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    Analysis

    Final thoughts

    Written by Ethan Bernard


    Steel-tide Greetings

    ‘Twas two weeks before Christmas, and at our publication

    We kept logging steel price increases from across our fair nation.

    Up hot rolled, up cold rolled, and galvanized coil.

    On Galvalume and plate — gushing skyward — like a geyser of oil.

    Blink for a moment and you might miss a hike,

    Oh what a change from the United Auto Workers strike.

    –

    Discuss prices at your holiday party but do practice moderation

    As you sip on spiked eggnog and discuss decarbonization.

    Will the EU and US agree, or will we see some global sheriff

    Ride into Washington and pronounce a world carbon tariff?

    Maybe start a little smaller, a more realizable goal,

    Hang up our stockings and receive metallurgical coal.

    –

    Though it’s true some say Old Saint Nick is not real,

    The same can’t be said for the much vaunted “green steel.”

    Lower and lower the carbon goes, the greener it gets,

    Are we reaching net zero soon, is anyone taking bets?

    Carbon capture, hydrogen, the only limit’s the sky

    As long as we don’t end up getting taken over by AI.

    –

    Here at SMU, we wish you all a joyful holiday season.

    Join us soon in Tampa, in Florida, the weather sure is pleasin’.

    There’ll be much to learn and discuss, old and new friends aplenty,

    It will be 2024, a real blank slate, let’s finally forget 2020.

    So two weeks before Christmas, and if you’ve also got that holiday feel

    Don’t hesitate to drop us a tip: Who’s going to buy U.S. Steel?

    –

    Are you shivering through the season? Beat the winter blues and get a jump on all things steel at our 35th Annual Tampa Steel Conference. Rooms are filling up fast. Register here.

    Ethan Bernard

    Read more from Ethan Bernard

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    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

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    Ferrous scrap market chatter this month

    Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.