The big question entering 2022 is how fast, and how far, steel prices will decline. As Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners said during our Community Chat this week, “the trajectory for 2022 will depend on the pace of destocking, the new capacity ramping up and demand.” Steel Market Update’s latest survey data offers some […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz Tomorrow in Geneva, the U.S., Russia and Ukraine will start talks that could defuse, or not, the threat of war in Europe. Of course, a war has been going on between Russia and Ukraine for a while. In 2013, Viktor Yanukovich, then Ukraine’s president, rejected an agreement that would have […]
By CRU Research Analyst James Mills and Multi Commodity Analyst Alex Christopher, Jan. 6 The synchronized rise in commodity prices in 2021 prompted some market commentators to speculate the beginnings of a “supercycle.” At CRU, we are more cautious. In the past year, commodity prices have been more volatile than in the preceding years, with […]
Final Census data shows that steel imports in November rose 15% month-over-month to 3.15 million net tons, not far from September’s 28-month high of 3.26 million tons. December import licenses through Jan. 6 are just shy of 3.00 million tons, a 5% decline from November but up 9% compared to October. Total finished steel imports were nearly 2.60 million tons in […]
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) has started up the hot end of its $1.9 billion steel mill in Sinton, Texas, according to sources familiar with the matter. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker has melted a limited number of heats and rolled a limited number of coils – standard practice for a new mill, they said. SDI […]
Even after a 20% decline in U.S. hot rolled coil prices over the past four months, imports still offer buyers a tempting price advantage with potential discounts of 31-38%, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price comparison. Foreign hot rolled steel prices are now theoretically $483-583 per ton cheaper than domestic steel, […]
Steel prices declined for the fourth consecutive month in December, following a year-long streak of continuous price increases. Hot-rolled coil prices declined $130 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,600 per ton ($80.00 per cwt) as of Tuesday, Dec. 21 (SMU did not published updated prices on Dec. 28). The SMU Price Momentum […]
Total steel imports into the United States jumped by nearly 45% in the first 11 months of 2021, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute, based on preliminary Census data through November. Imports for the year to date totaled 29.7 million net tons of steel, up 44.6% versus the same period in 2020, including 21.6 […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz It’s a new year and a new start on many things. COVID does not appear to be one of them, but China relations may be. At the beginning of 2020, China and the U.S. agreed to settle some of their trade differences by inking a deal that reduced some U.S. […]
U.S. President Joe Biden has officially implemented a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) that will ease Section 232 restrictions on steel from the European Union. “I have determined that specified volumes of eligible steel … imports from the EU will no longer threaten to impair the national security,” Biden wrote in a presidential proclamation. The president did […]
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Tonight’s issue will be the final one for this year. We will pick up publishing our newsletters again on Tuesday, Jan. 4. The first thing I want to do tonight is to thank every one of our members for their support over this past year. In light of the […]
Welcome back to those who took an extra day or two off after the New Year. This is my first article of the year as Michael and Tim continue to absorb more of my workload. For those of you who did not view or listen in on the SMU Community Chat we hosted yesterday with […]
As the upward slope of the green bars in the charts below clearly illustrate, the bargaining position in steel price negotiations has been steadily shifting in favor of steel buyers for the past three months. Since September 2020, it had been a seller’s market, with steel in short supply. Until lately, the mills have had […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual 2.3% rate in the third quarter, up from the prior estimate of 2.1% but still at the slowest pace in more than a […]
First the takeaway: Don’t overthink it on the way down. Prices are falling, like it or not. The good thing, demand is still good – so don’t let falling prices ruin your holidays. Now, let’s overthink it a little. We’ve seen some chunky declines in recent weeks: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell $70 per ton […]
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week – our last of 2021 prior to the holiday break – shows the benchmark price for hot rolled finishing the year around $1,600 per ton ($80/cwt). That’s down another $70 per ton from last week and a total decline of $355 or 18% since peaking at […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Legislation passed Dec. 16 by the Senate and now on its way to the White House will all but ban imports connected at any point in the supply chain to materials from China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. However well justified by human rights, this ban will be a challenge for […]
It’s not just domestic steel prices that are falling rapidly, so too are prices abroad. Case in point: South Korean steelmaker Hyundai. Its latest offer for hot-rolled coil for February-March shipment to the West Coast is $1,450 per ton DDP to Los Angeles-area ports. That’s down significantly from prior offers of $1,600-1,640 per ton, according […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, Dec. 15 Seasonal pressures are starting to temporarily slow demand for some steel products. For sheet, this weakness is adding to a monumental shift in supply fundamentals. For other products, an unseasonably warm start to December has allowed construction demand to remain stronger than normal. […]
By Philip Bell, President, Steel Manufacturers Association As we approach the holidays, there are some who believe that a swift Section 232 deal with Japan is essential. Some also believe a Japanese deal should be equivalent to the deal reached with the European Union this October. The notion of a Jan. 1, 2022, deal deadline […]
Apparent steel supply remained high in October at 9.86 million net tons, down just 0.6% from September, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Recall that in September we saw the highest supply level in more than six years, going back to January 2015 when supply surpassed 10 million tons. October […]
Flat Rolled = 57.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 60.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories rose again in November, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of November, service centers carried 57.1 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, compared to 56.7 shipping days […]
Steel prices fell hard again this week. While the absolute numbers – down $60 per ton ($3 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil – might appear shocking at first glance, one could make the case that we’re being conservative. The development shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those who lived through past ups and downs. […]
Steel sheet prices fell again this week as mills continued reducing prices on shorter lead times and increased competition from both imports and other domestic producers. Published lead times are as low as 3-4 weeks for hot-rolled coil, for example, and sources reported orders being processed early. Some said mill offers declined substantially over the […]
Backlogs at the nation’s ports are improving, but it probably won’t be until mid-2022 before the bottlenecks clear and shipments of steel and other imports begin to return to normal. “I think it will get better by the middle of next year,” predicted Doug Wray, vice president commercial for Ports America, who will be a […]
On Friday, the Labor Department announced the inflation rate for November. At 0.8%, it was a tick lower than the October inflation rate of 0.9%. But most observers paid more attention to the annual rate of inflation. At 6.8% compared to prices one year ago, the inflation rate was the highest it’s been since 1982. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The massing of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine has raised tensions to a high level on the political scene. It forces us to take another look at the repercussions of new sanctions on the Russian state should Putin decide to invade. 2018 Repeated? In March 2018, sanctions […]
Imports of less-expensive sheet and plate products continue to make their way into the U.S. market, a steady increase over the past six months as buyers continue to seek relief from record-high steel prices in the U.S. October Commerce Department data show imports’ shares of the U.S. flat products markets at their highest levels in the past […]
Total mill shipments of steel products edged up 1.4% in October to 8.619 million tons, following a 12.2% fall the month prior. Apparent supply slipped for the second straight month in October, down 2.2% on top of a 6.9% decline in September. October’s contraction marks the first month-on-month decrease in steel supply since apparent supply fell […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]