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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    You may or may not be aware that we updated our Steel Market Update website over the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. We updated software that controls a number of the functions of our website in order to speed up the site and to make sure that it is up-to-date over the next few years of use. The process of updating the software has created some glitches in our site. One of the first we noticed was the inability to log in using your email address. That was quickly corrected. However, we continue to find “bugs” in the system. If you are stymied for any reason using our website, please send an email to info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will get our developers to work on a fix.

    One of the areas where we have found a glitch is in our Steel 101 registration system. Seems it doesn’t like us having one sold-out program (the January SSAB workshop which hasn’t happened yet) and another new one in the system (March in Merrilville, Ind., with a tour of NLMK USA ) at the same time. If you are unable to register for anything, please contact our office at 772-932-7538 or 706-216-2140 and we will make sure that your people are registered for whatever event you wish.

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    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.