Steel Market Update has to admit 2019 has been an unusual year as we have seen two “dead cat bounces” already and we may be about to live through a third in the coming weeks. Why do we believe flat rolled prices are about to reverse course? Because of the data we have been gathering […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Demand for sheet products spiked to over five million tons in August for the first time since August last year, though flat rolled demand remains tepid. Construction expenditures are softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment […]
Business activity in New York State grew slightly in October but was generally sluggish. The October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index gained two points to register 4.0. The new orders index was unchanged at 3.5, indicating a slight Improvement. Shipments rose 7 points to 13.0 after falling to a three-year low last month. Unfilled […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week reveals that many buyers are leaning pessimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter. The majority responding to SMU’s questionnaire expect demand to continue weakening, prices to continue declining and growth to remain flat into the fourth quarter and possibly beyond. Demand SMU asked: At […]
Negotiations continued between the United Auto Workers and General Motors on Saturday afternoon. On Friday, the UAW presented a counter to the proposal GM submitted on Monday. Recent comments by the union hint that a possible tentative agreement may be in the works. “A short time ago, today, Friday, Oct. 11, 2019, we counterproposed to […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores The North American sheet market has taken a turn for the worse. At a time when sheet demand and prices have already been stunted by a weaker trend of industrial growth and sheet demand, two recent events are only now starting to affect sheet prices: an on-going strike at […]
U.S. Steel unrolled a new operating model on Tuesday that is expected to deliver $200 million of annual fixed cost savings by 2022. The new model includes a realignment of the company’s leadership team. The changes will be effective Jan. 1, 2020, and closely follow the recently announced investment in Big River Steel. “Our enhanced […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for August, released Oct. 1, shows total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the months June, July and August, total construction declined for the first time since November 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Commerce data. At SMU, […]
Job creation in September continued at a lackluster pace and the details signal a slowdown in steel consumption. In September, 7,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 2,000 jobs. About 114,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government gained 22,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and […]
Census Bureau data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) are most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on […]
The rate of job creation in September slowed to 136,000, but the details of job cuts and job openings continue to be historically very positive, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in September declined to 136,000 from an upwardly revised 168,000 in […]
Lack of demand for ferrous scrap, especially in the Ohio Valley and Chicago market, forced prices down another $30-40/GT for October, on top of a similar decline in September, sources tell Steel Market Update. Scrap prices are their lowest in years, dropping eight out of the last 10 months. Shred prices today are around $215/GT, […]
Worthington Industries has acquired Heidtman Steel Products’ pickling and slitting facility in Cleveland. As part of the sale, the Cleveland operation under Worthington will continue to service Heidtman customers through a toll processing agreement. “Heidtman’s Cleveland operation is a great addition to our steel business, further expanding our value-added steel processing capacity,” said Worthington Industries […]
The United Auto Workers’ strike against General Motors is in its 23rd day. After the union rejected a counterproposal from GM on Sunday, UAW-GM Vice President Terry DIttes commented, “These negotiations have taken a turn for the worse.” “We, in this union, could not be more disappointed with General Motors,” he said, adding that the […]
SMU continues to pick up negative vibes through the analysis we currently are actively conducting on the flat rolled and plate steel markets. There is obviously something going on that is concerning buyers and sellers of steel. At the same time, one of the steel mills told me today that even though prices on their […]
The good news is that the Commerce Department has finally approved Priefert Manufacturing’s request to exclude one of its products from the Section 232 tariff. The bad news is that the company still may never see a refund of the $700,000 it has paid out in unfair duties. Priefert Manufacturing is a service center and […]
The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 47.2 for August indicating a decline in planning activity for nonresidential construction. The national score for new design contracts was also below the neutral point of 50 at 47.9, a rare occurrence for the two scores. Having both indexes in contraction means […]
EVRAZ NA President “Skip” Herald is the newest addition to the American Iron and Steel Institute Board of Directors. “Skip Herald has had an impressive career, and I am excited to welcome him to the AISI Board of Directors,” said AISI Chairman and AK Steel CEO Roger Newport. “Skip’s wealth of experience will be an […]
More than 80 percent of the steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update in the last 10 days believe steel prices will test the lows reached earlier this year. SMU’s current average hot rolled price is $525 a ton, just $5 above the $520 low hit in late June. Pointing to sketchy demand, some believe […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
September saw big downturns on both steel price momentum and steel buyers sentiment that aren’t readily evident in the monthly data (below) from Steel Market Update. SMU’s Price Momentum Index was pointing downward for the entire month of September. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel averaged $565 per ton for the month, down nearly […]
A new solar project in Pueblo, Colo., will bring the state one step closer to its goal of providing 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2050 and give EVRAZ Rocky Mountain Steel predictable electricity prices through 2041. The 240-megawatt Bighorn Solar project will be built, owned and operated by Lightsource BP on property owned by EVRAZ […]
The September Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed further decline of the manufacturing sector. ISM’s PMI edged down 1.3 points to 47.8 from the August reading of 49.1. “This is the lowest reading since June 2009, the last month of the Great Recession, when the index registered 46.3 percent,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of […]
The net situation changed little from August but the Treasury 10/2 yield spread became slightly positive on Sept. 27 and the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index suffered a serious setback on Sept. 15. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. […]
The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
From June through August, global steel production increased by 3.1 percent, but excluding China, growth declined by 2.1 percent with the result that China’s share reached another all-time high of 55.9 percent. We have a new perspective this month on global capacity. About a year ago, the World Steel Association stopped reporting global capacity utilization […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 3.3 points to 47.1 in September after seeing a brief rebound from contraction in August. The decline in the index released by ISM and MNI Indicators was lower than the 50+ reading expected by many economists. The September Chicago PMI, as the index is also known, marked the third contraction […]
Construction spending edged up 0.1 percent in August from July but declined from year-ago levels, with divergent trends in residential and nonresidential categories, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America of new federal spending data. Association officials said that many contractors in its recent survey report that staffing challenges are causing […]
Steel buyers report flat or declining demand and expect spot steel prices to test the lows reached earlier this year, according to the findings of Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week. The consensus view of the economy is more uncertain. Demand Nearly half of steel buyers responding to SMU’s questionnaire reported declining […]