One of the items Steel Market Update is watching closely is steel mill lead times. This is especially true after price increases have been announced. Typically, we see lead times move out (extend) after a price announcement has been made. This is due to the rush to get orders quoted prior to the increase announcement […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early November flat rolled steel market survey this week. We invited approximately 600 companies to participate in the process. Of those participating 44 percent were manufacturing companies and 44 percent were steel service centers. The balance of the respondents was comprised of 6 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel […]
AK Steel, US Steel, Nucor (verbal) and ArcelorMittal all made spot price adjustments this past week. A number of the smaller mills are holding back or have lead times out into 2015 and their order books are closed. Steel Market Update Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward Neutral meaning prices could be in transition […]
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported net earnings of $34.9 million for its fourth quarter ending August 31, 2014. Net sales increased 12 percent year over year to $1.9 billion. For the full fiscal year 2014, net earnings were 115.6 million on net sales of 7 billion. In comparison, FY 2013 net earnings were 77.3 million […]
I adjusted the SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral in recognition of the attempt by the domestic steel mills to reverse the price trend and move prices higher. A Neutral indicator means prices could move in either direction (or remain stable) over the next 30 days. I understand two mills have made very […]
There has been a flurry of activity as buyers and sellers of steel anticipate a possible price increase announcement (which came late this afternoon in the form of a $20 increase out of AK Steel). Buyers reported the domestic mills as being aggressive this week and we saw our price averages negatively impacted as prices […]
This article was written just prior to the AK Steel announcement of a $20 per ton price increase which we received after 5 PM this afternoon. Steel Market Update reported in a recent issue (SMU Oct. 23rd) recently that this is the time of the year that the domestic steel mills traditionally move to stem […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our mid-October flat rolled steel market survey this week. Based on the results of that survey, we found lead times essentially unchanged from one week ago and basically the same as one year ago. Hot rolled averages 4.2 weeks, cold rolled 6.09 weeks, galvanized 6.11 weeks and Galvalume 6.58 weeks. […]
Steel Market Update is hearing the rumors about the potential for a new flat rolled steel price increase. The rumors are mostly coming from the service center and financial community. But, our readers, if paying attention, should not be surprised by the rumors and the real possibility that the mills will attempt to cut their […]
Based on the analysis of the responses we received so far this week on our survey coupled with channel checks we found flat rolled steel prices slipped on cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume while remaining the same on hot rolled. We found that it is too early to see if the termination of the Russian […]
Although we heard from a number of buyers mixed messages regarding the spot markets. Some buyers are seeing the market as continuing to weaken while others feel the mills have dug in their heals and prices are firm (at least in their region of the country). We have heard rumors of one, or more, mills […]
SMU was reading a blog post put up by Metal Miner this morning regarding the consolidation of the steel industry. The main premise of the guest article from James May of Steel-Insight out of Canada, was 81 percent of the hot rolled production in the United States and Canada is controlled by four companies: ArcelorMittal, […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
On Monday of this week, SMU began our early October flat rolled steel market survey. Invitations were sent to approximately 600 companies across the United States and Canada. The survey was concluded earlier today (Thursday). One of the key focus areas for the survey is to discover if there are any changes in lead times […]
We are starting to see continuous movement in flat rolled steel prices – especially on hot rolled coil which was down another $5 per ton this week. Steel Market Update is also starting to gather price points beyond the range of “slippage” and we have therefore adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower […]
Our Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” since the last day of June 2014. We are now entering our 4th month and hot rolled steel prices have barely budged from the center line (OK, there have been some mild gyrations but no clear cut path up or down during the past three months). […]
Steel Market Update spent the last two days canvassing end users and service centers to see where flat rolled steel prices are at the moment and where they might be heading from here. We heard from many service centers and end users that business conditions and demand for their products are doing quite well. We […]
From the years 1997 through 2007 Steel Market Update’s founder and publisher, John Packard, was representing Winner Steel, a domestic conversion mill operating out of Sharon, Pennsylvania and now part of the NLMK USA group. He shares some of his old notes on galvanized pricing which ultimately lead to the beginnings of Steel Market Update […]
Everyone continues to watch for how the consolidation of the Severstal NA assets (Dearborn and Columbus steel mills) will impact the flat rolled steel markets. Early indications are for shorter lead times out of the SDI Columbus facility and Dearborn lead times are shorter than the Middletown and Ashland plants for AK Steel. But, it […]
On Wednesday, Steel Market Update (SMU) participated in a monthly steel conference call hosted by the Heating, Air-conditioning , Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). HARDI wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and coils to the mechanical contractors involved in residential, multi-family and commercial construction segments of the construction industry. Consolidation was the first topic of discussion with AK Steel […]
Steel buyers think the domestic mills are riding high at today’s prices. Iron ore prices are dropping, coking coal is down and scrap has been treading water and the word is it may dip a bit as we enter the month of October. Steel buyers think the mills are floating on the top of the […]
The following article was originally published in our Premium edition of Steel Market Update last week after the MSCI shipment and inventory data was released. Service Center Apparent Inventory Deficit/Excess is one of the proprietary products available for our Premium Level customers. We thought our Executive customers might be interested in how our forecast did […]
Based on the results from our most recent Steel Market Update steel market analysis, flat rolled steel mill lead times, the number of weeks needed to produce and ship a new order, remained above 2013 levels on all products. SMU conducted one of our twice monthly steel market surveys this past week. During the process […]
Steel Market Update nailed (in our opinion) last month’s forecast for August. We projected that the -193,000 tons deficit from the end of July (based on our proprietary formula for what a balanced flat rolled inventory level should be for the U.S. service centers) would be eliminated and move into a very small excess situation. […]
Spot prices remained stable this week as steel buyers wait to see how the absorption of Severstal by AK Steel and Steel Dynamics will affect the marketplace. It is anticipated that it could take 3-4 weeks before we get a clear indication as to how the commercial departments for each mill will integrate the former […]
As we look at our price indices for the week of September 8th we want to take a moment to advise our galvanized customers that we are revising our .060 G90 benchmark index to account for the change in zinc coating extras. After reviewing the changes made by the domestic steel mills we have decided […]
Flat rolled steel mill Lead times remained relatively stable compared to those reported during the middle of August. However, when compared to the lead times reported in early September 2013 we are finding the latest lead times to be slightly extended. Hot rolled lead times are averaging 4.37 weeks based on the responses received in […]
Flat rolled steel prices remained holiday bound and buyers are waiting to see if there is any movement based on the latest lead times and needs that the domestic mills might have. With the combination of the Labor Day holiday on Monday of this week, coupled with inventories starting to rise at service centers (according […]
Based on our conversations with steel buyers and analysis of the data we received from steel mills, service centers and end users, we saw some slippage in flat rolled steel prices this week. Not enough to change our position (Neutral) on the market. But, there was enough to make us sit up and take notice. […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Fifth District in August, according to the survey of manufacturing activity conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 12 for its highest reading since March 2011. Shipments gained 7 points advancing to 10 while new orders gained 8 points registering 13. Employment […]