![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/04/RMU-logo-300x157.png)
RMU: Prices set to rally in August amid tight supply, rising demand
The prices for the July market weren’t settled until July 8 and now we are approaching the formation of the August market.
The prices for the July market weren’t settled until July 8 and now we are approaching the formation of the August market.
Summer is here, and a familiar sentiment has hit the hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market. Prices continue to decline in both the spot market and the futures market, with expectations of sub-$800 prices for the remainder of the year.
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
Cleveland-Cliffs expects its acquisition of Canada’s Stelco to close later this year, which will help the the Cleveland-based steelmaker as a bottom to steel tags nears.
Nucor recording lower second quarter earnings on falling steel prices. And the Charlotte, N.C.-based predicted that profits would be lower still in the third quarter, primarily because of weaker results from its steel mills divisions.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
The United Kingdom and other countries are using the “green” label to subsidize bailouts of obsolete, inefficient, and excess capacity that should exit the market. US steelmakers have invested billions of dollars in technologies that curb greenhouse gas output. These investments have been market-based and led by EAF producers such as Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and CMC.
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]
Operating income from Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI) recycling operations clocked in higher in the second quarter than in the first on increasing volumes and despite lower realized pricing. Recycling operations brought in $32.1 million, an increase over $22.6 million in Q1, but lower than the $40.3 million last year, the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based company said […]
The recently announced acquisition of Stelco by Cleveland-Cliffs (Cliffs), priced at nearly three times book value, provides a great price for Stelco shareholders. And various synergies will likely leave Cliffs with tremendous runway for further growth in this deal. Cliffs expects to close this deal in 2024 Q4 upon government approval. This approval is expected but not a given.
A roundup of aluminum news from CRU.
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
The CME steel futures complex saw a slight decrease in activity from levels seen at the end of June. This has coincided with a notable decline in flat prices for the nearby futures contract, now August HRC, which is lower by $81 per short ton (st) since last writing on June 13. It settled at $672/st on July 17.
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices narrowed for the third consecutive month, hitting a level not seen since 2020, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell to $640 per short ton (st) on average on Tuesday. That’s down $10/st from last week and marks the lowest point for HR prices since December 2022, according to our pricing archives. SMU’s HR price is now $5/ton below 2023’s low of $645/st, which occurred against the backdrop of a United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike.
Scrap prices came in mostly sideways in July, with prime scrap prices edging down while shredded and HMS tags ticked up slightly, scrap sources told SMU. They believe a bottom has been reached in the market.
There are a lot of rumors swirling around the steel market over the last couple of weeks. Chief among them was that we might see a price hike after Independence Day. Another concerns a key detail in the new Section 232 agreement with Mexico. Namely, steel imported from Brazil into Mexico. Of particular interest is its potential implication for slabs imported from Brazil, rolled in Mexico, and then exported to the US.
The ferrous scrap export market on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America has maintained its pricing for several months despite continuing declines in domestic markets.
Flat-rolled steel prices have been largely falling since the beginning of the year. Even after a slight bump in early April when mills tried to halt the downtrend, the decrease resumed.
US sheet prices saw a similar pattern this week, customary for much of the year – new week, lower prices. Domestic tags moved lower this week, aligning with the typically slower summer period – but maybe a further indication of dwindling demand.
First off, we hope everyone had a safe and happy July 4th holiday, with fireworks seen and BBQs attended. Many parts of the country are quite toasty at the moment, signaling that, yes, summer has indeed arrived. And looking at our most recent survey results, the summer doldrums have arrived as well.
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”
North America has one of the most robust steel scrap markets in the world. The continent has a long history of steel production, significant imports of steel and steel-containing products, and mature steel consumption. Due to this, the reservoir of scrap available to be recycled each year in the US and other North American markets is substantial and growing.
After celebrating the July 4th holiday, let’s have a look back at the first half of 2024.
Radius Recycling continued to bleed red in its most recent quarterly report as it negotiated persistently challenging conditions in the recycled metals market.
Most longs prices in the US were unchanged this month, except for rebar, which declined by $1.50/cwt ($30/short ton) m/m. While end-use demand is stable, inventories are well-stocked, keeping purchases limited. Domestic availability is sufficient to meet current demand, hindering the appetite for imported material. Meanwhile, prices for scrap remained under pressure in June, with […]
Looking out over the American economy, Triple-S Steel Holdings CEO Gary Stein believes what is required doesn’t fundamentally have to do with government policy. “Rather, it’s a mind shift.”
Sources contacted by RMU have delivered a bleak forecast for the market’s direction in July, potentially extending into August.