Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization, December 2013. Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 101.76 for December; this was the first month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average (3MMA) at 101.21 was […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
The most significant observation about housing permits and starts in 2013 was how the growth rate of both single and multi-family slowed progressively during the year. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the year-over-year growth rate of single family declined from 29.6 percent in March to 10.8 percent in December as multi-family declined from […]
The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning and is published by McGraw Hill Construction. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any reading above 100, established for year 2000, indicates growth in construction […]
Canadian building permits declined in November to 18,173, falling 3.6 percent from October. The value of permits issued dropped 6.7 percent to $6.8 billion after gaining 8 percent the previous month. Permit values have been an upward trend with eight monthly increases in 2013. In the residential sector, the total value of permits declined 7.6 […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on December 28, the same as on November […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed year-over-year gains of 13.6 percent in October, according to data released December 31, 2013—the largest gain since Feb. 2006. The monthly gain for October 2013 for the 10-city and 20-city composites was 0.2 percent. In the twenty city composite, eighteen cities posted lower monthly rates in October than September […]
Finally the first data on housing starts since August! Total starts in November shot up to 1,091,000, (annualized), the highest since February 2008. Both single and multi family starts were the strongest since H1 2008. The three month moving average of starts was also very encouraging. At the present rate of increase, single family could […]
Housing starts jumped 22.7 percent in November to 1,091,000, well above an annual revised October estimate of 889,000 for October and the highest level in six years. The rate for single family housing starts leapt 20.8 percent to 727,000 while the rate for multi-family units rose 26.8 percent to 354,000. The report by the Commerce […]
Steel Dynamics issued its fourth quarter 2013 guidance on Tuesday reporting earnings in the range of $0.21 to $0.25 per diluted share, below analyst estimates ranging from $0.26 to $0.31. SDI announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per share. Earnings are expected to be comparable to those of third quarter. Higher steel pricing is […]
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says builder confidence in the new single-family home market is improving. The NAHB Index rose four points to a reading of 58 in December. The reading has been above 50 for seven months and is up 11 points year-over-year. “The recent spike in mortgage interest rates has not […]
The Canadian housing market is in for an “exceptionally healthy” year in 2014 according to a forecast by real estate leader Re/Max, yet concerns of a “housing bubble” continue to surface. A surging housing market and high consumer debt has been aided by low interest rates intended to spur economic recovery. Canadian household debt is […]
The other day Steel Market Update wrote an article about steel buyers anticipating a flat rolled steel price increase announcement out of the domestic mills prior to the end of the year. Not everyone is a believer that will occur and we got several emails and phone calls pointing out short lead times at a […]
Commerce Department data through October 2013. Focus on private construction. The Commerce Department compiles their information based on the source of financing. These categories are, private, state + local and federal. There are a huge number of sub categories in the private and state + local construction expenditure categories, not so many in federal where […]
Net job creation in November 2013 was 203,000 of which 159,000 were service providing and 44,000 were goods producing. This was the best goods producing result since February this year. Since February 2010, manufacturing has added 554,000 jobs and construction 329,000. In November the private sector added 196,000 jobs and government added 7,000. Of the […]
Each month Steel market Update publishes a table of 38 indicators that we believe captures the essence of the steel market and its drivers. Six of these indicators deal with construction which we believe consumes about 22 percent of all steel products in the US at present. Table 1 shows the construction section of the […]
New residential sales in October soared 25.4 percent above the revised September rate of 354,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000. In comparison, the October 2012 annual estimate was 365,000, a 21.6 percent increase year-over-year. The surge beat economist expectations ranging from 425,000 to 429,000 sales for the period. The median sales price […]
In November consumer confidence declined for the third consecutive month. This was entirely due to the expectations component of the index. On a three month moving average basis the news looks better (Figure 1). On this basis the present situation component has been little changed for four months but expectations have taken a dive, probably […]
The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 11.2 percent year-over-year for its highest level since 2006, according to data compiled through September 2013. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the third quarter index rose 3.2 percent. The index is based on the annual returns of 10-City and 20-City Composites. Twelve of the 20 cities posted […]
Existing home sales fell in October but low inventory continues to drive home prices upward said the National Association of Realtors in their November report. Existing housing inventory stood at 2.13 million homes at the end of October—a drop of 1.8 percent from last month. Home sales fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual […]
Both industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 99.98 for October, down by 0.14 from September. This index is based on the July 2007 level being defined as 100. The three month moving average, (3MMA) accelerated to a […]
Our existing website is about as basic as one can get when it comes to housing our pricing and other data. The existing site has no ability to provide data in a graphic form and our tables are cumbersome and pretty low-tech. This is not the image we want to project as we build toward […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of 73 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey preamble was as follows. “The October 2013 […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United States […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
Automotive production, sales and inventory in NAFTA through September 2013 Based on Ward’s automotive reports, total light vehicle, (LV) production was 1,390,175 units in September, down by 3.3 percent from August. Autos were down by 5.1 percent and light trucks by 1.8 percent. A better measure of direction is the three month rolling average of […]
New home sales rose by 7.9 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 421,000 from the revised July rate of 390,000 (from an earlier estimate of 394,000) according to the U.S Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were slightly below expectations of 425,000 for August, showing weakness compared […]