When it comes to the laws of supply and demand within the steel industry, many steel executives in their quarterly conference calls will reference steel service center inventories. As you look at the graphic below you can clearly see the trend change as steel service center inventories began to balloon in 4th Quarter 2014 and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
After negotiations were completed for February scrap pricing, the word being spread around the industry was to expect another drop in March, perhaps down $20 on most grades. However, the weather got brutal during the month and we are hearing that many dealers will not be able to complete deliveries on obsolete grades of ferrous […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
OK, I have been asked for my opinion as to what I think will happen to steel prices from this point. I have a sense that we may be entering a period of transition. A point where the price spreads between foreign and domestic are “reasonable” and the domestic steel industry can re-capture some of […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
As we listen to the domestic steel mills earnings conference calls, one of the items we focus on is their viewpoint regarding service center inventories. One year ago the domestic mills were touting the lack of inventory as being one of the drivers of orders which was keeping flat rolled steel prices high. That tune […]
Benchmark hot rolled coil prices dropped again this week as buyers struggled with an oversupplied HRC market due to high service center inventories, a continuation of high foreign imports and the collapse of the OCTG and line pipe markets due to weak oil prices. Couple those three items with more domestic supply than necessary for […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported steel distributor shipments and inventories on Monday. The MSCI reported U.S. shipments of all steel products totaled 3,135,700 tons during the month of December which was 6.3 percent higher than December 2013. The daily shipment rate was 142,500 tons per day. Total steel inventories (all products) were reported […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been dropping over the past few weeks and the wholesalers who service the mechanical contractors are concerned as the pace of the price decline quickens. Earlier today Steel Market Update participated in the HARDI sponsored galvanized steel conference call. HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International) wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and […]
The following is an overview of some of the key steel data collected by Steel Market Update during the month of December 2014. This is separate from our Key Market Indicators which was produced for our Premium level subscribers (although shared with all of our readers on Friday of this past week). Steel Market Update […]
Everyone wants to know how the steel industry did from our perspective over the calendar year 2014. We decided to take a look at the year using quarterly averages as a way of smoothing out the data and giving us a clearer picture of key data and commodity and steel pricing trends. As you can […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported total steel inventories of 9,195,700 tons. This represents an increase of 15.2 percent above last year and when taking the current shipment rate into consideration, MSCI reported inventories as being 33.1 percent higher than November 2013. The daily shipment rate dropped from 170,100 tons per day (all products) […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
Flat rolled steel prices began slipping once again as our benchmark hot rolled average broke through the $630 mark for the first time since the middle of March. The new average is now at the lowest level for the calendar year (tied with mid-March) and is poised to set a new low point for the […]
Flat rolled steel prices began to stabilize this past week after having peaked in the middle of August at $675 per ton (hot rolled) and then slowly sliding to a low of $630 per ton during the week ending November 1, 2014. The SMU HRC average actually rose slightly to $635 per ton this past […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early November flat rolled steel market survey this week. We invited approximately 600 companies to participate in the process. Of those participating 44 percent were manufacturing companies and 44 percent were steel service centers. The balance of the respondents was comprised of 6 percent trading companies, 5 percent steel […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered has been increased by one this month to thirty six. We have added the price of coking coal FOB the Australian East Coast to the raw […]
This article was written just prior to the AK Steel announcement of a $20 per ton price increase which we received after 5 PM this afternoon. Steel Market Update reported in a recent issue (SMU Oct. 23rd) recently that this is the time of the year that the domestic steel mills traditionally move to stem […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co reported record sales for third quarter of $2.71 billion on shipments of 1.5 million tons. Not only did the company have good results to report, the Reliance executives had good commentary to offer in their third quarter conference call. Reliance noted that their purchase of imported steel has increased from […]
SMU was reading a blog post put up by Metal Miner this morning regarding the consolidation of the steel industry. The main premise of the guest article from James May of Steel-Insight out of Canada, was 81 percent of the hot rolled production in the United States and Canada is controlled by four companies: ArcelorMittal, […]
One of the first things that we noticed when looking at the graph below is all of the “neutral” arrows (yellow arrows in SMU Pricing Momentum) going across the full spectrum of the table shown. We went back to see at what point did we move our Momentum to Neutral and found we made the […]
“Everyone wants business,” is how the conversation began with one of our Midwest service center sources. “Everyone has steel to sell,” is what he told us. However, he admitted that the bottom has not dropped out of this market. That feeling of concern was heard in a number of places. Flat rolled steel prices seem […]
Service center flat rolled shipments rose by 7 percent or, 1 percent more than we had forecast when we last produced our Apparent Excess/Deficit report for our Premium subscribers. Flat rolled shipments in July averaged 108,800 tons per day up from the 101,700 tons per day shipped last July. At the end of June we […]
One of the Steel Market Update proprietary products is our U.S. Service Center Apparent Inventory Excess/Deficit report and forecast. Once per month, SMU analyzes the MSCI flat rolled steel shipments and flat rolled steel inventories and we calculate whether the steel distributors are either over-inventories (excess) or under-inventoried (deficit) based on our proprietary formula. We […]
The service centers who sell secondary or excess prime flat rolled steels are reporting a very tight market as less material is being made available out of the steel mills and holes are developing in steel service center inventories. Secondary steel buying prices out of the domestic mills have been moving up but have not […]