The “new normal” is to reinvent oneself or the way you will do business going forward. As many of you are aware, I am no spring chicken. Yet I refuse to live in the past. I learned (the hard way – through unexpected career changes) that I needed to constantly keep myself relevant to my […]
International steelmaker ArcelorMittal was hit particularly hard by the pandemic, dealing with closures and economic recessions across the globe. The company reported a loss of $1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2020 and expects the remainder of the year to be challenging. “There are still too many uncertainties to accurately predict what the rest […]
Ferrous scrap prices for May have settled up $30/GT for shredded and up $40-50/GT for busheling as the coronavirus shutdowns have disrupted scrap generation and collection, resulting in extremely tight supplies. Higher scrap prices may lend support to the higher finished steel prices announced by the mills this week. The tight supply is a more […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel A large drop in the HR index used to settle the CME HR contract last week helped push April to settle […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Many are still discussing what type of recession will ensue following the Covid-19 pandemic. Will it be U-, V- or L-shaped? Different people may refer to the same shape to mean different outcomes. To bring clarity to this issue, this insight sets out […]
Dr. Chris Kuehl is the Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence. He provides forecasts and strategic guidance to a wide variety of corporate clients around the world. Kuehl has spoken at numerous SMU Steel Summit Conferences where his free-wheeling style both informed and entertained. On Wednesday, May 13, Dr. Kuehl will participate in one of […]
Buyers of flat rolled and plate steels provided insights into the market to Steel Market Update throughout the day. On the flat rolled side, steel buyers seemed to be resigned to paying higher prices. Flat rolled price quotes are firming at the domestic mills, and the mills may well achieve their desired minimums of $500-$520 […]
Buyers of flat rolled and plate steels provided insights into the market to Steel Market Update throughout the day. On the flat rolled side, steel buyers seemed to be resigned to paying higher prices. Flat rolled price quotes are firming at the domestic mills, and the mills may well achieve their desired minimums of $500-$520 […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As the coronavirus lockdown enters its third month, some states are starting to reopen their economies. As of this writing, 23 states were partially reopening May 1. Every state is different, of course, and no state has reopened […]
Auto sales were expected to be low in April and predictions were correct. Edmunds estimates U.S. sales fell 36.6 percent from March and 52.5 percent compared to April 2019. “April auto sales took the biggest hit we’ve seen in decades,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of Insights. “These bleak figures aren’t just because consumers […]
The COVID-19 crisis devastated manufacturing across the globe in April. The pandemic laid low virtually all economies, plunging the J.P. Morgan Global PMI to 39.8 for the steepest contraction since the financial crisis of 2008/2009. China, although still in contraction, fared the best of the nations surveyed and helped to soften the downturn. Excluding China, […]
Having lived through the difficult month of April, steel buyers remain pessimistic about current business conditions, but more hopeful about the future. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their company’s current prospects for success, as well as their chances for success three to six months in the future. The Current Sentiment reading […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Lockdowns continued into April. They resulted in a fall in activity, particularly in the hospitality, entertainment and travel sectors. Using estimates of the loss of output by sector, we find that one month of lockdown lowers the […]
The ISM Report on Business dropped 7.6 percentage points to a PMI reading of 41.5 in April, indicating a sharp contraction of economic activity in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the overall economy contracted for the first time in 131 consecutive months. “Comments from the panel were strongly negative (three negative comments for every one positive […]
“Vacation: An extended period of recreating, especially one spent away from home or traveling.” Last week I took “vacation” time off, and unlike the definition above I did little recreating, rarely strayed from home, and did no traveling. How restful is that? The big news from last week was an apparent “firming” of steel prices. […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steels declined sharply in April. Lead times ranged from a half-week to a full week shorter at the end of the month than they did at the beginning, depending on the product, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began canvassing the markets as we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends suveys. The vast majority of the responses were received early in the week and the results of those responses are presented below. However, SMU continued to speak directly to both […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The USMCA will take effect on July 1 of this year, despite calls to push out its implementation due to the economic crisis from the coronavirus. USMCA repeals and replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement, which took […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to its lowest level since the recession in March 2009. The April PMI plummeted 12.4 points to 35.4, said MNI Indicators. New orders and production recorded the steepest declines, falling 21 points and 19 points, respectively. The order backlogs index eased 7.4 percent after reporting gains in February and March. […]
“The scrap market is almost certainly going to go sideways if not higher in May due to the extreme supply squeeze we have seen this month,” said CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley. Ferrous scrap prices weakened for much of the first quarter, punctuated by a $30-50 per ton decrease in April. But May scrap prices […]
COVID-19-related shutdowns and project cancellations caused construction employment in March to decline in 99 out of 348 metro areas year-over-year, said the Associated General Contractors of America in an analysis of government data. In an April 20-23 survey conducted by AGC, 68 percent of construction firms reported projects canceled or delayed in the past two […]
John Packard is taking some time off. May could be a pivotal month for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. No reasonable person believes we will have the virus crisis behind us, but we should at least have more clarity on what lies ahead. States, to one degree or another, are loosening their restrictions […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson The U.S. plate market has, up to this point, seen prices fall on a slow downward trend. Plate has not been as exposed to the automotive-led manufacturing shutdown, which had allowed prices to only slowly fall by $61 /s.ton since the late January cycle peak. Current prices, though, reflect […]
Durable goods orders plummeted 14.4 percent in March to $213.2 billion, said the U.S. Census Bureau in its latest report. The decrease followed three consecutive months of increase and was the largest monthly decline since August 2014. Transportation equipment led the decrease in March falling 41 percent to $51.2 billion. Commercial aircraft and parts plunged […]
John Packard is taking some time off… We hope you are benefiting from our series of SMU Community Chats. The idea is to help us all feel connected by getting together once a week for a short visit with an industry expert—and in a way with each other. It’s a chance to learn something valuable […]
Companies are being affected to varying degrees by the coronavirus depending on their market and geography, so it’s no surprise their opinions range widely on how long it will take business to return to pre-COVID levels. Some hope for activity to rebound as soon as this summer, while others fear it won’t be until next […]
Automakers are facing numerous challenges as they prepare to reopen manufacturing impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Already facing lower sales this year, the pandemic has shut down vehicle production and dealer sales, disrupted supply chains and drained finances for U.S. vehicle manufacturers, with troubling implications for their steel suppliers. Bernard Swiecki, senior automotive analyst at […]
What comes first, the chicken or the egg? We all want our businesses to return to “normal.” We want all employees back to work, getting paychecks, buying products, and living happy, healthy lives. On Wednesday, we hosted one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. Our featured speaker was Bernard Swiecki of the Center for Automotive […]
What comes first, the chicken or the egg? We all want our businesses to return to “normal.” We want all employees back to work, getting paychecks, buying products, and living happy, healthy lives. On Wednesday, we hosted one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. Our featured speaker was Bernard Swiecki of the Center for Automotive […]