Sea freight options are now very limited, […]
By CRU Analyst Chris Bandman, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, March 16 The war in Ukraine is having widespread and deleterious effects on the global steel markets, but no one region has been more heavily affected than Europe. Steel prices in the region have soared to unseen heights and continue to rise on a daily basis. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group We digress from the woes of aluminum supply this week to comment on the LME nickel market, which has redefined volatility with a capital “V.” LME nickel has exploded due to a massive Chinese speculative position amidst Russian uncertainty. Nickel fundamentals have been tightening for some time. In 2020, […]
In his remarks during Wednesday’s Community Chat, Johnny Sjöström, the top executive at SSAB Special Steels, suggested that the fighting in Ukraine will make nations more gun-shy about becoming too dependent on their foreign trading partners. Nations in Europe and many other parts of the world are scrambling to maintain production without the exports of […]