US hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains at a premium to offshore product, even as recent price declines have brought domestic hot band to its lowest mark since mid-February, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
HRC tags stateside are down $285 per ton since peaking at $1,160 per ton back in mid-April, and are $115 per ton lower vs. a month ago. Despite the sharp price erosion, discount of foreign HRC over US product has not been as sharp due to declining tags for offshore product as well.
During the downward cycle at the end of 2022, domestic HRC held a price advantage over imported material for about four months. Repeated mill price hikes to kick off the year, ballooned the US premium over offshore hot band by more than $260 per ton.
Domestic hot band is now roughly 13% more expensive than foreign material, up from about 12% a week ago when the margin had reached its lowest since March 1. While it’s unclear if domestic mills will be successful in their latest efforts to increase prices, margins between domestic product and offshore hot band are likely to fluctuate more through seasonally slower summer months.
SMU uses the following calculation to identify this theoretical spread between foreign HRC prices (delivered to US ports) and domestic HRC prices (FOB domestic mills): Our analysis compares the SMU US HRC weekly index to the CRU HRC weekly indices for Germany, Italy, and east and southeast Asian ports. This is only a theoretical calculation because costs to import can vary greatly, influencing the true market spread.
In consideration of freight costs, handling, and trader margin, we add $90 per ton to all foreign prices to provide an approximate CIF US ports price to compare to the SMU domestic HRC price. Buyers should use our $90-per-ton figure as a benchmark and adjust up or down based on their own shipping and handling costs. If you import steel and want to share your thoughts on these costs, we welcome your insight at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Asian Hot-Rolled Coil (East and Southeast Asian Ports)
As of Thursday, June 29, the CRU Asian HRC price was unchanged vs. the prior week, holding at $526 per ton, and up $5 per ton from levels one month ago. Adding a 25% tariff and $90 per ton in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Asian HRC to the US is approximately $748 per ton. The latest SMU hot-rolled average is $875 per ton, sideways vs. our previous price update, but down $115 per ton compared to our price one month ago.
US-produced HRC is now theoretically $127 per ton more expensive than steel imported from Asia. That figure is unchanged week-on-week (WoW). This is still a reversal from mid-February when domestic HRC had a $13-per-ton advantage over HRC from Asian markets.
Italian Hot-Rolled Coil
Italian HRC prices also edged down WoW, $4 per ton lower to $648 per ton this week, and down $37 per ton from a month ago. After adding import costs, the delivered price of Italian HRC is approximately $738 per ton.
Domestic HRC is now theoretically $137 per ton more expensive than imported Italian HRC. That spread is up $3 per ton WoW but still represents nearly a $149-per-ton reversal compared to just a little over three months ago when US HRC was $12 per ton cheaper than Italian hot band.
German Hot-Rolled Coil
CRU’s latest German HRC price slipped by $12 per ton WoW to $671 per ton, down $65 per ton from a month ago. After adding import costs, the delivered price of German HRC is roughly $761 per ton.
Domestic HRC is now theoretically $114 per ton more expensive than imported German HRC. That’s up $12 per ton WoW, and a swing of $143 per ton given that German hot band was $29 per ton more costly than domestic HRC mid-February.
Figure 4 compares all four price indices. The chart on the right zooms in to highlight this year’s decoupling of US and offshore HRC prices.
Notes: Freight is an important consideration in deciding whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill, while foreign prices are CIF the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most markets, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel.
Effective Jan. 1, 2022, the traditional Section 232 tariff no longer applies to most imports from the European Union. it has been replaced by a tariff rate quota (TRQ). Therefore, the German and Italian price comparisons in this analysis no longer include a 25% tariff. SMU still includes the 25% Section 232 tariff on foreign prices from other countries. We do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.
By David Schollaert, email@example.com
David SchollaertRead more from David Schollaert
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