Last month, Steel Market Update forecast that June steel service center shipments of flat rolled steel would total 2,430,000 tons. The actual number, according to MSCI data, came in at 2,339,000 tons or 91,000 tons fewer than our forecast. The daily shipment rate for June, which is more accurate than keeping tabs on total month […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Now why did we go and do that? We have been stuck in a very tight trading range on most flat rolled steels since late April of this year. Benchmark hot rolled, which is used by most in the […]
Before the ink had dried on last month’s service center flat rolled inventory “Apparent Excess/Deficit” report and forecast we knew our forecast was being a bit too optimistic. This was pointed out to us in an email from a large service center who has been following our Apparent Excess since the beginning. “I read with […]
The steel industry has been preparing for a trade suit for well over a year. Those who buy steel, manufacturers, fabricators and steel service centers have had ample time to prepare for what many had been predicting as inevitable, a light flat rolled coated steel anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) suit. As we speak […]
Steel Market Update was analyzing data from our last flat rolled market survey just as the domestic mills began announcing price increases. We thought our readers might be interested in looking at the data with us and then guess as to whether the new price increases will “stick” or falter over time. In our opinion, […]
Last month Steel Market Update (SMU) forecast flat shipments for the month of April. We believed at that time that the U.S. flat rolled steel service centers would ship 108,600 tons per day or total flat rolled shipments of 2,389,200. According to the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI), which released shipment and inventory data for […]
As the publisher of Steel Market Update I get a lot of questions on a daily basis from readers and those who come across our website. Usually its about a piece of data or something having to do with one of our workshops. I got a question yesterday from someone who wanted to know what […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel market utilizing our proprietary questionnaire which is presented to approximately 600 companies for review. We receive well over 100 responses every time we canvass the market with the vast majority of respondents falling into either the manufacturing or service center/wholesaler […]
The American Institute for International Steel issued the following report on February 2015 steel imports into the United States. Imports, which declined in February compared to January, are 23 percent higher than at this time last year and one of the major reasons why service center inventories are taking so long to adjust. The higher […]
When it comes to the laws of supply and demand within the steel industry, many steel executives in their quarterly conference calls will reference steel service center inventories. As you look at the graphic below you can clearly see the trend change as steel service center inventories began to balloon in 4th Quarter 2014 and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
After negotiations were completed for February scrap pricing, the word being spread around the industry was to expect another drop in March, perhaps down $20 on most grades. However, the weather got brutal during the month and we are hearing that many dealers will not be able to complete deliveries on obsolete grades of ferrous […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
OK, I have been asked for my opinion as to what I think will happen to steel prices from this point. I have a sense that we may be entering a period of transition. A point where the price spreads between foreign and domestic are “reasonable” and the domestic steel industry can re-capture some of […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
As we listen to the domestic steel mills earnings conference calls, one of the items we focus on is their viewpoint regarding service center inventories. One year ago the domestic mills were touting the lack of inventory as being one of the drivers of orders which was keeping flat rolled steel prices high. That tune […]
Benchmark hot rolled coil prices dropped again this week as buyers struggled with an oversupplied HRC market due to high service center inventories, a continuation of high foreign imports and the collapse of the OCTG and line pipe markets due to weak oil prices. Couple those three items with more domestic supply than necessary for […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported steel distributor shipments and inventories on Monday. The MSCI reported U.S. shipments of all steel products totaled 3,135,700 tons during the month of December which was 6.3 percent higher than December 2013. The daily shipment rate was 142,500 tons per day. Total steel inventories (all products) were reported […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been dropping over the past few weeks and the wholesalers who service the mechanical contractors are concerned as the pace of the price decline quickens. Earlier today Steel Market Update participated in the HARDI sponsored galvanized steel conference call. HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International) wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and […]
The following is an overview of some of the key steel data collected by Steel Market Update during the month of December 2014. This is separate from our Key Market Indicators which was produced for our Premium level subscribers (although shared with all of our readers on Friday of this past week). Steel Market Update […]
Everyone wants to know how the steel industry did from our perspective over the calendar year 2014. We decided to take a look at the year using quarterly averages as a way of smoothing out the data and giving us a clearer picture of key data and commodity and steel pricing trends. As you can […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported total steel inventories of 9,195,700 tons. This represents an increase of 15.2 percent above last year and when taking the current shipment rate into consideration, MSCI reported inventories as being 33.1 percent higher than November 2013. The daily shipment rate dropped from 170,100 tons per day (all products) […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
Flat rolled steel prices began slipping once again as our benchmark hot rolled average broke through the $630 mark for the first time since the middle of March. The new average is now at the lowest level for the calendar year (tied with mid-March) and is poised to set a new low point for the […]
Flat rolled steel prices began to stabilize this past week after having peaked in the middle of August at $675 per ton (hot rolled) and then slowly sliding to a low of $630 per ton during the week ending November 1, 2014. The SMU HRC average actually rose slightly to $635 per ton this past […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early November flat rolled steel market survey this week. We invited approximately 600 companies to participate in the process. Of those participating 44 percent were manufacturing companies and 44 percent were steel service centers. The balance of the respondents was comprised of 6 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel […]