Steel Market Update has been following the Armada Corporate Intelligence economists since we first heard Dr. Chris Kuehl present at a conference we attended earlier this year. We were so impressed with both Dr. Kuehl’s (pronounced Keel) presentation skills and their newsletter that we invited Dr. Kuehl to be a keynote speaker at this year’s […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI made a modest uptick to 52.2 in May after dropping to a six month low of 51.9 in April. Faster expansion rates were seen in production, new orders and orders for new exports. Overall improvement, however, remains modest with the average rate of increase in business conditions lower than […]
For those of you who are paying attention to our website you might have noticed we added a new sub-menu under the Resources tab. The new menu is called “The Truth About Selling Steel” and we have attempted to split out those articles associated with sales from our Steel Buyers Basics series of articles many […]
Economic indicators were mostly positive in May. Housing starts and sales improved while the ABI dropped. Respondents to the various economic surveys were generally upbeat about future economic and business conditions. Steel buyers looked for more of the same activity for the next six months. The abbreviated breakdown follows. New home sales bounced back in […]
A flurry of promotions has elevated the positions of five executives at AK Steel, effective May 30, 2014. David C. Horn has been named Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer, and Secretary. Mr. Horn was previously the company’s Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary and will continue to be responsible for all […]
Steel imports to the U.S. totaled 3.7 million net tons according to preliminary data from the US Census Bureau but the reaction to this data depends on one’s point of view. The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) both came out with reports on April imports, but […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-May flat rolled steel market analysis. We thought it would be interesting to compare what our respondents were thinking last week compared to the beginning of May regarding where hot rolled coil spot prices might be by the beginning of June. What our survey discovered was our respondents […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry, saw new orders increase for the fourth consecutive month in April ,continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession. Both March and April were above trend, (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased in both March and April, (Figure 2). […]
Welcome back to those who have returned to your offices for the next big summer push. I spent a portion of my day today trying to get a sense of how business conditions are for those with whom I was speaking. With the exception of one service center located on the East Coast who told […]
Records seem to be breaking just about every time we measure how flat rolled steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment. There has been a growing optimism within the steel community as business conditions improve for most market segments. This optimism is reported in our […]
Steel mill lead times remained extended (or from a mill perspective, at reasonable levels) on all products. Benchmark hot rolled lead times averaged 4.91 weeks which is essentially unchanged from the 5.00 weeks reported at the beginning of May. Last year at this time HRC lead times averaged 3.03 weeks. We are running approximately 2 […]
Lead times are reported as being relatively stable compared to two weeks ago, but down slightly from the cycle highs which were achieved within the past two months. Our manufacturing and service center respondents reported the domestic steel mills as becoming more flexible in their flat rolled steel price negotiations. Fifty percent of the manufacturing […]
Lead times are reported as being relatively stable compared to two weeks ago, but down slightly from the cycle highs which were achieved within the past two months. Our manufacturing and service center respondents reported the domestic steel mills as becoming more flexible in their flat rolled steel price negotiations. Fifty percent of the manufacturing […]
Demand is continuing to improve according to participants in our Steel Market Update (SMU) mid-May Steel Market Survey. Just over half of our respondents, 50.49 percent, said steel demand is improving, up from 47 percent in mid-April and less than one quarter in mid-March. This month we polled a group consisting mainly of manufacturing companies […]
A reminder that Steel Market Update will not publish this Sunday evening due to the Memorial Day Weekend Holiday here in the United States. We will publish our next steel newsletter on Tuesday. We wish everyone in the United States a safe, healthy and happy holiday weekend. Our September 3 & 4th Forecasting & Steel […]
It is well known that Dan DiMicco, the former CEO of Nucor Steel, has been an advocate of holding the Chinese steel mills to tougher standards. He has been opposed to imports of Chinese steel into the United States since most of the industry is government controlled and, in his opinion, unfairly traded. In light […]
Production in April on a tons/day basis was another all-time high at 4.574 million tonnes. The three month moving average (3MMA) of production in April was at an annual rate of 1.619 billion tonnes with a capacity utilization of 78.5 percent, also a 3MMA, (Figure 1). Capacity is now 2.076 billion tonnes. Table 1 shows […]
Both Industrial Production (IP) and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 102.744 for April, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 102.83. This was the fifth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has […]
The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) and the law firm of Stewart and Stewart recently released its publication “Surging Steel Imports Put Up to Half a Million U.S. Jobs at Risk.” The publication was released in support of the domestic steel industry and their unions and contends that unfairly traded imports are costing the U.S. jobs […]
Metalforming companies are predicting little change in economic conditions in the next three months, according to data from the May 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Incoming orders are also expected to remain relatively unchanged during the period. Current daily shipping levels declined in May compared to three months ago according to those […]
Indicators in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia May 2014 Business Outlook Survey were positive for the third consecutive month indicting manufacturing activity continues to expand in the Third District. The general activity index dropped slightly from 16.6 in April to 15.4 in May. New orders and current shipments decreased by 4 and 9 points, […]
Manufacturing conditions improved significantly in May according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index leapt 18 points to 19.0, up from a weak reading of 1.3 in April and at its highest level in four years. New orders and shipments rose from […]
The Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, March 2014 was just released indicating a 0.4 percent improvement in manufacturing sales in March. Higher sales were seen in food, machinery and plastics & rubber, but were offset by declines in paper, petroleum and coal products. Two thirds of the manufacturing sector had increased sales in March with […]
Flat rolled steel buyers and sellers of steel have split personalities–believing the domestic steel mills will officially raise prices to the $700 level on hot rolled while at the same time believing that prices will essentially trend sideways from here between now and the first of June. Last week Steel Market Update conducted our early […]
There will be a lot of news in the media today and tomorrow regarding foreign steel imports and their damage to the U.S. economy. We are seeing demonstrations across the country by union workers trying to influence policy and, particularly, the final determination of the OCTG dumping suits. Politicians are involved with Senator Sherrod Brown […]
I am getting excited by the progress we are making on our September Steel Summit conference. I have been talking to as many manufacturing companies, service centers, steel mills and trading companies as we strive to put on an exceptional program with quality speakers who will provide valuable content. Easy to say, not so easy […]
For the first time since Steel Market Update began surveying the flat rolled steel industry, a majority of our respondents are reporting demand as “improving.” As you can see by the timeline shown in the graphic below, the optimistic trend for demand growth began to pick up steam during late 1st Quarter 2014 and momentum […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
More than 200 Ohio steel workers and supporters gathered at a rally outside US Steel Lorain Tubular Operations on May 5 to urge the federal government to protect the Northeast Ohio steel industry from unfair foreign competition. “Northeast Ohio’s steelmakers and workers can compete against anyone in the world—when given access to a level playing […]
Steel buyers in the April Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain the same for the next six months. Higher orders are anticipated during the next three months but current order levels are still weaker than buyers would like. Right now at present production rates and with […]